Ruble was deprived of prospects

18 May 2018, 12:22 | Economy
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Despite the record growth in oil quotes, the Russian currency is losing ground under the pressure of the dollar and the euro. Positive factors the ruble has already played, and new prospects for growth are not yet foreseen for it. According to the results of the trading session on the Moscow Stock Exchange, held on May 17, the dollar's rate rose by 45 cents, to 62.18 rubles. The euro rose by 42 kopecks, to 73.3 rubles. At today's session, the weakening of the ruble is likely to continue: players before the weekend have traditionally come out of the market, selling rubles and fixing profits. Yesterday, on world markets, oil prices for the first time since November 2014. rose above $ 80 per barrel. A decisive influence on the oil market continues to be the situation around Iran, which will be imposed by American sanctions. Because of this, there may be a deficit on the market, so the cost of black gold is growing. Nevertheless, following the results of yesterday's trading, the ruble was not able to take advantage of this support. Perhaps today, too, the Russian currency will not react to oil quotes. The fact is that the current price level is the ceiling. Speculators are afraid to buy oil futures from current levels, because they consider raw materials to be overvalued. In this regard, today the cost of oil can begin to decline. "The national currency currently has absolutely no prospects for growth to the main world currencies. We can see that even with fairly high oil prices resulting from geopolitical factors, the ruble is still relatively weak against the dollar and the euro. Taking into account other factors that are working to reduce the ruble, especially the sanctioning confrontation, there are no prospects for strengthening the ruble in the near future, "Igor Nikolayev, director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis of the company" Financial and Accounting Consultants, "rendered a disappointing verdict. In the company Alpari believe that the next week the ruble could lose all its safety factor and return to the unfavorable April levels. "For the ruble, geopolitical risks remain. Given the US plans to introduce new sanctions against Russia, I keep my forecast for the appreciation of the dollar and euro to 66.5 rubles and 82 rubles, respectively.

Negative smoothing expensive oil and tax period in Russia, "- believes analyst Vladislav Antonov.

The ruble can correct its positions if the stable growth of the dollar against the currencies of developing countries will be replaced by a correction. However, even under the most favorable development of events below 61 rubles, the US currency will not drop. "If the dollar in the coming days will mature correction, the ruble can make attempts to more confident recovery, provided that Brent does not attract aggressive profit-taking. The above-mentioned level of 61 rubles remains a key barrier on the way to strengthening the "Russian", - said Igor Kovalev, an analyst with the InstaForex Group of Companies.




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