Inflation in Russia has already decreased to the level indicated by it, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. A significant event happened on May 15 of this year.
"Given the observed in the first half of May and the expected normalization in the future of the dynamics of prices for fruit and vegetables, according to our estimates, inflation has already reached 4%," the special survey of the agency called "Inflationary picture".
The ministry believes that by the end of the year, the rate of price growth may even slow down to 2.9% if the ruble's exchange rate continues at the current level. At the same time, they emphasize that their basic forecast includes a weakening of the national currency. But even in this scenario, inflation will still be below the target level - it will grow by 3.8%.
As explained by analysts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the expected revival of consumer demand will have a deferred effect and will affect the price dynamics next year. It is very likely, they believe, that an accelerated decline in inflation will force the CBR to reduce interest rates as well. Actually, this will weaken the ruble, returning inflation to a level close to the target.
It is noteworthy that the Ministry of Economic Development issued a separate inflation document for the first time. Earlier this indicator was reviewed in the framework of the overall monitoring of the socio-economic situation in the country. Apparently, the struggle for the exchange rate of the national currency between the financial and economic bloc of the government and the Bank of Russia is exacerbating.
High rates of CBA - the main tool for containing inflation. They help attract international speculative capital in carry trade operations and strengthen the ruble. However, exporters and the state budget are interested in the fact that the national currency was slightly weaker.
Since the beginning of spring, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are actively attacking the ruble. First, Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance, spoke of his excessive fortress, in the opinion of which the ruble should be cheaper by 10-12%. Then he was joined by the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, who also repeatedly pointed to the unjustified high cost of the Russian currency.
Just the other day he predicted a depreciation of the ruble in the summer due to the growth in imports. "Imports of goods from us now from non-CIS countries are growing somewhere by 20-25% at the beginning of the year. If this trend is extended for the summer months and season is imposed, we will get a pretty serious current account deficit in just these months. Of course, it is unlikely that we will see that strong ruble, which is now with such a deficit in the balance of payments, "Oreshkin said in an interview with Rossiya 24,.
But while the verbal intervention of the Ministers of the special success in this struggle did not bring. Unlike the Central Bank, they do not possess real instruments of influence on the exchange rate. The regulator, in turn, made it clear that he still adheres to a fairly tight monetary policy.
Almost simultaneously with the Ministry of Economic Development, he also issued a special analytical note, explaining in detail why he does not like the weak ruble. According to the Bank of Russia, the policy of artificial understatement of the national currency rate leads to a deterioration in the well-being of the population and an increase in the technological gap of the country from the more developed countries.
Increasing the cost of imported equipment necessary for the development of modern enterprises, a weak currency, in fact, "subsidizes" simple but labor-intensive industries with low added value and low labor productivity. Such companies can compete in price at the expense of not too skilled, but cheap labor. But they still have to constantly reduce costs, including labor, to stay afloat.
In other words, having placed a stake on the weakening of the ruble, Russia will join the race to lower wages with the poorest countries. For a state where a developed industrial base has already been created, a shift towards such branches will be a kind of regression, the Central Bank.
The trouble is that a strong ruble, held by high rates, is not contributing to an increase in production efficiency. Deprived of access to cheap loans to companies, modern imported machines and machines are still too expensive.
To lower rates to the level that is necessary for the development of the economy, the regulator also can not, because the indicator of low inflation achieved through attracting speculators is extremely unstable, and it is perfectly understood in the Central Bank.
In fact, the Bank of Russia has trapped itself by taking the wrong landmark. "It was originally such a self-generating monetary and credit model that led to low inflation in the cemetery. We are already close, we have already approached the cemetery. The Central Bank, naturally, does not want to send us there voluntarily, but he also does not see other options, "- explained" Utra "professor of the department of financial management of the REU named after G. Plekhanov Konstantin Ordov.
According to the expert, now the Central Bank has rested its head on the wall and does not understand what to do next. A tangible reduction in rates will lead to an outflow of speculative capital, and the ruble rate will again fly down, and prices will rise. If you do nothing, the economy will not develop.
"And why then inflation is 4%, if all the same everything is expensive - mortgages, loans for companies? That's all the senselessness of this policy. Initially suggested: let's talk about why we need these 4%. As a result, it became an end in itself. For the sake of this goal, we have been killing the economy for three years. Killed. Came. What's next? No one knows. Hence, the goal, probably, was wrong. Why do we talk today about currency devaluation if 4% of inflation was seen as a panacea for all ills? Where is the result of this miracle achieved by us? "- the expert rhetorically asks.
It turns out that monetary policy needs to be changed, whatever one may say. But devaluing the ruble without a clear understanding, to what extent it should fall, and what exactly the result it should bring for the economy, is also wrong. Otherwise the result will be the same. All cream will be removed by exporters. Of course, then some part of their income will be redistributed to other spheres, more firmly sitting the country on the "raw needle". But in general, the economic degradation will continue.