WP: NATO saved regarding the war in Ukraine, but what could go wrong?

30 June 2022, 14:44 | Peace
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NATO's solidarity was evident at the Madrid summit this week. One by one, officials promised to stay the course and fight the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which was staged by Vladimir Putin..

But as the war drags on into the summer and Ukrainian civilians continue to die from horrendous missile strikes, NATO needs to ask itself how its strategy could have failed.. One can imagine analyzing a hypothetical “red team” to identify vulnerabilities that could offset the current advantages of Ukraine’s allies and lead to defeat in the conflict..

American journalist and writer David Ignatius writes about this in an article for the Washington Post.. If you look at the results now, it becomes clear that Putin has failed his military goals.. Russian troops are mired in a bloody battle of attrition. Ukraine did not submit to the hegemony of Moscow and received the status of a candidate country for joining the European Union. NATO is enjoying a renaissance as it strengthens its eastern and northern flanks. Sweden and Finland join alliance. Meanwhile, Russia is on the way to losing its share of the European energy market.. In addition, she risks being left without Western technology..

The West is sending a 'clear signal' to Putin, US President Joe Biden said during a summit in Madrid. The Pentagon plans to deploy the headquarters of the army corps in Poland. In addition, the US is sending more troops to the Baltic states and Romania, two additional destroyers to Spain and two more F-35 fighter squadrons to the UK.. What can go wrong? A hypothetical "

The biggest challenge is the battlefield itself. US and UK intelligence analyzes point to the start of a slow, static campaign in Donbas in which the Ukrainian army will be able to contain Russian breakthroughs with Western MLRS, additional artillery ammunition and more surface-to-air missiles. But what if the flow of weapons is too slow or not enough? The Pentagon has limited the supply of MLRS, waiting for " The delivery of other types of weapons was also too slow.. And the amount of weapons transferred by the allies is significantly less than what the Ukrainians would like to have on the battlefield..

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As an example, the author cites Switchblade drones capable of attacking Russian tanks, ships or command centers.. There are two models of these systems, one of which - a smaller one - can fly up to 15 minutes, and the other - a large one - can stay in the sky for up to 40 minutes.. In March, the Biden administration announced plans to send the first batch of 400 such small drones to Ukraine.. But sources said the Pentagon sent only 10 units of the large model.. The Ukrainian military asked for several thousand of each Switchblade model. But the United States did not react to this in any way.. Drones are manufactured by AeroVironment..

Political fatigue is another problem for the US and its NATO allies. The war in Ukraine is quite popular now. But dissatisfaction will definitely grow along with higher fuel prices in the US and a reduction in gas supplies to Europe before winter.. Voters will start asking why governments don't spend money on domestic needs..

“At the NATO summit conference organized by the German Marshall Fund, I heard calls for a Ukrainian victory from representatives of Germany, Poland, Latvia, Romania, Greece, Spain, the UK and the US. They all said the fight was worth the sacrifice. At the same time, many of them were dismayed by the lack of significant political support in their countries..

G7 leaders discussed two of the most difficult issues during their meeting in Germany this week: how to lower energy prices and alleviate food shortages caused by the Russian blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports. G7 countries have ideas, but almost no clear plans. These two problems cannot be put off until later.. The price will be too high for the West.

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The author believes that NATO did the right thing when it decided to avoid direct attacks on Russia. After all, this could lead to a catastrophic nuclear escalation.. But this does not mean that Ukraine should not respond when Russia fires missiles at it from its territory..

If Putin uses the Russian regions for unpunished missile launches in an illegal war, then the inviolability of Russian borders disappears. If Ukraine can stop Russia on the battlefield, it will decide what kind of peace deal it wants.. Because unconditional surrender to a nuclear Russia is unlikely. However, this diplomatic moment, most likely, will not come soon.. Of course, Ukraine has to directly wage this war. But NATO must plan its strategy as if the credibility and survival of the alliance itself were at stake..




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