The priority task of Ukraine is called the achievement of progress in the east, according to the Voice of America.

Expert Brookings Institution and former US Ambassador to Ukraine Stephen Pifer believes that the only scenario where Ukraine could succeed is if Ukraine built such a successful economy that people in Crimea would understand that they would like to be more Part of Ukraine than Russia.

"There is no military solution to the Ukrainian situation. Economic sanctions can be painful for Russians and increase the price of occupation, but I do not think that economic measures will force Mr. Putin to change his course. A more realistic course is that Vladimir Putin is in the Kremlin until 2026. The only scenario according to which I think Ukraine could succeed is if Ukraine built such a successful economy that the Crimeans, people in the Crimea, would understand that they would like to be more part of Ukraine than Russia, "says Pifer.

Symbolically, during the third anniversary of the annexation of the Crimea, Russia began on the peninsula large-scale military exercises. To ensure security, NATO and the United States must increase their military presence in the Black Sea region, says Steven Pifer.

"This corresponds to the line of behavior that Russia has adhered to throughout the last three years, with an increase in the number of military exercises. NATO is monitoring this and I think the alliance should take steps to demonstrate to Moscow its readiness to defend itself and to make Russia refuse such actions. But it will be difficult to do. In the current situation, I would prefer to impose additional sanctions on Russia because of its actions in the Donbass and Crimea. However, if to speak really, now the main thing is to preserve the current sanctions regime, both from Europe and from the US, "he said..

Expert of the Atlantic Council Analytical Center Anders Aslund expects that Russia will seek participation in new military campaigns. According to his observations, every small military victory adds to Putin's rating. Russians have only miscalculated with the Donbas, he says..

"We observed small Russian victories in Georgia in 2008, and then Putin had the highest popularity in Russia ever. Then there was the annexation of the Crimea - and 88% of the population's support. I think we should expect more small military victories in Russia. The problem with the Donbass, that there was no victory. Syria for Russia, probably the best war. So now the question is: where will we see the next war. This is the essence of the Putin regime, "says Oslund.

Former Pentagon spokesman Michael Carpenter agrees and does not rule out that Putin will seek small victories among his neighbors.

"When I worked at the State Department on Georgia's issues in 2008, during the war, then raised a fuss about a possible Russian military intervention in the Crimea. And then our concern was rejected as ridiculous. Well, it took several years - and it happened. Today I do not think it's ridiculous to think that this can happen in Northern Kazakhstan or Belarus. In fact, the Russians very clearly declared Lukashenko: if you do not deal with the protests, we will do it for you.

And I have no doubt that Russia will be more than pleased to intervene forcefully in Belarusian affairs if they feel that the regime is losing control over the situation, "says Michael Carpenter, former assistant to the Pentagon's deputy head for Ukraine and Eurasia.

Carpenter recommended that the Western countries increase pressure on Russia, in particular, significantly increase the military presence of NATO and the United States in the Black Sea region.