Russia will almost certainly need to achieve a breakthrough on the Severodonetsk - Popasnaya axis - British intelligence

This weekend, Ukrainian troops recaptured part of Severodonetsk, although Russian troops continue to occupy the eastern districts of the city. Russia's broader plan probably remains to cut off the Severodonetsk agglomeration from both the north and the south. British intelligence reports.

Russia has made progress south of Popasna, but its progress in the area has stalled over the past week. Reports of heavy shelling near Izyum indicate that Russia is preparing for new efforts in the north of this axis.

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