Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makey recently issued a statement, which in many media was perceived as the possibility of placing a Russian military base on the territory of Belarus: "At the moment we do not plan to deploy new foreign military bases in Belarus. But, looking to the future, it is necessary to take into account the steps our neighbors will take ".
At first glance, everything is clear and obvious. But, if you look a little wider, Belarus, having the opportunity to "play on the side of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian issue" took a completely different position, increasing trade with its southern neighbor, including helping Ukraine to restore its armed forces.
On the other hand, almost simultaneously with Makey, President Alexander Lukashenko made his statements: "We are not with Russia against Europe and not with Europe against Russia and the whole East. For us, in principle, we do not accept the question with whom we ". A little later he added that there is a need to strengthen the border troops by servicemen of the armed forces in the number of 2 to 5 thousand.
Belarusian analysts do not rule out that such an increase is possible just along the Russian border, since Russia on its side is building a full-fledged border security infrastructure. Moreover, at the meeting with the border guards the Belarusian president clarified his idea: "But we can not be like the Russians. They themselves do not understand what they want and what they do on the Belarusian-Russian border. Let be defined. Determine - we have no problem answering. We are ready at any time to respond adequately. If they want to close the border - please. They will close - we in return must also enter control at the border ".
The funniest thing is that the FSB of Russia really builds up a permanent infrastructure, accepts people for five-year contracts. That is, Belarus is formally, even in the event of the restoration of border control (which in the mode of temporary patrolling, and so it is) will only respond to Russia's unfriendly move.
In short, there are enough news for all - Ukrainian media, eager to see a potential threat to Ukraine from the north, take Makeya's words, Russian, in turn, cite Lukashenko's anger and resent "rewriting the history of World War II in Belarus".
JUDGING ON BUSINESS OR BEGINNING OF ACADEMICS But statements are one thing, and deeds are quite another. At the moment, large-scale exercises of NATO troops have begun in the Baltic countries, in which 18,000 servicemen from 19 countries. Theoretically, if you look at Belarus as a faithful ally of the Russian Federation and as a basis to take Makey's statements, in Minsk you should have strained, strengthened the readiness of the troops, made a number of high-profile statements,.
The exercises, it should be noted, began. KGB publishes relevant statement on its website. We are talking about a complex event in which the armed forces, the border committee, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, local authorities and special services of the country. Scenario - the destruction of an illegal armed formation that has arrived from abroad.
So far, everything is smooth - here he is, NATO's response. Yes, there is only one misfortune - the exercises are held in the Mogilev region, and the only border there is the border with Russia. Accordingly, there are not so many variants of the origin of "illegal armed groups arrived from abroad". On the peculiarities of these maneuvers I made a short video:.
In Belarus they learn to kill "polite people", "green men" or, more simply, Russian mercenaries and saboteurs.
As for NATO, in 2014 the military doctrine was changed in Belarus, it was revised in 2016 in a new version. The document no longer mentions threats from the North Atlantic Alliance. As there is no direct mention of this alliance.
The same goes for the CSTO - mentioning only in three points, and even there:.
in n. 15 defines and introduces an abbreviation and contains a rule on "the right of Belarus in case of aggression to apply to CSTO states for help";.
in n. 20. 2, which deals with the peacekeeping potential of the organization and "strengthening the status of the CSTO in the international arena as a whole";.
in n. 22. 15 speaks about the system of collective security within the framework of this association. True, immediately the thesis expands into a common security space in the CIS;.
and in. 23. 3, where the CSTO is listed as a platform for diplomatic settlement of contradictions along with the UN and "other international organizations".
The mention of the so-called "Union State of Belarus and Russia" is even less.
But as threats of independence, national security are indicated:.
attempts by individual states (coalitions of states) to ensure their leadership without taking into account the interests of all subjects of international relations;.
the use of military force in circumvention of existing norms of international law;.
"interference in the internal affairs of individual states, including European ones" that provoke internal armed conflicts with a large-scale integrated use of military force both in traditional forms and traditional ways, and with the use of sabotage and terrorist methods of warfare; ".
use of information-communication and information-psychological methods and technologies for aggressive purposes.
Naturally, Belarus is not directly called Russia as a threat - why from scratch, stupid casting of slogans generate conflicts and problems, when you need to gradually work.
Gradually a change of personnel takes place in the law enforcement agencies - first of all, not the army, but special services, special forces. The process gained momentum back in 2016 - what I was writing about was quite voluminous text. In 2017, the personnel cleansing continued, especially after successful provocations in the form of information throws in the "West 2017" and the abduction of Ukrainian Paul Grib. A simple example - in October 2017, the entire leadership of the operational and analytical center under the president was removed. By the way, the structure then received new leaders.
If we talk about the exercises, then only in the last 2.5 years, at least 4 events took place, which worked out the option of countering "polite people". Even more important progress was made in the work on the rearmament of the army. Belarus is creating new models together with China, and, as in the case of MLRS "Polonaise", not allowing leakage of information to "union Russia". Even the vehicles of the armed forces, which used to be equipped with Russian vehicles (especially armored vehicles), went over to their chassis or the products of the Chinese military industry.
At the last parade in honor of Independence Day in the front convoy there was not a single car with Russian roots. In Minsk, it is not for nothing that the PRC is called its strategic partner. And speaking of Lukashenka's fears, he is not the most troubled by the problems with the Russian Federation (or the Russian Federation with the rest of the world), he is scared of the large-scale conflict between the Middle Kingdom and the United States.
"The main threat, as I see it, is the clash of interests of large states. See what happens. The main clash is the US with China, "he said on June 1, communicating with border guards and their families when visiting the Divin border posts in Kobrin district. It is logical, because it is with these two centers of power that he tries feverishly to establish relations, seeking to find a counterbalance to the Kremlin. China - technology, military-industrial complex, money. USA - political assistance, the same technologies and markets.
AND WHAT'S NEXT And then everything will go on as usual. Objective interests of Belarus as a state in balancing the influence of Russia by other centers of power coincided with those of citizen Lukashenko. But Ukraine's experience before his eyes. Therefore, Belarus will not make harsh statements, continuing to balance at the level of rhetoric of politicians. And at the same time - try to attract as much as possible strong players from the powerful countries.
For slogans, values, in case of problems, no one will defend Belarus (especially considering the identity of the "last dictator of Europe" until recently). But for their own economic interests, the opportunity to receive political services, the powerful of this world can stand up for. Knowingly, when talking about cooperation with China, Belarus primarily attracts state military corporations - for private business, the PRC does not like to make picks, and government money protects hard.
With the US it's even easier - you can sell weapons to the Syrian opposition (which then kill Russian mercenaries), you can help Ukraine, earning in parallel and on that and that. The main thing in this scheme is to be necessary. Not close, not sharing "bright ideals", but necessary - here and now.
In the rhetoric of official Minsk nothing will change in the near future - talks about friendship with Russia will continue to go on. After all, the scheme of the work of "slogans in exchange for money", when Minsk speaks about brotherly love (while emasculating documents on the rapprochement of countries), and Moscow pays for it, has been working since the beginning of zero - from the moment when Lukashenka realized that his idea "to sit down in the Kremlin throne after surrendering Belarus "will not work under Putin.
In Belarus there is a good saying "the language of matlaci not myah tsyagats" (it is not necessary to drag tongues with tongue). On the one hand, loud statements are good and beautiful. But it is the carrying of weights that creates the foundation for future designs of national security. The exercises, in which the siloviki, security services, the army, local authorities are involved in the complex, are just referring to "mechy tsyagats". And the "language" remains for applications, pleasant RF - the scheme "slogans in exchange for money" while working.
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