WP: Ukraine offensive changes Zelensky and Putin's calculations

13 September 2022, 21:53 | Ukraine
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Ukraine celebrates biggest breakthrough in war against Russian invaders. But let's try to imagine how this conflict can be viewed by leaders on both sides of the front line, one of whom has just won an extraordinary victory, and the other has suffered an unpleasant defeat..

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is a bright, albeit unlikely hero. He listened to his generals when they deceived and lured Russian troops into a trap.. The Ukrainian President rallied his extraordinarily brave fellow citizens and coaxed and shamed the West into providing serious military assistance..

American journalist and writer David Ignatius writes about this in an article for the Washington Post, noting that the Ukrainian army perfectly planned its offensive.. The initial attack in the direction of Kherson was not a hoax. It was a big strategic blow that could push Russian troops out of the right bank of the Dnieper. But the Ukrainian army launched an offensive in the Kherson region, while the Russian forces were “sleeping” there..

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No one was in a hurry to join the fight. The Ukrainian army first weakened Russian defense lines, then broke through them last week in a devastating offensive that forced Russian forces into a hasty retreat..

“Zelensky refused to negotiate from a weak position. Now, after seven unbearable months, he has a position of strength. Addressing his country, he speaks of the liberation of all Ukrainian territories. But he should know that it's impossible now. And the moment may be approaching when Zelensky, in his new dominant position, will open the door to diplomacy.. Even if the Russians rejected his gesture, it would still reinforce the impression that Zelensky has an advantage, ”the author believes..

He also offers to " In the last round of the confrontation, he lost. But he's also someone who can't afford to be seen as a loser.. What Putin was doing as his troops fled the battlefield in the Kharkiv region over the weekend? He opened the Ferris wheel at the celebration of Moscow Day.

Putin always wanted the war against Ukraine to be a conflict that continues " So that Russians can watch it on TV while Chechens and Dagestanis shed blood. For Russia, this is not even a real war, but a special operation against a country that, according to Putin, allegedly does not exist.. Most Russians seem to support the war because they share Russian autocrat's grievances against NATO and the US.

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Putin's problem now is that all these viewers in Moscow and St. Petersburg now see what a failure this “non-war” of the Russian leader has become.. His biggest fans with numerous Telegram channels and even some commentators on state television say Russian forces have suffered a heavy defeat.. Serious accusations flew against the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. But so far no one is blaming Putin himself. Maybe no one will ever do it. This is the whole beauty of the system that he created.. There is no one in Russia who could literally replace him. If Putin does not become tomorrow, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the former head of the tax service of the Russian Federation, will become the interim leader of Russia.. Heard about him? Of course not. That's the whole point.

Putin expected to easily enter Kyiv in the first week of the war, but was forced to retreat. He hoped that his terrible tanks and artillery would destroy the defense of Ukraine in the Donbass, but the situation reached a dead end.. And now the Ukrainian army has shown Russia what a maneuver war is in the Kherson and Kharkov regions.. How will Putin respond to this This is the question that will cause sleepless nights for the CIA and the US National Security Council in the coming days..

Putin can reformulate the concept of victory. He can say that the special operation never provided for the occupation of Khersons and Kharkov. And the goal has always been to protect Donetsk and Lugansk, which Moscow occupied in 2014.. He can also say that it was necessary to protect the Crimea - a sentimental prize for which Putin could risk starting a large-scale war..

Or Putin could respond aggressively by stepping up his attacks against Ukraine and even its Western allies.. He outlined a number of red lines that were affected. He demanded that Kyiv not be supplied with lethal weapons, but the Biden administration did it anyway. Putin threatened that the Ukrainian army would not receive precision-guided weapons like HIMARS artillery systems capable of destroying Russian command centers. But Biden did that too..

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But what now? This is one reason why Zelensky would be better off avoiding strategic overload.. As destructive and reckless as Putin has been so far, he could do something even worse.. Perhaps that is why Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny warned last week that Russia could escalate the conflict into a " In his forecasts, he ran ahead, perhaps to destroy the plans of the Russian leader. Zaluzhny also talked about the decisive battles ahead, which will take place in 2023..

His message seems to be that Ukraine is preparing for a long war..

The Biden administration has consistently repeated three key claims about this war.. First, she emphasized her support for Ukraine and her intention to provide weapons necessary for self-defense. Secondly, the US does not want to go to war with Russia. And thirdly, Washington believes that this conflict will end in peace talks.. After the successful Ukrainian offensive, all three goals should become even more relevant.




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