The reports of the Iraqi Ministry of Defense on the complete release of Mosul from the militants of the terrorist group "Islamic State" should not be regarded not only as a victory over the IG in general, but even as a serious achievement at the level of Iraq,.

The government rushed to make the world happy with the news that there were no more districts left in Mosul, no other exit except surrender, they do not appear, the presence of the IG in Iraq "ended forever", "the pseudo-state collapsed".

However, all these victorious reports seem premature. Earlier analysts predicted that in the event of the defeat of militants in Iraq, they could easily change the dislocation - to flee to Syria, to other countries - for example, after failing in Syria, to focus on south-west and south Asia. Predicting and other "decisions" of terrorists who have, where to go. In addition, at the end of last year, observers predicted that even after Mosul's mopping up of militants, the city's future will depend on the conflict between the Iraqi Shiite militia PMU, officially subordinate to the Iraqi Defense Ministry, but actually receiving orders from Iran, and Sunni Muslims trained by the Turks.

Military expert, deputy director of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Evseev agrees with this point of view: the current victory is not irreversible, and the release of Mosul may end in the fact that it again falls into the hands of Islamists, said the expert, "Utru".

"Islamists have not disappeared, some of the militants are in Mosul itself in the guise of civilians, waiting for the team to start beating the city back. So it's too early to be happy, and all the more worthwhile to be cautious with statements that the liberation of Mosul can lead to victory over the "Islamic state" - neither will it lead to the capture of Rakka. Palmyra was also released first, but then the militants seized it back - until the new liberation. So all these processes are reversible, "- said the analyst.

Undoubtedly, the "Islamic state" is weakened, but it is still able to conduct active actions. The problem is that the US, hiding behind the fight against terrorism, is solving its own national tasks and pursuing its own interests, effectively refusing to cooperate with the Russian Federation to fight the IG,. Yevseyev. "They want to do everything themselves, but they will not succeed until the end. Such is the activity of the United States, which does not involve international cooperation with Russia, allows the "Islamic state" to continue to exist, "he said..

As for Mosul, any victory will be attributed by the Americans to themselves not because they actively participated there, but because America controls the world's media, the interlocutor of "Utra". "Any victory can be explained by American participation in this process. This applies to Mosul - they say, without America, he would never have been freed in his life. Although in fact, if Americans behaved differently, a victory could be achieved realistically, including in Racco. But the US unwillingness to cooperate results in the consequences that we are all seeing today, "the analyst said..

From Mosul, some of the militants could go to the Syrian city of Deir ez Zor (where previously the IG reportedly transferred its so-called capital from Rakka) - it's easy for Raccoq not to get there now, the roads around it are controlled, but Deir ez -Zor is quite available. "They can come to other Iraqi provinces, controlled by the" Islamic state ". While they have enough places, where they can migrate, especially since they can move freely enough. Therefore, do not expect an early victory over the IG, "the expert predicts.

In turn, according to the forecasts of the analytical group Conflict Monitor under the international expert organization IHS Markit, the IG remains less than a year: the group is rapidly losing revenues and control over the territory. "The last three years have shown that the project of creating a" state "by this group has failed. The ups and downs in development alternated quickly, but soon a constant decline followed, "said IHS Markit chief analyst for Columbia Strack.