Working dinner in Ankara on September 27 between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not become productive and clearly did not pass in the emotional atmosphere. Erdogan announced this immediately after a conversation with the President of the United States, Donald Trump in New York. It was expected that the negotiations between Russia and Turkey could harmonize the conflict processes in Syria. But the two leaders, accompanied by their foreign ministers and the heads of the General Staffs, were unable to achieve this goal. Putin announced that new conditions are needed to "end the fratricidal war in Syria". Erdogan just mentioned the operations in the Idlib de-escalation zone. The Turkish president also called the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan illegal and erroneous, while his Russian counterpart generally avoided this topic. And, apparently, the "detailed and frank exchange of views" of the two leaders has not really come about, says the political scientist, Professor of the Institute for Peace Studies (Oslo) Pavel Baev.
As expected, the mass striving of Iraqi Kurds for independence can transform the whole geography of Middle Eastern conflicts. And here Moscow is in a rather dubious position. Indeed, the only official reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry was a commentary that simultaneously expressed support for both the Kurds and the territorial integrity of Iraq. And although there has been a lot of speculation in the Russian press about possible new wars in the region, Moscow is clearly interested in using Kurdish factions in its relations with quasi-allies: Turkey and Iran.
Putin's words about ending the civil war in Syria were not just another attempt to give out wishful thinking. Russia is looking for ways to get out of the conflict in which she intervened two years ago. Russian citizens no longer applaud the missile attacks of the Russian army in Syria, and the death of Lieutenant-General Valery Asapov in Syria "spoiled" victorious statistics in official propaganda. Russia's attempts to blame for this failure the US and the Islamic state looked like a crude fake even according to Kremlin standards.
Another side of the Syrian conflict, which affects Russia's interests, is Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to establish warm relations with Putin. Nevertheless, he is clearly annoyed by the recent visit of the Hamas delegation to Moscow. Israel and the United States have a common position on the unacceptability of Iran's military presence in Syria. At the same time, Russia is fully aware that the regime of Bashar Assad will survive only with the support of official Tehran. This month, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu should go to Israel to smooth out Russian-Israeli disagreements.
Having started the war in Syria, Russia did not receive sufficient resources and is probably unhappy with the fact that the recent death of General Asapov did not cause a significant public outcry. By the way, in the state budget for 2018-2020, the Kremlin significantly reduced its defense spending, but the provision for internal security has been increased.
It is obvious that Russian intermediary services in the Middle East "fell in price", and military intervention in Syria turned into a too prolonged operation with an unclear outcome. However, unlike the clearly deadlocked situations in which Russia found itself after the annexation of the Crimea and the aggression in the Donbas, Syria is a disaster, but Russia can still avoid it. True, with the consequences of external interference will have to fight Turkey, Iran, Israel and Kurdistan.
Translation of HB.