Russia is on track for new oil profits as the war in the Middle East pushes prices up and simultaneously increases demand for Russian raw materials, Bloomberg writes..

According to Argus Me? ia, the key export brand Urals in the first 13 days of April was sold in the western ports of Russia for an average of $106.30 per barrel. This is 42% more than in March, when prices also rose amid the escalation of the conflict.

Russia actually became one of the beneficiaries of the war, since the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz limited energy supplies from the Middle East and unbalanced global markets. The turbulence has pushed the price of Urals well above the $59 per barrel budgeted for in Russia for 2026—exactly the scenario the government was counting on when it increased spending last month..

Oil taxes in Russia are calculated based on the price of Urals with a monthly delay, so the effect of March growth will begin to be reflected in the budget this month.

The growth in income in ruble terms is especially noticeable, because higher prices mean more rubles from each taxable barrel. In March, the average price of Urals, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government data and Argus indicators, jumped to 6,191 rubles.

If the current average April price holds and the ruble remains stable, Urals could rise to around 8,300 rubles per barrel - the highest level since March 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Each additional dollar in the average annual price of Urals brings about 150 billion rubles (about $2 billion) in additional tax revenues from the oil and gas sector, noted economist Olga Belenkaya from Finam in Moscow.. According to her estimates, in April alone, Russia’s income from this industry could amount to 900-950 billion rubles compared to 617 billion rubles in March.

At the same time, despite the benefits from the war in the Middle East, Russia continues to experience regular Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure, which could undermine these windfall profits. The consequences of the attacks could be reflected in revenue from the mineral extraction tax, which depends on production volumes.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in a report on Tuesday that Russia may find it difficult to increase production above the level at the beginning of the first quarter due to damage to port and energy infrastructure..

According to IEA estimates, in March daily oil production in Russia amounted to about 9 million barrels - 230 thousand barrels less than a year ago.. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimates production at 9.167 million barrels per day, consistent with a three-month decline..