Sergei Shevchenko - about the intrigue of the two final rounds. Champions League, Europa League and the struggle for survival!.
Until the end of the Serie A draw in the season-2017/18 there are only two rounds. It will be hot and unpredictable, but all this does not concern the struggle for "Scudetto". The race race looked extremely tempting after the unexpected success of Napoli in Turin, but quickly came to naught. The key was the dramatic victory of Juventus over Inter, which not only gave three points to the "bianconeri", but also seems to have disheartened the already exhausted Napoli players in their chances to win the championship. Neapolitans the next day failed in Florence (0: 3), and even later the tour lost points in the match with Torino and fell behind by six points. Now the chances of the team of Maurizio Sarri to win the championship are only theoretical. For this, two victories of Napoli and two defeats of Juventus are not enough in themselves. It is also necessary that the southerners catch up with the competitor on the difference-scored missed (for personal meetings they have equality), and this difference is +61 for Juve and +45 for Napoli. Massimiliano Allegri on the threshold of a unique achievement: four in a row "golden double" in the top championship.
Let's look at the calendar of the remaining matches. For convenience, we will single out the teams leading the tournament fight with a certain color: applicants for places in the Champions League - blue, in the European League - green, fighters for survival - red. Several matches have a special intrigue, because both teams will be extremely motivated. Now - more. We remind at once that in Italy, after the points scored, personal meetings are considered, and then the total difference of the scored-missed.
The 37th round (May 12-13) The 38th round (May 20) Benevento - Genoa Cagliari - Atalanta Inter - Sassuolo Chievo - Benevento Bologna - Chievo Genoa - Torino Crotone - Lazio Juventus - Verona Fiorentina - Cagliari Lazio - Inter Verona - Udinese Milan - Fiorentina Torino - Spal Napoli - Crotone Atalanta - Milan Sassuolo - Roma Roma - Juventus Spal - Sampdoria Sampdoria - Napoli Udinese - Bologna Champions League In the group stage of the Champions League teams get ranked from first to fourth Current position in the table: 3. Roma - 73, 4. Lazio - 71, 5. Inter - 69 By personal meetings: Inter pass Roma (3: 1g, 1: 1d), Roma bypasses Lazio (2: 1d, 0: 0g), Inter and Lazio in the first round played 0: 0 About a month ago we already covered this theme. If anyone has met expectations, it's Roma. It is indeed more stable than competitors. Team Di Francesco withstood even the workload in the later stages of the Champions League, although it was not easy for her. Hardest was the match against Cagliari, when Roma played against the backdrop of devastation after matches with Liverpool. According to the game, the islanders looked even more preferable, but the Romans for some time showed an excellent implementation, and Alisson rescued.
Now for a guaranteed place in the Champions League Roma, it's enough to take at least one point. The fact is that Inter and Lazio meet each other in the last round. Accordingly, they can not simultaneously collect six points for two rounds. There is a layout that knocks out Roma from the Champions League (two Roma wins, Inter and Lazio wins in the 37th round, Lazio's loss in the 38th), but even a draw with Juventus makes it impossible. This very draw, which is characteristic, will suit the head of Juve. Will these two teams give a remake of the match Denmark-Sweden to Euro-2004 or will the principle prevail? Bookmakers consider Roma the favorite, which is more motivated and has convincing statistics of home matches with Juventus.
Where there is more intrigue in the Inter and Lazio race. "Biancochols" pleasantly surprised, heroically defeating Fiorentina (4: 3!) And Torino, but the complex calendar took its. The leaders of Lazio, Ciro Immobile and Luis Alberto. The best scorer of the championship broke down in Turin, the best assistant - in the course of a draw with Atalanta, which Lazio could well lose, if not for Saves Strakosi. Both leading players will accurately miss far from passing game with Croton fighting for survival and not the fact that they will recover to a frontal fight with Inter. These are irreplaceable losses. Caicedo does not have the scoring instinct and mobility of Immobile (sounds puns, given the translation of the name of Ciro), and Felipe Anderson is a dribbling master, but by no means a draw, as Luis Alberto succeeds. Hope, rather, on Milinkovich-Savich with his versatile skills and, of course, on Simone Inzaghi.
Inter, in turn, scored a move. "Neradzurri" stopped stumbling in matches with middle peasants, outsiders, and Juventus was given a great game, losing in many respects because of the judging decisions and cowardice of Spalletti, who at 2: 1 replaced Ikardi at Santon. Interiors fall behind Lazio by two points, so they will most likely need to win at Olympique in the final round match. The task is possible, considering the personnel problems of Lazio and the excellent form of a number of Inter players (Ikardi, Rafinha, Kansela). A separate topic is the motivation of Stefan de Vray, the leading defender of Lazio, who leaves the team in the summer and with a high probability will be just the same in Inter.
Forecast: Roma will be the third, Inter fourth the Europa League. In the group stage of the league the teams that took the fifth and sixth places get into the qualifying round ЛЕ - the team that took the seventh place Current position in the table: 6. Milan - 60, 7. Atalanta - 59, 8. Fiorentina - 57, 9. Sampdoria - 54 (the chances of the Genoese are only theoretical) Here everything revolves around Milan, who lost the Cup final, and now, if ordered, will meet with two direct competitors. The status of the cup finalist does not give a pass to the Europa League, so now the team of Gattuso is required to protect this ticket through the championship. The task is not at all the scale that would correspond to a loud transfer campaign, but if you do not follow it, the decision to sign a contract with Gennaro until 2021 should be accurately recorded in hasty and erroneous.
To successfully solve the problem, Milan should not lose any of the two matches or win at least one of them. Theoretically, you can even give Atalante and play 0: 0 with Fiorentina (in Florence there were 1: 1, the overall difference scored-missed is better for "violets"). Also, Milanese should cheer for Cagliari, who plays with both competitors. All these options look humiliating for the wards of Gattuso, but the nightmare second half in the Cup final makes them seriously consider, because it is unknown how Milan will withstand this blow. The team is unstable psychologically, so the final two rounds - checking mainly for Reno himself, such a test for professionalism.
If Milan deal with his problems, then the struggle for the LE will be reduced to the race of Atalanta with Fiorentina. Their calendar is the most equal, and even for personal encounters equality (two draws of 1: 1), but the difference between the balls is better at Atalanta, and most importantly - bergamaski ahead by two points. Fiorentina must be rooting for Milan in the 37th round. If the Rossoneri win, they will give the "violets" an opportunity to bypass the Atalanta, and they themselves will accept the Florentines, not having a tournament motivation. Another question is that Atalanta beat Milan on the road with a score of 2-0, and now scored a decent form - six wins and three draws in the last nine matches.
The most interesting thing is the alignment with the victories of Atalanta and Fiorentina in the 37th round. Then Milan and Fiorentina will have 60 points each and will meet each other. Along with the match between Inter and Lazio, you can get another mini-final.
Forecast: Atalanta - sixth place, Milan - seventh Survival Three last teams (18-20 places) are flying out Current position in the table: 14. SPAL - 35, 15. Chievo 34, 16. Crotone - 34, 17. Udinese - 34, 18. Cagliari - 33 Personal meetings. There are so many information that it is better to simplify it somewhat, since all the matches between these teams have already been played.
SPAL: bypasses Crotone and Udinese, gives way to Chievo and Cagliari Chievo: bypasses Udinese and Cagliari, inferior to Spal and Crotone Crotone: bypasses Chievo, gives way to Spal, Udinese and Cagliari Udinese: bypasses Crotone, inferior to Spal, Chievo and Cagliari Cagliari: bypasses SPAL, Crotone and Udinese, inferior to Chievo Five teams, one of which will make the company Verona and Benevento. In the course of the season, places in the departure zone were occupied alternately by SPAL and Croton, but in the spring both teams significantly increased. So, the Ferrarians for the last 11 matches impressive statistics + 4 = 6-1, and the Crotons won three of the six previous matches. This spurt led to the fact that a number of relaxed middle peasants were on the verge of a catastrophe.
The worst things are Cagliari. The islanders are already in the relegation zone, and in the remaining matches they play against strong teams with tournament motivation. It is not excluded that the struggle for survival will end with the most banal outcome - two defeats of Cagliari and no dependence on the results of other matches. The hope of Sardinians could be the return of Joao Pedro, one of the leaders of the midfield, who was suspended for two months because of a positive doping test. Also adds optimism statistics of personal meetings with competitors. If Cagliari grabs for points in the last two matches, the chances of survival will not be zero.
Udinese and Chievo, finding themselves in a steep peak (Udintsy even lost 11 games in a row), decided to replace the coach. This is especially important for the Veronese, because Rolando Maran coached the team from 2014.
Shock therapy with the appointment of Lorenzo D'Anne gave the result: Chievo in the last round won from Croton and left the relegation zone. Udinese under Igor Tudor is not impressive yet: 3: 3 with Benevento and 0: 4 from Inter. The current form of Udintsy is the worst in Serie A, but the calendar in their favor. While Cagliari is waiting for difficult opponents, Udinese can take points with the departed Verona and unmotivated Bologna.
Forecast: Cagliari departure Author: Sergey Shevchenko.