The Economist: Ten Trends To Watch For In The New Year

31 December 2020, 00:22 | The Company
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You feel happy? The number 21 is associated with luck, risk, daring actions and bets in the game.. This is the sum of points on a standard dice, the number of shillings in one guinea, as well as the number of large bets on horse racing, writes the British The Economist.

21 is the minimum age at which you are eligible to enter a casino in America, as well as the name of a whole family of card games, including Blackjack, a game popular with avid gamblers.

It seems that all of this is very suitable for such an unusually uncertain year.. A big prize is raffled off - a chance to control the coronavirus pandemic. However, there are still plenty of risks - for health, for the sustainability of the economy and for social stability.. Here are 10 trends to look out for in the coming year.

The battle for vaccines. When the first vaccines become available in sufficient quantities, the focus will shift and will no longer focus on heroic efforts to develop a drug. Now all the attention will be on the equally difficult task of its distribution. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany battles within and between countries over who should get vaccinated and when. And here is the joker in this game: what percentage of people will refuse vaccination when it is offered to them?

Uneven economic recovery. Economies will recover from the pandemic, but this recovery will take place in different ways - from time to time, local outbreaks will still be repeated. And they will be accompanied by inhibitions. Governments can be expected to give up trying to keep companies on a maintenance machine. Instead, governments will move to providing targeted assistance to people who have lost their jobs.. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen even further.

Attempts to restore world order. To what extent will Joe Biden, as the new master of the White House, restore a rules-based world order This order was based on Western rules and is now being destroyed. Paris Climate Agreement and Iran Nuclear Deal - Clear Opportunities for First Steps. However, this destruction began before Donald Trump, and it will outlast his presidency..

Rising tensions in US-China relations. Don't expect Mr Biden to end the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to improve relations with allies in order to conduct it more effectively.. Many countries in Africa and Southeast Asia are doing everything to stay away from this conflict. But rising tensions don't bode well.

Companies are on the front lines. In addition to diplomacy and military confrontation, the struggle between companies is one front in the conflict between the United States and China.. And this is not just about such recognized giants as Huawei and TikTok, as the whole business is increasingly becoming a geopolitical battleground.. In addition to pressure from above, business owners also face pressure from below as employees and consumers demand that they take a stand on climate change and social justice.. And these are exactly the areas that politicians simply left to fend for themselves..

Acceleration of all aspects of life as a result of the use of high technologies. In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the adoption of many high-tech behaviors, from video conferencing and online shopping to telecommuting and distance learning.. It will become clearer in 2021 whether these changes will persist or decline.

Less free world. Tourism will shrink and reshape, with greater emphasis on domestic tourism - travel by citizens within their own countries. Airlines, hotel chains and aircraft manufacturers will face major challenges, and the same is true for universities that rely heavily on international students.. Cultural exchanges will suffer too.

Climate Change Opportunities. Climate change can be seen as a ray of hope in times of crisis as governments invest in green economic recovery plans that create jobs and reduce emissions. Another question: how ambitious will be the promises of governments at the UN climate conference, which was postponed in 2020 and postponed to 2021?

The year of deja vu, the year of something already seen. This is another example of how the coming year, in many ways, can be seen as the second attempt of 2020, as the Olympic Games in Tokyo, Expo in Dubai, and many other political and commercial meetings have been postponed.. Every effort will be made to reopen one year after the originally scheduled date. But not everyone will be able to do it.

ten. A wake-up call for other risks. Scientists and analysts, many of whom have long warned of the danger of a pandemic, will try to seize the narrow window of opportunity and force policymakers to take other neglected risks more seriously, including antibiotic resistance and nuclear terrorism.. We wish them good luck.



The coming year promises to be particularly unpredictable, given the simultaneous impact of factors such as the coronavirus pandemic, uneven economic recovery across all countries, and restive geopolitics. We hope that the coming year will improve your chances so that you can avoid risks and take advantage of the opportunities that arise..

Let's cast lots - and whatever card you get in 2021, let everything turn out so that luck is always on your side..




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