Putin continues to play up the stakes, seeking to split the West in the chaos he creates, reduce its support for Ukraine and achieve “total victory” in the war. Traditionally, stakes have been placed on nuclear blackmail: in an interview with the Rossiya 24 TV channel, Putin said that tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) would be deployed in Belarus, about which, allegedly, Lukashenko “raised a question” for a long time. According to the President of the Russian Federation, the reason for such a step was the UK's statement about the supply of ammunition with depleted uranium to Ukraine..
Putin also said that Russia has already handed over to Belarus the Iskander missile system, which can be a carrier of tactical nuclear weapons, and is starting to train the crew from April 3.. In addition, on July 1, the Russians will complete the construction of a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in the neighboring country of the " Further, the Russian president clarified that the Russian Federation does not transfer its nuclear weapons to Belarus, but “does what the United States has been doing for decades”.
Putin announced plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in a neighboring country four days after the end of the visit to Moscow of Chinese President Xi Jinping. But the joint Chinese-Russian statement says that “all nuclear powers should not deploy nuclear weapons outside their national territories and should withdraw all nuclear weapons stationed abroad”. So what happened: Putin fulfilled a secret agreement with Xi or fraternally threw a “dear friend”?
It is noteworthy that immediately after Xi’s visit, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also returned to nuclear blackmail.. Has the threat of nuclear conflict passed? No, it hasn't passed. She has risen. Every day of deliveries of foreign weapons to Ukraine ultimately brings this same nuclear apocalypse closer, ”the ex-president of Russia broadcast, answering questions from Russian journalists and users of the social network Vkontakte..
Given the specifics of the talks between the two authoritarian leaders in Moscow, it is still impossible to say with certainty whether Comrade Xi's consent was given to the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. But in conversation with ZN. UA Associate Professor of the Institute of International Relations of the KNU. Shevchenko Viktor Konstantinov noted that in any case, Beijing will not react to Moscow's decision, but will silently accept it. Due to the fact that China benefits from any aggravation in the world, forcing the United States to react and thereby distracting the White House from concentrating efforts to counter China.
From the point of view of international law, formally Putin does not violate Russia's obligations under either the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) or the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Indeed, in accordance with the provisions of the NPT, each of its nuclear-weapon States Parties undertakes not to transfer to anyone these weapons or other nuclear explosive devices, as well as control over them, either directly or indirectly..
In fact, the United States did the same, deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey and Western Europe during the Cold War.. (Now there are about 100 tactical nuclear bombs. ) And despite repeated statements by representatives of the Russian Federation that the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons by the United States in Western Europe is a violation of the NPT, this position of Moscow did not prevent it during the Soviet era from placing nuclear components on the territory of its satellites in Europe.
Formally, Belarus does not violate its obligations either: Minsk does not accept tactical nuclear weapons from Moscow and does not receive control over them, providing the Russians only with its territory. And in February, the mention of a nuclear-free status was removed from Article 18 of the Belarusian constitution.. Back then, the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said: “We know what it means for Belarus to become a nuclear (country. - IN. This means that Russia will deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, and this is a very dangerous path.”.
And so it happened.
Russian Telegram channels write that “Lukashenko’s consent to deploy nuclear weapons was given in exchange for refusing to deploy Russian tactical groups and directly participate in the Ukrainian conflict”. It is not yet possible to verify this assertion.. And experts from the Institute for the Study of War do not rule out that the Russian president could have been planning the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus even before the invasion of Ukraine, and now he simply took advantage of the opportunity.
In any case, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus carries serious risks for the republic, since Russia is not only building a nuclear military base in this state, but also exposing the country to the threat of a nuclear strike. Moscow's decision also undermines the principles of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and destroys the architecture of nuclear disarmament. Therefore, NATO called the Kremlin's decision " In turn, Ukraine demanded to convene an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council.
But does the potential appearance of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus mean the Kremlin is ready to use it
US and NATO officials say they see no sign that Russia has moved nuclear weapons to Belarus or is preparing to use them. After all, it seems that Putin, too, has already realized the limited military results and global geopolitical consequences of the use of tactical nuclear weapons.. And the Russian president's explanation of the reason for the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus looks unconvincing. Putin's goals are primarily political.
They are indirectly connected with Belarus. Thus, the Polish Foreign Ministry called Russia's intention to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus a step towards further drawing Minsk into the military machine of the Russian Federation.. In addition, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko will have even less opportunity to influence what is happening in the country, since it is the Russians who will control tactical nuclear weapons and decide on its use..
However, the main goals are. First, use the West's fear of nuclear escalation to sow discord among Western democracies and reduce support for Ukraine.. (In fact, this threat in the Old and New Worlds is seen. Thus, the German Foreign Ministry called Russia's decision another " ) But the tactic brings Putin some success: after his interview, Bulgarian Vice President Iliyana Yotova urged to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia.
Secondly, to use the pacifists' fear that the United States, in response to Russia's actions, will begin to deploy similar types of nuclear weapons in the countries of Eastern and Central Europe or even in Ukraine.. Indirectly, the Kremlin will try to increase pressure on governments that support Ukraine.
Thirdly, by blackmailing the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, to invite the United States to negotiations. Earlier, Putin had already raised the stakes in the confrontation with the United States, when in his message to the Federal Assembly he announced the suspension of Russia's participation in the START, announced that the Ministry of Defense and Rosatom should prepare for nuclear tests if necessary, and announced the signing of a decree on setting. Now there's another move.
According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War, Putin constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons without any intention of going through with the matter.. The decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus fully fits into Putin's intention to demonstrate that Russia still has the potential to further destabilize the situation in Europe if its interests are ignored.. In other words, this is another attempt by the Kremlin to push the White House to sit down at the negotiating table and conclude new “Yalta agreements”.