The modern siege of cities, first used during the Second World War, is a terrible creation of human suffering.. On the one hand, the aggressor is trying to destroy the city and kill its inhabitants. On the other hand, people who are trapped simply endure, because their living rooms have turned into firing positions of the collision line..
This is a grim fate that awaits Ukrainian cities, writes Forbes. For Ukraine, the task of every city is to hold out for as long as possible, depleting Russian military resources, until President Vladimir Putin stops. It is not easy.
Russian invaders may recall their old experience of fighting in cities. In particular, how did Soviet cities hold out when German forces entrenched themselves in the vicinity during World War II and tried to weaken settlements with the help of artillery, aviation, “terror and hunger” so that they could be easily occupied later. Putin forgot that urban defense still means a lot in the post-Soviet space. Every Ukrainian, like every Russian, knows many stories about the siege. Ukrainian cities know what awaits them, and there is something to counter this. During World War II, St. Petersburg, Sevastopol, Odessa, Volgograd and many other cities stably resisted the enemy attack, holding positions for months or even years, thus tying up and exhausting enemy ground forces.
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In those days, urban resistance was very expensive.. When Leningrad, now called St. Petersburg, was surrounded, 10 times more people died in 872 days of the siege than during the nuclear attack on Hiroshima. It was worth it in the end. Large city clouds sucked the life out of Germany, stopped the German advance to the east and helped the USSR survive the darkest days of the war..
The longer each isolated Ukrainian city holds out, the more Russian forces will be trapped in a siege.. With the tightening of sanctions, every shell, bomb and tank spent to cordon off the city is a loss that is hard to replace and impossible to turn into the occupation of additional territory or advance further to the west of Ukraine.. A modern siege requires a huge amount of troops. And the human forces of Russia are now very lacking. Putin should know.
From the end of 1999 to the beginning of 2000, about 25 thousand Russian soldiers took more than a month to occupy Grozny, a small city with a population of about 200 thousand inhabitants, which was defended by 3-6 thousand non-military people. When it comes to more numerous and professional defense, Putin will need much more troops and time to capture the major cities of Ukraine. If the struggle continues for a long time, it will be difficult for Russia to make significant progress.. World War II casualty numbers may tell how events may unfold further if major Ukrainian cities fight back. In 1941, Odessa under siege fought for two months against almost 300 thousand enemy soldiers.. She destroyed more than 90,000 before finally losing the ability to continue to defend herself.. The Russian army and political leadership simply will not survive such losses.. But it will be a ruthless exhaustion of endurance and will on both sides.
The publication writes that this is already happening. Mariupol, a city of over 400,000 inhabitants, has already been under siege for two weeks. Trapped without proper preparation, the city suffers from a lack of food, water and fuel.. But he still holds on. If the city leadership can continue to mobilize the population, directing it to strengthen the city and focusing efforts on municipal services on the rationed distribution of products among residents, the city can hold out for a long time.. But it will be a cruel, painful and dirty task..
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From the battle in the cities no one comes out unscathed. In cities under siege, morality becomes a luxury and the first casualty of war. Every day, city leaders will have to deal with the painful challenge of urging their residents to hold on and endure death and suffering.. Intrigues, traps and deceit are the inevitable agenda.
To prevent the destruction of the city, the leadership in the siege cannot afford to be merciful to those who will break under the pressure of this seemingly hopeless battle.. In the siege of the city, do whatever is necessary to survive.
For the cities of Ukraine, the first days of need will be the worst. In the modern siege, the weak, the vulnerable, and the drug addicts die first.. And the rest become lifeless. As hunger intensifies, the unity and common purpose that held people together in the early days of the war will be under attack as buoyant communities turn into hungry people, desperate for food or a drink of water.. The Ukrainian military command is already facing painful questions, prioritizing the distribution of ammunition over food, trying to avoid weakening military resources in defensive positions in order to maintain fragile evacuation corridors.. A very tight blockade could force cities into submission. But due to weak mobilization, Russia is not able to completely isolate most major cities.. The supply will still seep through weak Russian positions, through Russian beggars and willing to take a bribe of the military.
Get Ready or Die.
The morale and organization of the city will be critical factors. This is one of the reasons why Russian forces are now attacking mayors and other city leaders.. While communities are mobilizing on a massive scale to defend major cities, and civilians are working to support needs for fuel and other things, active civic leaders are trying to get as much done as possible.. But energetic leaders — from President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and down the hierarchy — must occasionally take a break from their hard work and consider potential successors.. Every leader must have a sustainable succession plan. Alternate candidates must be given the opportunity to gain the trust of the public, as well as the experience needed to continue the work of a deceased or missing predecessor..
In cities, food and water will be critical. Russian forces now track and strike large food warehouses and procurement centers. Ukrainians must collect rations and store them in special warehouses in all regions. If the city is cordoned off, decentralized distribution of products throughout the territory will keep the supply as long as possible. Citizens should also help collect, purify and store water. If the water supply system is destroyed, doctors will have to fight diseases caused by pathogens in the water.. As the villagers, in desperation, start drinking from whatever sources they find..
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Like food and water, ammunition is also vital for a city under siege.. Now everyone entering a Ukrainian city must carry as much ammunition as possible. Transport routes for guns, anti-tank weapons and other equipment should be organized and tested. The evacuation of the too young, weak and addicted to medicines must happen urgently. In big cities, residents who simply cannot survive a siege should evacuate immediately so as not to get stuck between the battle lines..
To uphold morale, Ukraine's central government must constantly explain why the sacrifice of seemingly helpless city dwellers in a siege matters a lot.. Getting the message across is hard, but Russia makes it easy. Poor Russian soldiers devastate cities, rob, kidnap and kill Ukrainians. The disclosure of Putin's terror only reinforces the assertion that for Ukraine, time won is freedom and survival.. Each additional day of holding Ukrainian cities under siege exhausts the Russian army and gives other Ukrainian cities time to prepare..
The clock is ticking.
Diplomats tend to be delicately looking for ways out for Putin to abandon his disastrous invasion.. But for a city under siege, there are no " You can either give up, or die, or survive. The clock is ticking. The longer the cities of Ukraine suffer and fight against the Russian aggressor, the greater will be the pressure both in Russia itself and in civilized countries due to the demands to “do something”.
Putin, in his rush to break the Ukrainians before his elites riot, may decide he needs a spectacularly conquered city, applying massive repression and destroying a very particularly recalcitrant locality..
He can desperately attack a NATO country or use chemical or nuclear weapons to kill Ukrainian authorities and break urban resistance.. But other clocks are ticking too. Civilized nations not accustomed to the brutality of urban warfare will be under increasing pressure to intervene and oppose current efforts to impose nihilistic " And the more resistance in Ukrainian cities reveals that the Russian army is a paper tiger, patience for Putin’s constant threats and provocations will grow dangerously small..