Macron leads in the ratings, but it's too early to celebrate the victory - expert

29 April 2017, 11:36 | Peace
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Sociology predicts Emmanuel Macron's victory in the second round with a result of about 60% for him and about 40% for Marin Le Pen. However, a substantial "reserve" of almost 20% can be corrected in case of low voter turnout. About this in his article for ZN. UA is written by the expert on foreign policy and security policy of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future and the Council of Foreign Policy "Ukrainian Prism" Nadezhda Koval.

The author notes that low turnout may be a chance for Le Pen, if the second round is ignored by supporters who consider Macron's victory a fait accompli. To bring the ultra-right candidate to victory, the fact that voters of candidates who lost in the first round will not want to observe the republican consensus and vote for Macron just to prevent the presidency of Le Pen.



"Signs of both problems could be seen in Macron's overconfident speech on the results of the first round, and Melanshon's refusal to call for voting for either of the two candidates in the first round, and the fact that the Republicans have a significant faction headed by Lloran Vokez, who Also prefers uncertainty, "Koval writes..

The expert adds about the important factor of the "normalization" of the National Front, which has long become a familiar element of the French political landscape and does not cause such existential horror as in 2002, when in the second round Jacques Chirac received 82% of support precisely thanks to protest votes against Le Pen -father.




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