For two months, Ukraine has been signaling its intentions to regain control of Kherson in a major counter-offensive that would be a turning point in Kyiv's favor in the war against Russia.. But what will be the impetus? It's still a mystery.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are being strengthened and consolidated, Politico writes.. Ukrainian officials have long been saying that the fate of the war will be sealed in the south. Recently, there have been several mysterious attacks on Russian military installations located far from the front line.. In particular, two explosions thundered at an air base in Crimea on Tuesday. And this hints that the counteroffensive has begun.

Now in the hands of Ukraine weapons from all over North America and Europe worth billions of dollars. But is it enough? And how many weapons would be sufficient? Some of these weapons, including US HIMARS, have allowed Ukraine to strike Russian positions around occupied Kherson.. But the Russian army responds in a similar way. So the hard stalemate in the south persists. And the infantry on both sides are hiding in their trenches instead of moving forward..

Kherson, located on the right bank of the Dnieper, is the gateway for the Russian advance west to the critical port in Odessa. Russian troops occupied a significant part of the Kherson region at the beginning of the war, but were unable to advance further west due to Ukrainian resistance. The fact that Ukraine retained control over Odessa and several Black Sea ports allowed some ships to take Ukrainian grain out.. This gave Kyiv badly needed economic support..

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But Ukraine's talk of a long-awaited counter-offensive, its slow pace and some puzzling decisions, surprises even the most careful analysts following the Russo-Ukrainian war.. They wonder where the promised Ukrainian momentum went. Maybe it's a hoax that Kyiv used to confuse Russian forces.? Or is it an indicator that Ukraine does not yet have enough firepower to deprive Moscow of control over a key region and a grueling battle, which will be accompanied by a constant exchange of territories, is inevitable?

“Why all this public talk about Kherson? I'll be honest, I don't know. But it drives me crazy. Frankly, from a military point of view, it doesn't make any sense.. Because if you are a Ukrainian military commander, you would choose to fight with 7 Russian battalion tactical groups that were stationed in the north of Kherson a month ago, and not with 15-20 standing there now,” said Konrad, a military analyst and director of Rochan Consulting..

At the same time, he noted that Russian losses weakened the strength of these battalions.. And the disastrous Russian offensive against Kyiv in February and March showed that sending several thousand soldiers to the target without first weakening the enemy defenses is a losing idea.. And the Ukrainian side noticed it. Recent strikes on three bridges across the Dnieper have rendered them “unsuitable for repair” and have seriously undermined Russia’s ability to send reinforcements to Kherson, said Natalya Gumenyuk, spokeswoman for the Southern Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine..

“The impacts on these bridges make them unsuitable for heavy traffic,” she said..

The publication recalls that the Ukrainian forces smashed the Antonovsky bridge, the last and largest artery connecting the two banks of the Dnieper in Kherson. But after successful strikes, no significant offensive actions followed.. Ukrainian ground forces in the region almost did not move. And some reports explained that they were left in the trenches due to Russian shelling.. The Southern Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims that it has liberated dozens of towns and villages in the north of the Kherson region. But in these regions, Russian resistance was negligible.. Analysts say it will be much more difficult to recapture the rest of the region..

But both sides are struggling. While Ukraine can't push as hard as the moment demands, it has destroyed Russian logistics. And this also undermines the ambitions of the Kremlin.

“Even if Russia manages to somehow fix the bridges, they will remain the main vulnerability for the Kremlin,” British intelligence estimates for August 13 said..

Thousands of Russian soldiers depend on supplies through two pontoon crossings.

“Due to supply chain constraints, the size of the stockpiles that Russia has been able to amass on the right bank of the Dnieper will be a key factor that will determine the resilience of the troops,” said the British assessment..

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In the Russian war against Ukraine, pushing even a small number of forces from defensive positions was one of the most difficult aspects.. The army of Moscow has demonstrated its readiness to pour its blood on every meter of territory in the Donbass, which it managed to capture in six months. For Ukraine, this task will not be easier. It is still not clear whether the Ukrainian army will have enough troops and artillery shells to do this..

Britain began to train thousands of Ukrainian infantrymen in the south of England. And a number of countries, including Canada, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands and New Zealand, promised that they would soon also train the Ukrainian military. But this plan only involves three weeks of basic infantry training to learn the basics of tactics and movement.. And it will give recruits a certain smattering of knowledge about the brutality of the reality they will face, but no more.. On August 11, at a meeting in Copenhagen, 26 Western countries and the EU promised to allocate $1.5 billion for military assistance to Ukraine. This money is mainly intended to provide artillery and ammunition..

Meanwhile, Russia has been shifting troops from the south of Kharkiv Oblast and Donetsk Oblast to the south over the past weeks to strengthen its defensive positions around Kherson.. Thus, it increased the quantitative advantage in manpower and technology that existed before.. Politico recalls that almost the entire Kherson region was occupied in the first days of the invasion. It occupies a strategically important position next to the annexed Crimea. Since then, Russian troops have fortified their front lines and, over the past weeks, have built up defensive positions in anticipation of a Ukrainian attack.. But in Kherson, the invaders still did not feel comfortable due to the deep rejection of the locals and strong partisan resistance..

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Despite this, Russia plans to hold a so-called referendum in Kherson in mid-September to declare the region its territory.. So if Kyiv wants to prevent this illegal vote, it should hurry up.. Mykola Beleskov, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine, doubts that any Ukrainian offensive will happen quickly, given the lack of heavy weapons.. In his opinion, Kyiv will " Beleskov also admits that the Russian decision to deploy forces in Kherson could be a strategic mistake..

“I would say that Russia made the situation even worse. Because more troops will need more supplies that have become vulnerable to strikes, ”explained the Ukrainian expert.

Kyiv seems to understand this. Therefore, he destroyed the railway and road bridges across the Dnieper River so that Russian troops would not have freedom of movement in the region.. According to Beleskov, the fact that the Ukrainian side forced Moscow to change its focus and move soldiers is already an “achievement”.

Because for the first time in the entire history of the great war, Russia is adjusting its plans after the Ukrainian actions.. And before the initiative was in Russian hands. This may not be the big counteroffensive that Kyiv was talking about.. But Beleskov notes that the count of guns and troops at the front is not necessarily decisive..

“The best strategist is not the one who fights by the textbook, but the one who finds a way to get the job done even with limited funds,” said the Ukrainian expert.