The euro and the dollar will rise again

18 September 2018, 12:20 | Economy
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The rate of the single European currency fell below 80 rubles. But in the very near future the euro again can conquer this height. Despite the local success of the "Russian", the threat of new US sanctions has not gone away, and therefore the ruble is still under colossal external pressure. On the first day of the week on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the ruble slightly lost ground. Following the auction, the dollar went up by 1 kopeck, to 68.06 rubles, while the euro rose by 39 kopecks, to 79.49 rubles, according to the website of the site. Thus, world currencies began to win back the fall, which happened on Friday, September 14, after the decision of the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate. The regulator raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 7.5%, although most experts assumed that the key figure would remain unchanged. The Central Bank explained its decision with high risks for the stability of the national currency. These included the volatility of the ruble rate, the likely growth of inflation and the reduction in the number of non-residents in Russian government bonds. The markets reacted to this with an instant rise in the ruble.

Investors are waiting for the Central Bank to start a long cycle of rate hikes, although regulators do not confirm this. Another factor supporting the national currency was the decision of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and no longer buying dollars in the domestic market to replenish reserves. If you believe the statements of the Central Bank, then there will be no intervention by the end of the year. Nevertheless, the negative around is much more. In the medium term, investors will be in anticipation of new US sanctions against Russia. The first panic in the market about this has already settled. But still possible sanctions against buyers of Russian federal loan bonds and strategic companies will surely turn out to be very painful. Does not give the ruble self-confidence and the instability of oil quotes. On the one hand, the price of black gold should rise due to a reduction in supplies from Iran. On the other hand, a trade conflict between the US and China can lead to a sharp decline in demand, which could lead to a collapse in the cost of energy.

"We can expect that the actions of the Central Bank, of course, will make a good reserve for the ruble exchange rate, but at the same time, we can state that the regulator has somehow managed to panic in the market and now its actions can not give the market clear guidelines. Rather, now he acts, focusing on market conditions, "- said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, an analyst at the Forex Club Mikhail Rytik. According to the expert, in the near future the ruble will continue to fall - from this there is no escape. As a result, this week the US dollar can consolidate between 68 to 69 rubles, and the euro - reach the mark of 80 rubles.




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