The rebound of the domestic currency began, which followed the crushing collapse in the middle of last week, ended last Friday, and did not manage to realize its potential potential. After rising to the mark of 61.12 for the dollar and 75.4 for the euro at the beginning of trading on Friday, the ruble's fall resumed. The starting point was the announcement of the introduction of the bill "On measures to influence the unfriendly actions of the US and (or) other foreign states". As a result, until the end of the Friday day, the dollar's rate rose by almost a ruble, breaking the mark of 62 rubles. The euro has risen in price for 1,17 rubles. Perhaps the "forced weight loss" of the ruble would have taken a much larger scale, but oil saved up to $ 72.7 per barrel. As for the failed strengthening of the ruble, it became the market reaction to extremely questionable (in the opinion of most financiers) proposals on reciprocal economic measures against the US. Literally, all experts agreed that the proposed actions, recognized symmetrically to punish the United States for the collapse of "Rusal", at best are not thought out and meaningless, and at worst are "a shot at the foot" to himself. So, you do not need to be an expert to understand that the proposal to stop deliveries to the US of RD-180 rocket engines is not a blow to the US space program, but a "control shot to the head" of Energomash NPO,. However, let's return to the Russian currency market and the immediate prospects of the ruble. What happened to the Russian currency last week is very similar to the events of 1998. Opinions of experts on the near and medium-term future of the ruble diverge quite strongly. The only thing the analysts are in solidarity with, is that there will be no return to the former "comfortable" courses. So, according to the head of the analytical department of the Grand Capital Sergei Kozlovsky, in the near future, the collapse is not worth waiting for. "There are several reasons for this," he explained "Utro". - Firstly, this is a steady increase in oil, and OPEC's attempts to continue to control the supply of raw materials during the current year. Secondly, this is an event that occurred this week, namely, Trump's statement about the need for a dialogue with Russia instead of building up an arms race. According to the expert, in this message there are several important signals: the refusal of hasty and highly likely tragic military actions in Syria against the government troops in response to the latest Khimataku in the Duma, and a reference point for the continuation of the dialogue with Russia in the framework of military cooperation. "In the long term, the ruble will continue to lose ground due to high inflation, in parallel with this, receiving support from strong oil," said Sergei Kozlovsky. - Our target at the end of the second - the beginning of the third quarter is 61 rubles per US dollar and 74 rubles for the euro. The relationship between the Russian Federation and the United States is also drawn by the director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest, Kirill Tremasov. In his opinion, everything will depend on the events in Syria. "There is a feeling that now there is a bargaining with Russia," he said.. - I think the military operation will still be. And if it leads to a severe aggravation of the conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States, the ruble will again fall sharply.
The maximum scale of devaluation I estimate is 74 - 76. If Russia takes a neutral position or confines itself to a diplomatic condemnation of aggression, the ruble will stabilize. Return below 60 do not wait. The ultimate scale of devaluation is the scenario of the second wave of sanctions, this time to the financial sector ". With even greater pessimism, the analyst of FC Kalita-finance Dmitry Golubovsky looks at the future of the ruble.
He expects a certain rebound on the ruble, after which the Russian currency will inevitably break down. "Even the first impulse has not yet been formed," Golubovsky said..
- It will end, most likely, by re-testing the mark at 65 rubles per dollar. From there will be a good "dump", and then - a trend to weaken the ruble. Yes, you did not misinterpret, the trend towards ruble appreciation is over. I believe that the dollar index yesterday turned up for a long time ".