Peace in Ukraine is becoming catastrophically dependent on the results of the US-China negotiations. Unfortunately, few people in Ukraine think about this.
The following is the text in the original language. Putin, de facto, having realized from the negotiations, the division between the front line and the demarcation line (the likelihood of their implementation is still clear, although it is still difficult to understand, so Putin will wait.
Ale mi maemamo rasumiti: the USA has practically no important things. Putin does not believe that Trump will soon allow Tomahawks to hit naphtha transshipment ports. And the only important thing is Washington’s influx into Moscow. For us, this means one important point: since we do not have the ability to build this infrastructure on our own, we consider it to be helpful and not sub? This is why it is necessary to speak on equal terms. We currently have no opportunity to raise the stakes as much as we can in the battle of David and Goliath.
The war will enter, at a minimum, a new 5-6 month cycle, if negotiations may be unrealistic. On the right is the fact that major negotiations of this fate, and perhaps the next one, will start this week: US-China negotiations.
At the beginning of the negotiations, the Americans achieved the main thing: China was not able to create a special coalition of satellites that would act as a united (if you want a hybrid) front against the United States.
Alas, the USA could not do anything like that. We can imagine a situation where two hegemons enter into negotiations, and their satellites stand aside and wonder how the negotiations can end.
These negotiations will be about three basic issues: not to allow a direct military confrontation, to try to negotiate new rules for the light trade, which the United States has been systematically pursuing over the course of the remaining seven years.. The third part of the negotiations: who and how controlled Europe is, how the world’s largest marginal market.
Even though Taiwan is at war for something else, there is clearly a long way to go for military action (more precisely, its likelihood in the near future may be zero). Whenever the world rules and sometimes Europe rules, there is a great field here. Otherwise, the parties to the dispute will reach compromises. It is unlikely that it will become a windfall, but over the coming months it will, with a great degree of certainty, become.
What will the Russian Federation do at this hour (after the war in Ukraine)?
– they will try to solve the problem in the third point of the world (repeat the situation with Syria in 2015). True, for the rest of the years the stench could not produce anything like this;
– They will continue to bite Europe, wanting no ground invasion in the near future will not be a priori (Europe will have a controlling stake in the sanctions, and it is so important for the Russians that the Europeans get angry);
– They will try to wedge themselves into the US-China negotiations as a mediator, although they don’t need anything and the maximum that the Kremlin can achieve – will become part of the background agenda. There is already a lot of ale.
– The main trump card of the Russians is the Arctic route and licenses for the exploration of rare earth metals at this stage will not play your role. Putin, like a dog in the mound, will trim them like a trump card, otherwise he will simply be afraid to quickly get rid of him (and it is still unrealistic to create trilateral joint ventures between China, the USA and Russia.
Putin's disarray is becoming immutable: the front is fading, Ukraine is freezing, Europe is getting angry. And the result: Ukraine will fall, Europe will threaten to invade, Europe will become angry and Russia will once again become the third pole of the world. I’ll tell you straight away - it’s impossible, ala Putin, it’s like believing in such a scenario yourself.
This is all Putin’s myth-making, but it’s similar, this is his plan. Imitation of mediation between the USA and China is necessary for the implementation of this scenario. Headwaters (for Russia, especially) whose scenario: neither Washington nor Beijing needs Russia’s victory and, moreover, Russia’s exit to Odessa.
In this context, Ukraine simply needs to think about how we will take part in the US-China negotiations in order to become an essential part (while we may not be too mediated by European mediation). If, therefore, Europe has little strategy in the context of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, then this strategy is silent (it is not visible).
The ideal scenario for us is to become part of these negotiations at the final stage of the US-China negotiations and achieve a strong grip between China and the US on the Russian Federation. For now, no one seems to be able to provide food like this in Kiev. Because we won’t find anything in our minds this week, we will enter another cycle of war, which is no less troubling than fate with all the obvious legacies. Putin's attacks can only be done by the United States and China. Trump alone can't do anything. It's a pity.