In recent months, much attention has been focused on Russia's failed military offensive and its massive losses in Ukraine.. But there are other problems, mostly invisible outside of Russia, that are looming over the country's army and Russian society as a whole..

Russia's military personnel policy, introduced in September last year, temporarily prohibits conscripts and mobilized soldiers from leaving service.. After these restrictions are lifted, Russia will face a military retention crisis and an even bigger social crisis of veterans' mental disorders..

“Just as the terms 'Afghan Syndrome' and 'Chechen Syndrome' emerged to describe the plight of Russian veterans who lacked support and struggled to adjust to civilian life after these conflicts, the 'Ukrainian Syndrome' will sweep Russia as thousands of veterans suffering from post-traumatic.

Since President Vladimir Putin's decree on partial mobilization in September 2022, no Russian servicemen participating in the war against Ukraine have been allowed to leave the army, and they will not be allowed to do so until the " At present, the only way out other than death in combat is to reach the mandatory retirement age, be fired for health reasons, or be imprisoned.. Some soldiers take matters into their own hands and desert.

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Indefinite deployment, inadequate rest and rotation due to a shortage of soldiers means that Russian soldiers suffer from prolonged exposure to combat stress, which increases feelings of resentment and helplessness..

“When these restrictions are lifted, and they will be lifted sooner or later, the army may face a mass layoff of officers and other professional military personnel, including those whose contracts expired during the hostilities in Ukraine,” the RAND expert believes..

Sentiment among the Russian military in Ukraine is not easy to gauge, but anecdotal evidence such as social media posts, intercepted phone calls to relatives, officer pages and other sources indicate that many of them are likely to retire as soon as it becomes.

Moscow is certainly concerned about recruitment and retention. The government offers attractive salaries (a base rate of $2,500 per month, which is three times the average salary in Russia), comprehensive social benefits for soldiers and their families (from subsidies for housing and communal services to guaranteed places at universities), and. However, Massicot believes that despite these incentives, large-scale forced conscription is still likely to be needed.. Having mobilized 300,000 troops in the fall of 2022, Moscow announced a goal to recruit another 400,000 by December 2023. Many military experts consider such a goal unrealistic, given that it took six years to grow from 295,000 contract soldiers to 405,000 (between 2014 and 2020)..

Equally worrying is the social time bomb Russia faces as troops return to their cities and villages.. " It is estimated that 97% of the personnel of the Russian army and airborne troops are involved in this conflict, which is much more than in Afghanistan or Chechnya. The intensity of the fighting is high.

Russian troops have suffered more casualties in the last 16 months than they did in a decade of war in Afghanistan in the 1980s or two campaigns in Chechnya in the 1990s.. Casualty estimates vary from official Russian figures from late last year (just under 6,000 combat dead) and more than 23,000 confirmed military funerals, according to the BBC and Mediazona, to Western military estimates of 40,000-60,000 combat dead and 100,000. Higher estimates are startling numbers that will have huge implications for the future of Russian military power and for Russian society..

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The Russian medical system is already overstressed, although most Russian soldiers are still on duty.. Many hospitals are overflowing with the wounded.. Some of those who experience severe psychological trauma are discharged without treatment.

Russian psychologists estimate that more than 100,000 veterans need professional help to cope with war-induced mental health disorders.. Russia does not have enough psychiatric facilities for this amount: there are only ten hospitals for veterans in the country, and only one of them, with a capacity of 32 beds, specializes in psychiatric rehabilitation. Some soldiers are sent to military sanatoriums that lack the staff and equipment needed to treat them.. Some of them reportedly buy alcohol outside the sanatorium, retire to their rooms and drink alone..

Massicot notes that some signs indicate that Russia is recognizing this looming social crisis.. After a belated launch in the spring of a pilot program to treat PTSD for veterans of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin provided funds for a second program to create military support centers in each federal district.. These Defenders of the Fatherland Fund institutions are designed to provide returning veterans with physical rehabilitation, psychologists, prosthetics, home and palliative care, as well as employment and legal assistance.. But it's too early to say whether it will soften the blow to an already overstretched health care system..

Ukraine also faces huge challenges in dealing with the loss of life of the conflict: the Ukrainian Ministry of Health wants to provide mental health care to half of the population, but this is a huge task for which the necessary resources have not yet been found..

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“Spending money on prosthetic limbs and psychiatrists is one thing, creating the right environment for treating PTSD is another.. Russian law has recently been amended to criminalize speech that defames the army.. This may prevent returning soldiers from openly discussing their war injuries, which will hinder their recovery.. Russian authorities are using World War II iconography to portray veterans as heroes or liberators, but it is unclear whether these efforts will result in less social alienation than what soldiers who fought in Afghanistan and Chechnya felt upon return..

Symptoms of untreated combat trauma include an increased risk of criminal behavior, substance abuse, domestic violence, and problems at work.

“These problems will be felt throughout Russia when the soldiers return home.. The internal prestige of the Armed Forces, badly damaged as a result of previous conflicts, will again be under threat,” predicts Massicot.

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Troop retention and veteran treatment problems in Russia are already on the horizon, although their resolution has been delayed due to politics.

“By invading Ukraine, Russia has created a wave of severe trauma that will soon hit its own country,” the article says..