Last month, the first Turkish aircraft carrier of domestic production, Anadolu, was sent to the Bosphorus. By displaying a warship, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to ignite patriotic voters ahead of the May 14 vote. But his charisma, grand gestures and gifts may not be enough.

The man who has ruled Turkey since 2003 in an increasingly authoritarian style could be defeated..

Most polls say Erdogan is narrowly behind in the presidential race. The publication suggests that if he lost, it would be a stunning political reversal with global consequences.. The Turkish people would become freer, less fearful and eventually more successful. The new government would renew the crippled relations with the West. Turkey is a member of NATO, but during Erdogan's rule it became a destructive player in the Middle East and sought closer ties with Russia.

“Most importantly, in an age where authoritarian rule is rising everywhere from Hungary to India, the peaceful removal of Erdogan would demonstrate to democrats around the world that such leaders can be defeated,” the article says..

For starters, look at Turkey itself, a middle-income country of 85 million at the crossroads between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.. Like autocrats around the world, Erdogan has clung to power by systematically weakening the institutions that curb and correct bad policies.. His opponents - a six-party alliance with a detailed plan for governing the state - promise to restore these institutions..

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Of the many bad consequences of barely limited power, Erdogan's economic policies have hit ordinary Turks the hardest.. In two years, he fired three heads of a supposedly independent central bank, made his incompetent son-in-law finance minister, and has since committed the bank to an absurdly sugar-rush-like loose monetary policy.. This kept growth fairly high, but led to inflation that peaked at 86% last year and still exceeds 40% (according to official data, which may not be reliable). Voters complain that the price of onions has increased tenfold in two years.

If he wins the presidential election, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has vowed to restore the bank's independence and bring inflation down to single digits, which, with luck, will also stem the collapse of foreign investment.. But it's not just the economy that needs fixing..

Turkish democracy is also barely alive. Like many other autocrats, Erdogan " He silenced the media partly through intimidation and partly through organized sales of publications to his friends.. This is also a common practice. Erdogan pushed parliament into the background by amending the constitution in 2017 to give him the power to issue decrees at his own discretion.. Kilicharoglu vows to change this practice.

Erdogan prosecutors intimidate activists and politicians with trumped-up accusations of " Among Turkey's political prisoners is the leader of the main Kurdish party, the third largest in the country facing ban. Opposition mayor of Istanbul faces jail and ban from politics. Former government heavyweights are afraid to criticize the president, demanding anonymity before discussing him in whispers. All this will get worse if Erdogan is re-elected, but will quickly improve if he loses.

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The victory of the opposition would also be useful to Turkey's neighbors and would be of great geopolitical importance for the West.. Today, Turkey is almost completely cut off from the rest of Europe, although nominally it is still an EU candidate.. This may never happen, but Kilidaroglu promises to implement the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights and start releasing Erdogan's political prisoners. Europe should respond with the restoration of the long-stopped visa program for Turks, improved Turkish access to the EU single market and closer foreign policy cooperation..

The Economist also predicts an improvement in Turkish relations with NATO if the incumbent is defeated in the elections.. Turkish blocking of Sweden's entry into the alliance will be lifted. Relations with the US, poisoned by Erdogan's rapprochement with Vladimir Putin and attacks on Kurdish forces in Syria, will improve.

“However, the new Turkey will continue Erdogan’s policy towards Ukraine, which is to walk a thin line. It will continue to supply Ukraine with drones, but will not join the sanctions against Russia because it is too dependent on Russia for tourists and gas,” the article says..

More important will be the signal that an opposition victory will send to Democrats around the world.. Authoritarian leaders are now undermining democracy, not by abolishing it, but by destroying the rules and institutions that limit their power.. 56 countries qualify as " Although at the end of the Cold War there were 40. This list may grow. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is trying to undermine the country's judicial and electoral system.

A beacon for the oppressed.

If Erdogan loses, it will show that the erosion of democracy can be stopped - and tell you exactly how. Democratic opposition parties must recognize the danger and unite before it's too late. In India, fragmentation of the opposition has allowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi to dominate even though his party won 37% of the vote.. Now the main leader of the opposition faces jail. The situation in Poland is less grim, but its opposition is also losing elections against the populist ruling party..

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Turkey's opposition party, the Alliance of the Nation, has already made much more progress..

Kilidoroglu may seem a little boring, but he's a die-hard consensus maker. In addition, the politician behaves rather modestly.. He is the complete opposite of his opponent..

“If he won, it would be a huge moment for Turkey, Europe and the global struggle for true democracy.”. Erdogan did some good things in the early years of his rule, but the constant accumulation of excessive power overshadowed his mind and his sense of morality, as is usually the case,” writes The Economist, not hiding his sympathy for Kilidaroglu.