The 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement this month should be a reminder that even the most intractable conflicts can eventually be resolved through negotiations.. Northern Ireland was considered unsolvable. No one could foresee a zone of possible agreement that satisfies the Irish Republican Army (IRA), Unionist Protestants and the British government. But she found.

“Ukraine and Northern Ireland are, of course, different. But we know that the war in Ukraine, too, will eventually be resolved through negotiations, no matter how impossible it may seem now.. We know this because the only way to set conditions unilaterally is through total victory, like at the end of World War II.. However, no one is suggesting that Ukraine occupy Moscow, and Russia will remain Ukraine's big neighbor with a larger army, no matter what happens,” writes Jonathan Powell, who was Downing Street Chief of Staff under British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in an article for The Economist..

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He emphasizes that despite the peace initiative of China and other countries such as France, now is not the time for negotiations.. Peace talks usually only succeed when there is what researchers call a " As Ukraine prepares for a spring counter-offensive, no one should wait for a pause until everything is decided.. Powell points to recent opinion polls showing more than 90% of Ukrainians expect victory. Therefore, there is no political space for negotiations.

However, according to a former British official, now is the time to prepare for negotiations.. Leaders always have a strategy before a political or military campaign. But when it comes to dialogue they just come and hope for the best.

“We know the cost of this from the example of the Minsk agreements of 2014, which stopped the first Russian invasion of Ukraine that year.. They turned out to be impossible,” recalls Powell..

In terms of the structure of possible negotiations, it is hard to believe that Vladimir Putin would risk losing control by giving one state the power of mediation.. However, according to the British ex-official, there is the possibility of creating groups of friends from both sides, "

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“Chinese leader Xi Jinping could lead one group filled with other BRICS members. After all, he has more influence on Russia than anyone else. And America could lead a group of Western countries along with France and Germany, as well as strong supporters of Ukraine, such as Poland and the UK,” the author suggests..

He explains that these states would not negotiate instead of the parties, but each of them would support one side and offer compromises.. And countries like India and France would mutually enrich ideas in the form of virtual mediation.

As long as there is no conceivable zone of agreement between the parties. But, as Powell explains, this is often the case at the start of a negotiation..

“At the beginning of the negotiations in Northern Ireland, no one thought that the IRA would lay down their arms, but in the end they did.. Zones of possible agreement develop in the process of negotiations. But to do this, we need creative ideas that go beyond playing for zero-sum territory, and this must include a new European security architecture and security guarantees for Ukraine,” the article says..

A ceasefire could be a potential trap for Ukraine, allowing the Russians to regroup and attack again.. A truce or a frozen conflict will lead to Russia occupying Ukrainian territory and will be able to use leverage over Ukraine and impede its development as a European state.

“From the Ukrainian point of view, it would be better to continue to “fight and talk” at the same time, as President Juan Manuel Santos successfully did in Colombia in negotiations with FARC militants. Ukrainians understandably say they can't trust Putin, given everything he's done.. But we have already seen how this problem has been overcome before.. Governments have to negotiate with terrorists who have committed heinous crimes against their own people.. Trust only comes with the establishment of monitoring mechanisms and assurances that the other side is actually doing what it promised to do.. Such guarantees could be provided by China and America,” said a former British official..

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Putin demonstrates faith that time is on his side. He hopes that the upcoming US elections will help him, and that the unity of the West will be shattered.. On the other hand, he may be signaling that he is ready for a long war, hoping in this way to convince the West to agree to a settlement of his terms..

“If we are to succeed in the negotiations, we must be prepared for a long war, just as he. Domestic politics may be the biggest problem. Even if we agree on an agreement, how will the parties present it to their people ”, writes Powell, recalling that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has promised to hold a referendum on any agreement.

Polls show that 64% of Ukrainians want the liberation of all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, even if it means a longer war and even if it means less help from the West. It takes courage to try to convince the people to compromise after all their sacrifices.. It will be easier for Putin to sell the agreement to the Russian people, but he will be wary of hypernationalist ambitions.

Finding space for an acceptable agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be very difficult. But it's not impossible, says a former British official..