The war in Ukraine is as much psychological and political as it is military, as Volodymyr Zelenskiy well demonstrated when he assumed that “predators” in Russia’s ruling circles would one day kill Vladimir Putin. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian president would not shed a single tear if the Russian leader suffered the fate of Julius Caesar, convicted as a dictator and stabbed to death on the Ides of March by members of the Roman Senate.

However, Zelensky did not provide any evidence to support his prediction.. And his main goal seems to have been to bolster Ukraine's military efforts by planting even more seeds of suspicion in the paranoid soil of Kremlin politics.. But the question of who could replace Putin and what policies the new regime would pursue is one that Western governments and Russia experts are pondering..

Putin confirmed that presidential elections in Russia will be held next year. And if he participates in them, then victory is guaranteed to him.. Another six-year term will extend his reign to 30 years, which will be longer than the reign of Joseph Stalin in 1924-1953.. However, Putin turned 70 in October. The longer he stays in office, the more acute the question of succession becomes..

“To understand what Russia looks like after Putin, it is worth remembering Serbia after the brutal rule of Slobodan Milosevic. He lost power in 2000 after fomenting wars in the former Yugoslavia. So did Putin, starting wars against former Soviet republics such as Georgia and Ukraine..

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The publication notes that Milosevic and Putin are united by similar grievances. They both regretted the collapse of a multinational state dominated by one nationality: Serbs in Yugoslavia and Russians in the USSR. They equally complained about the status of ethnic Serb and Russian minorities in the newly independent states.. Milosevic and Putin are also united by a desire to control a territory that embodies national identity and historical pride: Kosovo for the Serbian autocrat and Crimea for the Russian.

Milosevic died in 2006 during a war crimes trial.. Last month, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing him of forcibly removing children from Ukraine..

“Serbia after Milosevic ceased to be a militant, hyper-nationalist state. But it has turned into a flawed democracy and has remained at odds with the West, especially over Kosovo and a foreign policy that includes Belgrade's warm relations with Russia and China.. Public life under the leadership of Aleksandar Vucic, who has served as prime minister since 2014 and has now become president, is characterized by the concentration of power and media influence in the hands of his Serbian Progressive Party, ”the publication compares, suggesting that similar conditions may arise.

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Any future Kremlin leader is unlikely to give up Moscow's claim to Crimea, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.. Being a much larger state than Serbia, Russia will not coordinate its foreign policy with the West. Domestically, the ruling group will ensure that elections always concentrate power in their hands, even if voting becomes less orchestrated than under Putin and more like a controlled competition, as it was under Boris Yeltsin..

As in Serbia, a turn to Western-style liberal democracy is unlikely in Russia in the near future. The only Serbian Prime Minister after Milosevic who embraced these values \u200b\u200bwas Zoran Djindjic.. He was killed in 2003. Boris Nemtsov was a rare prominent politician who generally championed liberal values \u200b\u200bin Putin's Russia.. He was shot dead outside the Kremlin in 2015.

In fact, one of the features of Serbian politics after Milosevic was the existence of an ultranationalist opposition. It keeps the ruling elite on their toes, making official recognition of Kosovo's independence almost unthinkable, even if Vucic felt ready to go down that path.. Vucic began his political career under the wing of Vojislav Seselj, a radical nationalist and supporter of the idea of \u200b\u200ba "

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There is also an ultra-nationalist current in Russian politics that Putin used to consider too rebellious..

But now it has become even louder because of the Russian war against Ukraine..

Since some influential representatives in the Russian military and intelligence services are loyal to such a worldview, radicals will undoubtedly play a role in setting the tone of future Russian politics..

“One can only guess who will replace Putin. However, judging by the experience of Serbia, even the end of Putin's authoritarianism and the war in Ukraine will not bring Russia either real democracy or better relations with the West..