The Guardian: Putin's timetable for deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus is questionable

27 March 2023, 16:28 | Peace
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Like much of what Vladimir Putin says about nuclear weapons, his words that Russia will start storing its bombs in Belarus may not be what they seem..

In February last year, Putin said he was putting Russia's nuclear arsenal on high alert.. But there have been no notable changes in the country's nuclear policy or any unusual shifts in its weapons, writes The Guardian..

Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko have been hinting at certain agreements on nuclear basing for some time now.. More than a year ago, a Belarusian autocrat organized a referendum to change the constitution to make it possible.. Now Putin is threatening to take a few more steps in this direction: in early April, start teaching Belarusian crews to fly aircraft with nuclear bombs, and by July 1, complete the construction of storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons..

Nuclear weapons experts are skeptical of such an ambitious timeline and point out that Russia has been working on a nuclear weapons storage facility in Kaliningrad for at least seven years, and it is still not clear whether the bombs actually arrived there.. There are no satellite images that could indicate that something similar is being built in Belarus.

“I looked at some possible bases and I don’t see anything that would indicate the construction of a nuclear storage facility.. But this cannot be ruled out.. You can bet there are a lot of people scouring the country right now,” said Hans Christensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Information Project..

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Earlier this week, Putin hinted at preparing his nuclear announcement, saying that Russia would respond to the UK's decision to supply armor-piercing shells containing depleted uranium to Ukraine.. Such shells are quite toxic, require special handling and pose an environmental threat, but they are by no means a nuclear weapon.. In his speech on Saturday, Putin did not focus on this issue..

Instead, he focused on Moscow's long-standing dissatisfaction with US nuclear-sharing deals with five allies.. There are such agreements with Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Turkey.. Under this agreement, the United States retains B61 gravity bombs (about 100 in total) in these countries, and its crews learn to fly aircraft carrying these bombs in case of nuclear war..

Russia claims it violates the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Just last week, Putin made a joint statement with Xi Jinping: "

Putin's statement on Belarus shows that since Tuesday he has changed his mind on this principle.. However, he can count on the global reaction to be muted due to years of general dissatisfaction with the agreements between the US and NATO on the sharing of nuclear weapons..

These agreements do not technically violate the NPT, as they existed before the signing of the treaty. The Soviet Union accepted them. Moreover, at that time Moscow could have placed its nuclear weapons in Belarus or any other Soviet republic.. But when Belarus, Ukraine and other republics became independent, she lost this right.

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The US deal with its allies and Russia's proposed deal with Belarus circumvent the NPT's restrictions by not formally handing over weapons to the government of the host country until a war breaks out.. However, for non-nuclear states and arms control advocates, this is a cynical workaround, contrary to the spirit of the NPT..

The Obama administration viewed the withdrawal of the B61 from Europe as a step towards disarmament. But some European allies have resisted any move that could signal that the nuclear umbrella is getting thinner.. And then relations with Moscow worsened again. Instead of taking them out, the bombs were modernized. New B61-12 version is now in transit to Europe.

“The new bombs are a whole new wave of weapons and this is of great concern to the European population.

Putin stating this and threatening to do the same is drawing attention to a problem that has been around for quite some time and that the rest of the world is also trying to address in order to solve,” said Susie Snyder, program coordinator for the International Campaign to Eliminate Nuclear Weapons..

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Christensen claims Putin is largely to blame for the B61's continued presence in Europe, as he occupied Crimea and part of the Donbass in 2014.

“I have no doubt that if Putin had not started what he has been doing since 2014, it is very likely that nuclear weapons would have already been withdrawn,” the expert said..




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