Russian President Vladimir Putin said he plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Russian president chose this time for such statements, because he hopes to undermine the morale of Ukrainians in this way.. He also hopes that Western aid will decrease and the effectiveness of the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive will decrease..

“Many high-profile Russian milbloggers and officials have warned that Ukrainian forces are likely to soon attempt to launch a major counteroffensive.. Putin's actions indicate that he agrees and fears the potential success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive,"

They noted that Putin and Kremlin officials had previously used narratives to strengthen Russia's nuclear readiness, as well as a warning about false flags and vague statements about negative developments on the battlefield.. At the same time, they argued that Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons for protection in Ukraine in order to moderate further Western support and military assistance to the Ukrainian state..

“ISW previously reported Putin’s escalation of nuclear rhetoric in September and October 2022, followed by a de-escalation in early November 2022 ahead of Russia’s loss of the city of Kherson and the western (right) bank of the Kherson region, and assessed that the Kremlin could use further nuclear escalation rhetoric to force.

ISW analysts believe Putin's March 25 announcement is part of that effort.. ISW assesses that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or anywhere else.

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On March 25, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had concluded an agreement with neighboring Belarus on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on its territory in response to the supply of depleted uranium shells to Ukraine.. According to Putin, such a step would not violate the agreement on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.. The construction of the storage facility is scheduled to be completed on July 1. There, it seems, Russia wants to place its tactical nuclear weapons..

At the same time, despite the threats of the Russian president, the Pentagon found no evidence that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons..

This is not the first time Putin has resorted to nuclear blackmail..

In January, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg warned that Russian nuclear threats were unacceptable and contrary to international law..

In 2017, the UN approved the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which prohibits states from allowing foreign nuclear weapons into their territory.. This agreement has been ratified by 92 countries.. Among them there are no Russia and Belarus, as well as the USA, France and other NATO countries.