For years, Saxo Bank economists have entertained the world with their annual shocking predictions, and few have taken their black swans seriously.. But when the global economy and geopolitics entered the zone of turbulence, Saxo's predictions no longer cause smiles: some are already beginning to come true, others are painfully similar to the truth.. We talk about the most plausible trends predicted by the Danish investment bank for the current year. Yes, these are still forecasts, only serious ones.

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In 2023, the EU begins the formation of its own joint armed forces.

After the end of World War II, Western Europe found itself under the consolation " Since the end of the Cold War, national defense priorities have faded further..

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to the biggest hot war in Europe since 1945.. Faith in the American “umbrella” has also been shaken – the 2022 US midterm elections were marked by an increase in the representation of right-wing populist Republicans in Congress, who are not inclined to ensure the security of Europe at the expense of American taxpayers.

In 2023, it becomes clearer than ever that Europe needs to put its own defensive posture in order.. It cannot be ruled out that the United States may abandon its obligations to Europe after the Ukrainian-Russian truce and the next presidential election..

In 2023, all EU members are taking a dramatic step towards the creation of land, sea, air and space-based armed forces by 2028.

They will be financed by 10 trillion euros spread over 20 years. By 2025, it is planned to bring the EU Rapid Deployment Force into readiness, which will be attended by more than 20 EU member states. EU bonds are issued to finance the new EU armed forces, which will be financed based on the key GDP of each member country. This deepens the EU sovereign debt market sharply, spurring a strong euro recovery thanks to a huge investment rally.

In reality, such signals have not yet been heard, and NATO is becoming more united against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the general trend towards increasing defense capability in the EU is already noticeable.

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Third Stone is cooler than the Manhattan Project.

Billionaires Coalition Raises $1 Trillion To Solve Energy Problem Once And For All And Companies That Hit The Coalition Orbit Will Be Very Lucky.

Demand for electricity will rapidly increase due to the increasing digitalization of human activity and the exponential growth of data storage and transmission. In the coming decades, data centers will consume about 20% of the world's energy. However, the potential for energy growth is very limited. It's either unacceptably dirty, climate-changing fossil fuels or frustratingly unreliable sources like wind and sun..

In 2023, the owners of large technology companies and other technophile billionaires create a consortium code-named Third Stone (“Third Stone”), by analogy with the investment company BlackRock (“Black Rock”). New consortium aims to invest in energy solutions. This is the largest research project since the Manhattan Project, which created the first atomic bomb..

In addition to pure R\u0026D, the fund will focus on how to combine new generation sources with baseload power transmission and storage infrastructure, the Achilles heel of alternative energy..

Companies partnering with the Third Stone consortium should be expected to rise sharply in value. Keep in mind that this is just a forecast..

UnBrexit - a new referendum in the UK.

Liz Truss's record short tenure as UK Prime Minister in 2022 made the UK's dilemma clear: tax cuts and demand-stimulating energy subsidies are a toxic cocktail for a country's bond and currency markets, especially if that country runs a huge budget/trade deficit.

The Truss-Kwarteng duo has been replaced by Rishi Sunak-Jeremy Hunt in 2022, delivering frustratingly tight fiscal austerity through tax hikes and spending cuts alone..

In 2023, Sunak-Hunt manages to drive the Tories' popularity ratings down to an all-time low, and their brutal fiscal program plunges the UK into a crushing recession, with unemployment rising and, ironically, deficits widening as tax revenue dries up..

Public demonstrations begin demanding that Sunak call a snap election. Sunak finally gives in and announces an election, stepping down to allow Tori's new profile to lead a battered party.

Labor leader Keir Starmer is running and backing a second referendum on EU reunification.

In the third quarter of 2023, the Labor government comes to power, which promises to hold a referendum on UnBrexit on November 1, 2023. ReJoin party wins. And the EU is again waiting for a difficult transition period, now reunification.

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Inflation will persist for the foreseeable future, while gold will rise in price.

In 2023, gold will finally find a sustainable vector. It turned out that the key factor holding back gold's potential was the market's misguided bet that inflation would be transient.. However, 2023 is the year the market finally realizes that inflation will remain high for the foreseeable future..

This means that rapid growth awaits the asset that does not depreciate..

Well, with such a forecast, it's hard not to guess. At least in trends, because gold is already rising in price, and inflation has not yet decreased.

Fighting tax havens will kill private equity.

An aggressive policy towards tax havens, offshore, low tax jurisdictions and other ways to reduce or dilute tax liabilities is a long-standing trend.. Since 2023, the OECD countries have been tightening the screws even tighter - times are not easy and every penny counts, and here $ 500-600 billion. budget losses annually.

And the result is depressing - shaking the entire industry of foreign direct investment and venture capital, because capital in the Cayman or Bermuda, Bahamas or Mauritius is eliminated from the big game. There is no one to replace such volumes, risky investors are needed, and they just ignore the capital transparency standards from the OECD. As a result, the struggle for taxes will turn into a battle for investments..

OPEC+ and Chindia leave the IMF, and the dollar replaces a new reserve asset - bancor.

Although less than a fifth of international trade goes to the US, more than a third of international trade is billed in dollars and almost 60% of the world's foreign exchange reserves are in US dollars..

The ban on operations with Russian sovereign organizations in February 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, caused a shock in countries that are not in a military alliance with the United States.

These countries are wondering if their dollar assets and even assets in euros, yen and sterling could suddenly be subject to freeze orders imposed by the US Treasury and its allies.? Yes, and I would like to get away from the ubiquitous financial monitoring.

And now, at a landmark conference convened in Astana, Kazakhstan, the leaders of OPEC+, mainland China, Hong Kong, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Central Asia and dozens of African Union countries are going to create a monetary union based on a new unit of account and a reserve asset -. The new currency can only be kept in the central banks of the participating countries and is used to settle international transactions and as a reserve asset.

All member countries of the newly created monetary union withdraw from the IMF. Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong stop pegging their currencies to the US dollar.

Market Impact: Non-Aligned Central Banks Cut Their Dollar Reserves Significantly, U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Soar, and the Dollar Falls 25% Against a Basket of Currencies Trading with the New Currency.

And this prediction is also not far from the truth - the BRICS countries have already announced the process of creating a single currency.

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***.

Of course, these are not all shock predictions, there were Macron's resignation, and the rejection of natural meat, and a change in Japan's debt policy - no less interesting, but less likely events.. But all of the above, perhaps, except for UnBrexit, is almost our reality. Evaluate how the world has changed dramatically in a year.

Read more articles by Yulia Melnichuk at the link.

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