Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February this year shocked everyone, writes Nick Paton Walsh, CNN's international security editor.

[see_also ids\u003d"

And those who considered Moscow sane enough not to take such large-scale and reckless actions. And those who believed that the Russian military would march across a land of 40 million people and move into cleansing operations within 10 days.. And those who thought they had the technical and reconnaissance prowess to do more than randomly bombard civilian areas with obsolete artillery; that the Kremlin army became more perfect after they leveled Grozny in Chechnya in the 90s.

And, finally, those who believed that in 2022 it was impossible to thoughtlessly threaten people with nuclear bombs, since the destruction they bring is deadly for everyone on the planet.

However, as 2023 approaches, Europe is left with a number of known unknowns that were unimaginable back in January 2022..

Recall that the armed forces, once considered the third in the world in power, invaded the territory of their smaller neighbor, which a year ago was doing well mainly in the field of information technology and agriculture..

Russia spent billions of dollars modernizing its military, but it turned out to be largely a sham. She discovered that her supply chains were not functioning within a few tens of kilometers from her own borders.; that her assessment of Ukraine as desperately in need of liberation from its own "

[see_also ids\u003d"

Russia also met with the West, which, far from being divided and restrained, on the contrary, was glad to send part of its ammunition to its eastern border..

Western officials may also be surprised that Russia's red lines seem to be constantly changing as Moscow realizes how limited its non-nuclear capabilities are.. None of this should have happened. So what is Europe to do and what to prepare for now that this has happened?

The key point is how unexpectedly united the West is.. Despite the split over Iraq, the split over Syria, and the partial unwillingness to spend 2% of GDP on security, which the United States has long demanded from NATO members, Europe and the United States acted in Ukraine according to the same scenario.. At times, Washington could seem more cautious, and there were autocratic exceptions, such as Hungary.. But the shift is towards unity, not divergence.. It's pretty unexpected.

Claims that Russia has already lost the war are still premature. There are factors that could still lead to a stalemate in her favor or even a turning point.. NATO may lose patience or nerves over arms deliveries and seek economic feasibility over long-term security, insisting on a peace that is unfavorable to Kyiv. But at the moment it seems unlikely.

Russia has dug in on the eastern bank of the Dnieper in southern Ukraine and has the advantage that the Donetsk and Lugansk fronts in eastern Ukraine are closer to its border.

However, its problems are huge: poorly trained, forcibly conscripted personnel make up 77,000 of its front-line troops - and this is according to a glossy estimate voiced by Putin. She has difficulty with ammunition and regularly faces open internal criticism of her winter supply system..

Ukraine is on its territory, its morale is still high, and Western weapons continue to arrive. Ever since Moscow's scattered forces around Kharkiv collapsed in September - where their supply lines were cut by smarter Ukrainian forces - the dynamics have been against Moscow all the time..

The prospect of Russia's defeat lies in the fact that it did not quickly win against a weaker opponent. Almost a paper tiger, the Russian armed forces will struggle for decades to restore at least a semblance of equal status with NATO..

Herein lies perhaps the greatest damage to the Kremlin: years of effort spent restoring Moscow's reputation as a smart, asymmetrical adversary with conventional forces to back it up evaporated in about six months of mediocre and senseless war..

The issue of nuclear forces is still relevant, mainly because Putin likes to refer to it regularly.. But even here the threat to Russia has diminished.. First, NATO sends unambiguous signals about the conventional destruction that its forces would cause if any form of nuclear device were used.. Second, Russia's allies India and China were quick to appreciate its loss and publicly condemn Moscow's nuclear rhetoric.. (Their private messages were probably more acrimonious).

Finally, Moscow is left with a question no one will ever want to know the answer to: if its tank diesel supply chains 40 miles from the border are down, then how can they be sure the button will work if Putin is dragging on madly.? There is no greater danger for a nuclear power than to find that its strategic missiles and retaliation capabilities are not functioning..

[see_also ids\u003d"

Despite the palpable decline of Russia, Europe does not welcome the advent of an era of greater security. Calls for increased defense spending are growing louder and heeded, even as Russia, which for decades has been the defining issue of European security, is showing itself less threatening.

Europe understands that it cannot depend on security issues only on the United States and its wild fluctuations between political poles..

Meanwhile, thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died in Putin's selfish and misguided attempt to revive the Tsarist empire.. More broadly, authoritarianism has been exposed as a disastrous system.

However, something good came out of this fiasco.. Europe understands that it must immediately get rid of dependence on Russian gas, and in the long term - from hydrocarbons in general, since economic dependence on dictators' fossil fuels cannot ensure long-term stability.

So, how should the West deal with Russia, which has suffered a colossal loss of face in Ukraine and is slowly withering economically due to sanctions Should we be afraid of a weak Russia or is it just weak? It's a known unknown that the West must contend with. But that's not such a big deal anymore..

For more than 70 years, Russia and the West have held the world in the grip of mutually assured destruction.. It was a world built on fear. But the fear of Moscow must gradually subside, and with it comes the risk of miscalculation.. In addition, a less frightening prospect is emerging: Russia — like many autocracies before it — could fade away, undermined by its own clumsy reliance on fear at home..

The challenge for Europe now is to deal with Russia as it enters a state of irreversible decline..

The consolation is that by underestimating Moscow's potential for malignity, Europe risks overestimating its potential as a still-existing threat..

Recall that former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius recommends that Vladimir Putin and the Russians return to reality if they want to save their country. He stressed that the Russian Federation needs negotiations that will concern the future not of Ukraine, but of the federation itself..

" They need negotiations not about Ukraine, but about their own destiny, Linkevicius stressed.