Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine showed the world that a " This inspired new life in the discussion on the topic of "

The collapse of modern Russia following the example of the USSR is considered a possible or even desirable result of a failed invasion of Ukraine, writes Leonid Bershidsky on the pages of Bloomberg. Some regret that the US did not set such a goal in the 1990s, when post-Soviet Russia was in ruins and could not cope with a tiny region that wanted to become independent - Chechnya.. Bershidsky writes that these discussions cause him deja vu. After all, it is very easy to imagine the division of Russia into a handful of new state formations, especially after the USSR, it would seem, collapsed with such ease..

In 2013, the Russian writer Vladimir Sorokin, who most accurately predicted the rise of fascism in Russia, in his novel Telluria wrote about the Russian Empire as follows: “If only she, this beautifully merciless giantess in a diamond diadem and snowy mantle, had safely collapsed in February 1917. But things went differently." In Telluria, Russia was eventually divided into largely autocratic principalities of " But even Sorokin did not consider the lost invasion as a trigger for the collapse of the Russian Federation. However, the defeat in Ukraine, combined with economic pressure from the West, could realistically provoke an economic catastrophe similar to the one that launched the fall of the USSR.. It can give impetus to the centrifugal tendencies that Putin was so proud to stifle by building his power vertical..

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There are many reasons why the collapse of the federation is good even for the Russian people, especially for those people who do not live in Central Russia.. In a certain sense, Putin did not just start a discussion about the division of the country with his reckless attack. He also made this process possible from an intellectual standpoint when he began making claims about " If it is possible to discuss the core of the Russian state instead of the country within its modern borders, then it can be argued that this core is much smaller than modern Russia.. Especially if we discard all the imperial conquests, among which are those that were obtained before 1721, when Russia officially became an empire. A significant part of Siberia is included in this category..

The incorporation of some territories into the RSFSR, which became the Russian Federation after the death of the USSR, was as much a “catastrophe” of the Soviet times as was the highest-level statehood of former Soviet republics such as Ukraine, Uzbekistan or Moldova. Tatarstan is just such a case. Last year, 55% of schoolchildren in Kazan indicated Tatar as their native language. Does the region conquered by Ivan the Terrible in 1552 really belong to the Russian core Is he tied to the country somehow stronger than, for example, Kazakhstan? Many locals will say no. The Tuva Republic, which only joined the USSR in 1944, experienced a series of separatist riots in the 1990s.. It definitely belongs to the historical core of Russia? And Dagestan, conquered at the beginning of the 19th century, where less than 4% of schoolchildren study Russian as their native language? All these republics would become independent states if the communist authorities of the USSR appointed them \?

All these questions feed politicians in countries that Russia considers geopolitical enemies.. Stirring up nationalist or anti-colonial sentiment in a Russian Federation weakened by a failed war makes sense on several levels, and even more so than in the 1990s.. The coming to power in Moscow of an aggressive, irrational leader is no longer a theoretical threat. It is very easy to imagine such a scenario repeating itself.. The best way to protect against this possibility is Putin's military and ideological defeat.. Using the same historical arguments that a Russian autocrat uses to justify his imperialist ambitions will turn his own ideological weapon against him.. The war against Ukraine has shown that the Russian army cannot provide troops and fight effectively on the vast Ukrainian territory.. What will Putin do if a number of countries inside an even larger Russian Federation suddenly rise up?

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It can be argued that the division of Russia will not really deprive her of revanchist opportunities to start collecting all the lost republics again.. The threat won't go away. This is what she did after the Bolshevik coup and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. And now she is again trying to regain control over neighboring countries after the collapse of the USSR. Reduced Russia will not necessarily remain in this state. Radical nationalists and populists will gain even more power after the humiliating fall of the country. In addition, Russia will still have its nuclear arsenal.. But those considering Russia's " A few decades will be enough to integrate Russian neighbors into the Western world and build a strong defense against new imperialist attacks..

“As a Russian, I get heavy feelings from talking about the dismemberment of my country, as if Russia is a cancer patient who lies unconscious on the operating table.. And only numerous amputations can stop the growth of the tumor even more.. I don't like the idea that the only way for us to stop being a threat to our neighbors is to break up.. And I hope it's not the imperialist in me who protests against this opinion.. Russian vastness and diversity is the basis of our statehood in the modern sense. “Reasonable sizes” is not about us. But at the same time, on an intellectual level, I understand that the collapse of the Russian Federation can benefit many Russian people,” the author writes..

Boris Yeltsin offered the Russian regions " Putin, on the other hand, strengthened his “vertical”, restoring centralization, which sucked all the blood from the Russian periphery. Only 23 out of 85 Russian regions did not receive federal subsidies this year. And most of them are inhabited by ethnic Russians (Tatarstan is an exception). This gives the impression that most provinces, especially those with distinct national identities, will be helpless if they are detached from the center.. But this is how Putin's system works, which sucks money from the periphery, and then "

Russian Academy of Sciences economist Viktor Suslov has done a great job figuring out why this is happening.. In 2018, in his work, he, along with colleagues, argued that the Russian Central Federal Region, including Moscow, works like a black hole, absorbing 35% more resources from other regions than it returns. Siberia, the Urals, the Far East and the North-West (including St. Petersburg) - each of these regions gives 10-13% more than it receives. It is not surprising that Suslov works in Novosibirsk, the center of one of the regions from which the “big Moscow pump” pumps out all the vital juices..

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It is not known whether it is possible to achieve a more equitable distribution of resources, as well as stopping the mass migration of people following money to Moscow, without radical decentralization, and possibly even the complete collapse of the Russian Federation.. Some Russian regions may even build smarter political systems instead of the Moscow quasi-monarchy. Or maybe they won’t succeed, as the experience of the 1990s showed, when the regional “kings” became more authoritative than the Kremlin.

In the Urals, Siberia and the Far East, the rebellious spirit of the pioneers and former convicts is still alive.

Omsk artist Damir Muratov created the flag of the " And this is more than a reference to the work of Jasper Johns. One can really imagine a country over which such a flag would be raised..

“I still hope without hope that democracy, the end of aggressive imperialism, the equal development of territories and true equality between all ethnic groups are possible within the modern Russian borders.. However, this hope may be nothing more than an atavism.. Russia does not tolerate its size well. She may never learn,” admits the author..