The war in Ukraine is far from over. But a consensus is emerging in Chinese political circles that at least one country will emerge victorious from this catastrophe: China itself..

After a bewildered initial reaction to the Russian invasion, China has formed the building blocks of a strategy designed to insulate it from the widest economic and political impacts, and to capitalize on geopolitical landslides when the smoke clears..

The New York Times writes about it. Chinese leader Xi Jinping refused to criticize Vladimir Putin. But he also tried to distance his country from the Russian-sponsored massacre.. His government condemned the international sanctions imposed against Moscow. But so far, there have been signs that Chinese companies will adhere to them in order to protect Chinese economic interests in the West..

Last week, Xi Jinping turned to European leaders with vague offers to help arrange things at the same time that other Chinese officials were stepping up Russian disinformation campaigns aimed at discrediting the US and NATO.. Officials in Washington say, without release of evidence, that Russia asked China for military and economic assistance after the invasion.. Today, Chinese officials dismissed it as disinformation..

After all, the Chinese authorities believe they should try to rise above the "

“This means that if we do not make strategic mistakes, Chinese modernization will not be limited, but rather the opposite.. China will have an even greater opportunity to play a more important role in building a new international order,” said Zhang Yongning, professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, who serves as an adviser to senior officials in Beijing..

At the heart of China's strategy is the belief that the US is weakened by reckless foreign escapades, including what Beijing sees as " In terms of this belief, which has been repeatedly repeated in public statements and quasi-analyses in recent days, the Russian invasion focuses American power and attention on Europe.. This means that President Biden, like his predecessors, will unsuccessfully try to shift the focus to China and the Asia-Pacific region..

“All the difficulties, balancing and humiliation that we are talking about are short-term. In the long run, Russia will become a pariah of the international community. And Russia will have no one to turn to but China,” said Yun San, director of the Chinese program at the Stimson Center in Washington..

China's way forward is not certain. Too much rapprochement with Russia could perpetuate hostile views of China in Europe and beyond. And this possibility is very worrying for the Xi Jinping government.. If Germany, France and other allies build up their defenses as promised, the US will be able to direct its military resources to contain China.. Biden called for an "

“We also feel very alarmed because the Russian-Ukrainian war will force Europe to be more supportive of the United States.. And then China will become even more mired in the dilemma,” said Su Fan, professor of international relations at Nanjing University..

In his opinion, US allies in the Pacific, including Japan and Australia, “will also take a tougher military stance.. And all this seems very unfriendly to China.”. Beijing's initial uncertainty after the start of the Russian invasion provoked uncertainty about Xi Jinping's ability to deal with the aftermath of the war.. He has repeatedly warned Chinese officials that the world is entering an era of upheaval " However, these officials were ill-prepared for Putin's attack against Ukraine..

Up until the moment of the invasion, they rejected all reservations that Russia was preparing for war, accusing the United States of provoking tension. And now they find it difficult to combine their support for Russian security aspirations with their own emphasis on the need to respect national sovereignty.. And Ukraine is no exception here.. During video talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Xi condemned the return of the flames of war in Europe. However, his diplomats have so far fueled this fire of Russian disinformation, accusing the US of developing "

It just reflects badly on Chinese foreign relations.. It's not just about China's reputation in the West. I think it also affects his reputation in non-Western countries, because it actually associates him with imperialist power,” said Bobo Lo, an expert on Sino-Russian relations at the French Institute of International Relations..

China could face economic turmoil from the war and Western efforts to punish Russia by restricting trade and isolating its financial institutions. Chinese officials condemned such measures. US and allies showed extraordinary unity in endorsing sanctions. But other countries share Beijing's concern about using powerful economic tools as a weapon..

If anything, the Chinese economy is big enough to absorb blows that would knock others off their feet.. Chinese companies may even take advantage of Russia's desperation, as happened in 2014 when Moscow faced sanctions after occupying Crimea..