Dear Russians, let's talk about how you will live the next 18 years of your life. Let's say that you are an average Russian resident. "Maidan", which is so afraid of "patriots", did not happen, that's why the country is stable and Putin. Moreover: all the wise plans of our helmsman, finally, realized (although until now this has not happened).
Last week, Kommersant published excerpts from the results of the work of the Ministry of Economy and other departments of the White House on the plan of action until 2025, including - from the adjusted economic forecast of the Ministry of Economy to 2035. The document was very interesting.
I'll start with the good news: by 2035 your salary will grow! Yes Yes! In an optimistic scenario - almost one and a half times. That is, instead of today's $ 497, an average Russian will receive as much as $ 800!.
Well, why are not you happy? Maybe, because this is the level of today's China (the very "cheap labor force" that pushes consumer goods and iPhone for a cup of rice), Lithuania and Estonia? Or because you earned $ 1215 back in 2009? Or because in developed countries already now earn 4 times more than you will earn a pension? Oh, yes, I forgot to say that the average pension will grow as much as $ 350. Do not refuse anything in yourself.
True, first you have to work hard: the productivity of your work should grow 3.4 times. If you are embarrassed by this figure and you do not understand why it is necessary to work more than three and a half times, and get for it - only in one and a half, and how can a doctor or teacher in general work three times more if in the day only 24 hours, I I will calm you down.
Of course, the dentist will not be able to put three patients in the same chair at once, and the teacher - to force 90 people into the class instead of 30. They will simply cut funding for the rate, and productivity growth is possible only in industries with a high degree of automation: throw out on the street we replace 7 out of 10 workers with iron and voila - productivity has increased.
Therefore, GDP growth over the next 18 years is planned to be modest - by 76%. To do this, the average growth rate of GDP should be slightly above 3% per year. This is slightly more than in developed countries (US GDP is growing by about 2.7% per year), slightly below the world average and almost half as much as now our neighbors in BRICS - China, India and Brazil.
At first glance, it is difficult to name such an ambitious plan: in the past, a much larger forecast from the Economic Development Ministry in 2013 was promised to us by far more interesting indicators: average annual GDP growth of 5.0-5.3% and growth of real average wages by 3.630 in 3.6 Times. But, as the Gospel says, do not judge recklessly. To understand if it's really possible to get at least this, let's start by recalling why the past plan did not justify itself.
The first reason lies on the surface: it was planned that oil quotes would grow (although from what it?) And by 2030 will reach $ 160-170 per barrel in current prices. But if it was only this!.
I will give a few quotations from the previous forecast:.
"Target scenario. Characterized by accelerated growth rates, an increased rate of private business accumulation, the creation of a large non-extractive export sector and a significant inflow of foreign capital ".
And the best way to attract foreign capital is, of course, to start a war in Ukraine and get under international sanctions that have blocked the flow of foreign investment and access to high-tech equipment for the non-primary sector.
"In the next 20 years, the Russian economy will not be able to return to the growth trajectory of 2000-2008, and even maintaining a lower growth rate will require significant reforms that can create a favorable business environment for attracting investment, enhance the role of innovative development".
Favorable business environment. Let's think about it. Yarovoy's package, the creation and expansion of Rosgvardia's powers, Platon, the blocking of websites, the ban on mass meetings, the Kirovles case, the wringing out of Vkontakte and Bashneft, the absurd lawsuit filed by Rosneft against AFK Sistema, attempts to restrict the rights of minority shareholders, the freezing of the funded part of pensions - , Not getting up from the chair. Raises, attracts, refreshes and invigorates - everything as planned.
"Average growth rates of investments in 2013-2030. Are assumed at the level of 8.1% per year ".
Growth? Do you not want negative values ??with such an investment climate? -1% in 2016 according to Rosstat (real -3%), -10.1% in 2015, -2.5% in 2014. To us already for a long time, even before 2013 there was not enough money for updating the decrepit fleet of industrial equipment and energy complex, we continue to eat the Soviet legacy, without creating anything new in return.
"The increase in productivity will also be based on an additional qualitative improvement in education and health, which will ensure GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points per year".
Probably, that's why we consistently reduce the budget for education and health care in favor of law enforcement agencies. We spend less on education, medicine, culture, sports and ecology than on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the UK. And if you add military spending, then less than 4 times. However, soon we will not even know about it - already 20% of the state budget is classified and the share of closed articles continues to grow.
"In addition, the conditions of the forced scenario suggest that improving health care will significantly reduce the death rate and increase the working-age population by 430% by 4% in relation to the baseline and conservative scenarios".
But this is especially funny. On health care per person, we spend exactly 40 times less than in the US. The losses from the reduction of health care costs are estimated at 300-500 thousand. Additional deaths for 2014-2017 and we plan to continue reducing costs.
There is a feeling that some dastardly saboteur has carefully read the 2013 Ministry of Finance forecast and did everything all the way around. All the siloviki have already gotten off their feet, Putin does not sleep at night - they are looking for this reptile, and they can not find it in any way.
But we will return from the past to the present, to the plan of the present.
Oil above $ 54.8 per barrel, we are not waiting, and it's good. Although taking into account Trump's decision to sell half of the 688 million barrels of the US strategic oil reserve and the recent OPEC fiasco, this figure looks overvalued.
I am silent about the improvement of the investment climate, investments are planned to be raised at the expense of state banks and other state development institutions that will be engaged in project financing. We have already seen what "projects" in the understanding of state officials are: the Winter Olympics in Sochi, the bridge to the Crimea, the APEC summit, the "Power of Siberia", the Zenith Stadium, the Vostochny Space Center. Simply put, these are black financial holes. Half of the money will be stolen and taken to offshore, half - buried in the collapsing cyclopean halabuds guest workers.
The development of "human capital" is planned to somehow be combined with a decline in the share of education and health in GDP. The share of investment in health and education in total investment will decrease from 3.4% in 2017-2020 to 2.8% in 2035. No money, but you develop, in short.
Here, in fact, and all the currently known strategic attempts of the Ministry of Economy. To this will be added the proposals of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) under the leadership of Alexei Kudrin (Finance Minister of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2011) and try to dazzle from the flaps of the economic Frankenstein.
That is, you understand: all the same people, under the strict guidance of the indefeasible Putin, will try with old methods to obtain radically new results. I would have admired their naivety, multiplied by perseverance, but common sense prevents me from doing this. Between the lines of all their programs a simple and understandable plan is read: We are going to dig out this country to the maximum, as long as we have such an opportunity. Milking is simplest in the raw materials sector and the budget through megaprojects, everything else is troublesome and inefficient. To the plebs not rebelled before the time, you need to powder his brains and try to make the fall smooth. Therefore, we will invest only in what will allow us to hold power as long as possible - to the security forces and propaganda. All other non-core expenditures (medicine, education, culture, and so on. ) Will be reduced.
In our situation, there are no prerequisites for improving the economic situation, in addition to the "veiled" in the program documents - "the economy will gradually adapt itself and, in spite of the government's actions, sooner or later will start to grow".
Now I will pounce a little and predict what your real prospects are by 2035 if you throw aside the verbal husks of officials and the figures taken from the ceiling by experts:.
If you are a hired worker, then in the best case and in 20 years you will continue to drag on a rather miserable existence. On food will suffice, for large purchases you will need to save a lot, about a big apartment, a new car, travel, quality medicine and good education for children can forget. In the worst case, your incomes will not only grow, but fall even lower. In addition, you have a good chance of being out of work.
If you are an entrepreneur, at best with your talent and perseverance, even in falling markets, you can earn decent money, build relationships with the right people on time, and not too "shine", so that your business does not seem to anyone a tasty morsel. Looking back, you will realize that you could achieve ten times more, having left in due time from the country. In the worst case, you will lose not only business, but also freedom, when the "competent authorities" will work for you.
If you are a major state official, then at best you will manage to finish up to retirement, accumulate solid capital, learn abroad children and move to your house in Spain or Miami. In the worst case, you will be devoured by "colleagues" during another internal hardware intrigue, your accounts abroad will be blocked, and you will not be able to leave to your house by the sea, having got on the next sanctions list. After the revolution, lustration, confiscation, a small prison term awaits you.
If you are an oligarch, you can at best live in Switzerland or Britain, ride a yacht and earn another billion, in time making / donating astronomical sums to the right people, as well as carrying out their other, sometimes humiliating assignments. In the worst case, your assets will be taken away as easily as you received them. If you escape and will show too much - choke on tea with polonium or hammer a scarf. After the revolution, your assets in the Russian Federation are nationalized, and you will hide from Interpol.
If you are a security official, at best you get a good salary and the opportunity to spit on the law (in the boundaries that you have given). If luck smiles, it can be converted into money. Going out of the country will be problematic, so you'll have to spend here. In the worst case, you will be arrested by colleagues from a competing agency, during another dispersal a stone will fly to your head, or after the revolution you will be judged by an international tribunal, and suddenly it turns out that you gave all the criminal orders yourself.
If you are Putin, at best you will be able to appoint a successor, having agreed with him about your immunity, and to live out your days in one of the palaces in the territory of the Russian Federation. In the worst case, you are waiting for the fate of Hussein, Gaddafi, Ceausescu or Paul I.
If you are Navalny, at best you will finish the second presidential term and, although this country will have the same name, Russia will change beyond recognition. For the better, of course. Well and in the worst case - the officials, power agents, oligarchs and Putin will realize the most rosy dreams.
How it will really be - it's up to you, but there's nothing more that frightens me personally than the prospect of 18 years watching the unhurried convulsions of our economy from the epicenter of events. It's too big a piece of life to let yourself be thrown to the wind.
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