The Kremlin unofficially with the words of the curator of domestic policy Sergei Kirienko announced his goal in the presidential election in 2018: a candidate from power - most likely, Vladimir Putin or his successor - should receive about 70% of the vote with voter turnout at least 70%. This is informally called the "70x70 schema".
As a political consultant in retirement, I must follow two basic professional commandments:.
A) never give advice that I am not asked for;.
B) do not give any advice if they do not pay me for it (and also without an advance of 30 or more percent).
But, as a pensioner, I have the right to be sentimental. And give some uninvited advice to the next generation of political technologists for free. Why should I lose, after all? "Everything has passed, the youth has passed" (c).
So, actually, I decided to recommend to the Kremlin something on the sacred topic "how to win". Regardless of the level of success of the current government in the fields of economy and social policy. And beyond any connection with my own interests: in politics they no longer exist.
As far as the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation (Mr. Kiriyenko and Co) can be understood, the main stakes in her (their) scenarios are on dead souls, they are also dead dead. The idea is simple, like death itself. The abolition of absentee certificates, which is not without pride of public power, will allow voting at the main elections in 2018 7-10 million Russians who have already gone to a meeting with the Lord, but because of inexperience / negligence they did not inform the election commissions of different levels. And so their names in the corresponding lists still appear. It is known that the deceased in the history of our country is the most loyal to the government part of the population, even pensioners are far away. It will remain so until, of course, the Moscow mayor's office and the leaders of some other large constituent entities of the Russian Federation come up with something like the renovation of cemeteries. With the provision to the dead of equivalent, but not equivalent, common (fraternal, sister) graves.
In the end, the Constitution of the Russian Federation does not state clearly that a voter must be physically alive. And his soul, which determines electoral motivation, is immortal in any scenario.
This central element of the scenario is already tentatively titled "Project Gogol".
Admittedly, the project is rather creative, but at the same time it may not be fully effective. Some of the dead, I'm afraid, will not suffice for total triumph. It is necessary nevertheless to take a little care and mobilization of the living.
Here I have suggestions.
The first of them is the most effective, but it is also the most radical.
Remember, the leading opposition politician A. Navalny once said that the peninsula Crimea - not a sandwich with sausage, all the time to transfer it from one country to another and back. I think it's not quite true. Crimea - a sandwich, and even the royal.
"No one, no one," he said. He got out of bed.
"No one, no one," he said, going down in his dressing gown.
"No one, no one," he said, soaping his hands with soap.
"No one, no one," he said, driving down the railing.
- No one will say that I'm a Tyrant and a madcap, For what I like for tea A good sandwich!.
(C) A. Milne, C. Marshak The script "Royal Sandwich" seems like this.
In the middle of January - optimally, for the old New Year (13/14. 01. 2018) a virtual (in the sense - not quite real) attempt on the head of state. Very light. Without fanaticism. In what format - we will not decipher, so as not to run into ... in short, you understand. One way or another, the president, who is also a presidential candidate, is taken to the Central Clinical Hospital (CDB). In fact, of course, unharmed.
14 January 2018 and. President becomes the chairman of the government of the same country, for example, Dmitry Medvedev.
15 January D. Medvedev as the interim head of Russia announces the launch of a system of measures to return the Crimea to Ukraine. The first measure is the transfer of office work in the Crimea to the total surzhik.
January 19, at the peak of Epiphany frosts, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Crimea begins. That it was not hot to go out.
January 25, in Tatyana's day, miraculously saved In. Putin leaves the CDB, immediately fires Mr. Medvedev and returns the peninsula to Russia in the second round. A lightning-fast special operation is under way under the guidance of a man and an officer who ensured the bloodless annexation of the Crimea in 2014 - Hero of Russia Alexei Dumina. Which three years ago was the commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, and now temporarily works as the governor of the Tula region, gaining experience in managing the depressed (and repressive too) territory. On February 7, on my (Belkovsky) birthday, Mr. Dumin becomes premier instead of the scandalous Mr. Medvedev. And together with Putin - in fact, as vice-president - goes to the elections. Which, as a sin, are appointed on the date of the first annexation of the peninsula.
And just before the elections it will be possible to say that in the Crimea within the framework of the Moscow project "renovation" will be built 25 million square meters. M semi-elite housing, and all Muscovites from rotten five-story buildings will be sent to the subtropics. Well, is not it awesome (like everything in Russia (s))?.
Believe me, there will not be 70x70. And all 80х80.
However, Mr. Putin with his conservative psychotype is unlikely to risk running such an adventurist combination.
Because we will offer something less radical.
As we recall, the collective West for the first time historically insulted Vladimir Putin in his best feelings thirteen and a half years ago (2003).
In those days, the Kremlin developed a fundamental plan for the Transnistrian settlement - the legalization of the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (PMR) as part of the recognized post-Soviet Moldova. Shuttle diplomacy in the Moscow-Chisinau-Tiraspol triangle (the capital of the DMR, if anyone does not remember) was occupied at that time by the deputy head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak. Therefore, the whole project received an unofficial name "Kozak plan". However, de facto it was the plan of Mr. Putin himself, who, if successful, could seriously claim the Nobel Peace Prize. Not every leader is capable of resolving a long-standing frozen conflict, is not it? !! That's why they hurried to turn everything up to the winter of 2003 to be nominated in January of the next year, as it should be according to the Nobel Charter.
The meaning of the plan was this. Moldova is transformed into an asymmetric federation. The most asymmetric part of which - with special powers in all spheres - is the Transnistrian Republic. And the guarantor of peace and human rights in the newly created federation - at least in the first 20 years of her life - the Russian troops. What would exclude, say, the Chisinau movement towards NATO.
At first everything went well and even very much. President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin and PMR head Igor Smirnov sort of agreed. And in late November 2003 it was necessary to sign an appropriate agreement in the Moldovan capital.
But literally on the eve of a bright day, when the honor guard of President Putin already departed for Chisinau, Mr. Voronin jumped off. Tear off the topic, as say the political scientists of the Z generation. Formally, he said that the Kremlin's plan is still bad: in fact, it is much more profitable for PMR than RM. (And where did you look, the old communist, all the previous days of negotiation?) And in fact - that the US and the EU do not give consent to the implementation of the scheme, and without it, trembling, will not act. Afront.
It was then that for the first time Vladimir Vladimirovich felt that from the West one should expect an infinitely toothy evil, as from the Baskervilles' dog in a swampy night. A psychological foundation was laid, on which, in the long run, many years later the "Crimean spring-2014".
But now, in 2017, the situation in and around Moldova is significantly different. Vladimir Voronin has long gone into political oblivion. In 2009, he was replaced by a pro-European coalition of political forces, which is in favor of NATO and the EU. In recent years, she herself has been discredited by vivid corruption scandals. Including the theft of 1 billion euros of Moldovan money by an organized group headed by ex-Prime Minister Vlad Filat (now in jail) and businessman, the husband of the singer Jasmine Ilan Shor (under house arrest, it is still useful to take a pop star as a wife). Disappointed Moldova recently elected the president of the pro-Russian socialist Igor Dodon. Which, apparently, would not mind returning to the plan-2003.
True, the parliament of the republic continues to control the pinned pro-European coalition, which Putin's plan - Kozak does not want. But not later than 2018, parliamentary elections will take place, and greedy corrupt officials can give way to most supporters of a strategic alliance with Moscow. The informal leader of whom is the same Mr. Dodon. And best of all for healthy Muscoventric forces - to inspire early elections this year, to fuse pro-NATO bored as soon as possible.
The most influential person in Moldova so far is the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, he is also the chairman of the "non-moving" Democratic Party, who, in fact, controls the parliamentary majority from behind the corner. And what is necessary, for a true success, with him to create?.
Correctly.
In early April 2017, the special services of Moldova and Ukraine stated that they had together prevented the murder of Mr. Plahotniuc. Terrorist act, so to speak.
So what, what prevented? Success comes with experience. We can repeat (with).
And if by the end of the year Moldova receives a pro-Russian parliament, it is possible somewhere in February 2018 to sign the final plan of the Transnistrian settlement. With all the ensuing consequences, including electoral.
Yes, the EU and the US are angry in earnest. But we already have nothing to lose in our relations with these Zhidogees, do we?.
But still the most homeopathic scenario remains the electoral change of the federal government. By the way, on April 26, 2017, Levada Center published a fresh survey, according to which 45% of Russians want to resign the current prime minister. Against - 33%. Especially impressive is the fall in one calendar year - from the spring of 2016 - the number of our fellow citizens who fully trust the chairman of the government: from 14 to 3 (!) Percent.
And the investigation of FBK them. Navalny, and the extravagant public behavior of the prime minister in the vein of rhetoric "No money, but you hang out there!" Did their thing. Removing an unpopular cabinet, the Kremlin can approach the "70x70" without major international military adventures. Moreover, not without the help of the Russian corpse-community, as reported above: cancel the project "Gogol" I, in any case, do not call.
Yes, if we believe the central version, Mr. Putin firmly promised his political son the premiership, at least until the spring of 2018. But large close circumstances may be more important and stronger than long-standing old obligations.
Then immediately there is a reasonable question: who will come to replace D. ? In order not to frighten the popular majority and, at the same time, to relax the progressive public (together with the West)?.
Rumors go different. I would single out four candidates. (Although, according to rumors, there are at least seven of them, and how many in fact, and the president himself does not yet know that even to mere mortals. ) Before enumeration, let us recall the main criteria for the selection by Vladimir Putin of the head of government - nominally, the second person in the hierarchy of power. They are those.
- For one reason or another, the prime minister should not be a direct political rival of the president. Neither immediately, nor in the future. It should have some birthmarks, in principle, interfere with the aspiration of the post number 1 (not to be confused with the place of the sentries at the Eternal Flame, Moscow time).
- The second person should not be significantly higher than the first. In the direct, physical sense of the word.
- Actual prime minister will be the president. This truth should be available to the post applicant a priori. Otherwise, kirdyk.
We will single out four of the eligible candidates - and those considered (as they say), and those who wish (possibly).
Valentina Matvienko, Speaker of the Federation Council.
The elderly (about politicians it is possible) the lady (68 years). An experienced diplomat: both formally (in his career), and in fact (he knows how to negotiate with people in an amicable way). Easily leads and women, and especially men. Delicate, tactful. Trouble-free: they said once to go to the election of the governor of St. Petersburg - went, said to withdraw from the election in favor of Putin's agreements with ex-governor Vladimir Yakovlev - filmed, ordered to move to the Federation Council - passed. Every time, not without a tear in the subtext, but without any clear resistance.
Valentina Ivanovna - an ideal mother-comforting people, angry with all sorts of "yes you hang out there" and other renovations.
Speaks English.
Maxim Oreshkin, Minister of Economic Development.
Young, good-looking. It does not belong to the old friends of the president, without burdening the head of state with memories of poor youth. Ambitious: almost every day makes suggestions, how to change everything, nothing changing. Perfectly plays the intellectual. Understand in the money - the former deputy head of the RF Ministry of Finance. Recently, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov (also a possible candidate, only a very high one) said that it is the ore mine development ministry in Oryoshkin that should become the single center for shaping the image of the future RF. Hinted at something? Prepared? Progressive public and the West will in general not be frightened.
Speaks English.
Sergei Kiriyenko, first deputy head of the presidential administration, Russian Prime Minister in March-August 1998.
If you once (1998) took all the responsibility for default, you're a man. If you are not afraid to commit yourself to the "70x70" commitment, you are a man doubly. In addition, the Jewish peasant is Jewish, which excludes direct presidential ambitions. In our time - the group's creativity br. Kovalchukov, close proxies of the president. Progressive public and the West are mostly satisfied.
Speaks English.
German Gref, President of the Savings Bank of the Russian Federation.
A relatively new (at the rumor level) applicant, but rather convincing. Headed by him almost 10 years, Sberbank of Russia has long outgrown. Worked as Minister of Energy Development and Trade in the most golden years. According to the testimony of President Putin, Gref called the premiere of M. Kasyanov was a crook and refused to work with him, to the best of his ability,. A longtime friend of the president, but he does not allow himself too much. In addition, of course, constructive criticism of the system of power in general - but most of the major officials are not capable of this. And most importantly: judging by his public speeches, he understood well the modern technological revolution and why Russia is catastrophically behind it. He said that soon, in principle, there will be no commercial banks in the old format, the accounts of enterprises and citizens will be in central banks, the era of bitcoins /. In general, my favorite, although I (unfortunately or fortunately) no one asks.
Speaks English and German.
Concluding this brief conversation, I will say the following.
A) Actually, personally to me as a citizen it does not matter, by what scenario the Kremlin candidate will be re-elected.
B) There are always strange random events - "black swans", capable of bringing down any kind of layout, seemingly the most verified and tested.
C) Nobody knows the future, even one who on this side of the earth's trick is obliged to know everything.
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