The IP group oversaw the development of these shares, and also analyzed the background of protest activity in the regions of the South and East. We wanted to make a general cut on the eve of the 4th anniversary of the Maidan in order to understand what scenarios are possible. A few remarks.
The first. It is possible to argue, whether the protest under the Supreme Council of Ukraine brought any political dividends and to whom. But one result is visible with the naked eye - the tent city already causes sharp dislike of the people of Kiev, who frankly do not understand: why to block the street. Grushevsky, if the total number of "protesters" is several dozen?.
I will not emphasize who and what is protesting, but our conclusions are unambiguous: in this form the action under the Rada works to marginalize the protest activity. As experience shows, without the support of Kiev, any protest is doomed. And imported miners, and imported participants in the processions of the cross, this has been proved repeatedly. If you rely on common sense, then, for example, the party "Self-help" should persevere all to beg the inspirers of the tent camp to clear the roadway. If no journalist comes to the press conference with Egor Sobolev, it's already a bell.
The second. Over the past month, we recorded a decline in protests around "political" issues. Political scientists are now arguing whether the protests under the AGP are a technology for "releasing steam" or not. For our part, we can only record the fact of a decrease in the number of protest actions in the regions. Although we could expect the opposite, because at the end of October elections were held in two hundred OTGs. Meanwhile, the elections were quiet, with the exception of several incidents.
The results of the elections, among other things, showed that the situation in the regions (South and East of Ukraine) on the eve of the traditional autumn peak of protest activity is very different. For example, Kharkiv region against the background of the rest looks relatively calm, the situation there is controlled better than in other regions. This is the result of the work of the siloviki, and considerable merit of the regional authorities. Dnepropetrovsk region looks good, despite the noticeable presence of anti-Ukrainian forces.
According to our estimates, the most difficult situation in the Zaporozhye and Odessa regions, but in each - with its own specifics.
In Zaporozhye, the situation is consistently heavy, the risk of becoming a "new Donbass" remains at the expense of the total domination of one business-political grouping. It is from here that they can start playing a map of "social protests", "restoring ties with Russia" and. It is here that the revanchist agenda can be manifested most visually.
In Odessa due to the presence of competing groups, the situation is consistently troubled. The same elections in the OGT documented the variegation of the picture and pointed out that the regional authorities do not yet manage the situation, despite visible successes in the same road construction.
The third. It is to Odessa that we call for special attention. Because there are several factors that can be used to build up external forces.
On the one hand - there is sincere indignation of citizens who do not believe in the chance of a series of fires in the beach zone, are concerned about the fate of the Green Theater, categorically against the possible development of part of the City Garden, etc.. On the other hand, there is an odious mayor and no less odious builder of Syrian origin, who are clarifying relations between themselves. And in view of the fact that it is absolutely deservedly the mayor is the object of criticism of pro-Ukrainian and active citizens, there are attempts on the part of the groups opposing the mayor to use these protests for their own purposes, which have little connection with the goal of stabilizing the situation in Odessa. And more are connected with the attempt to protect themselves from unpleasant questions from the siloviki in their address.
I have repeatedly expressed my attitude to the mayor of Odessa. But I continue to be in the same position: the replacement of the mayor without the risk of destabilizing the entire region is possible only at a time when the regional authorities will earn a certain authority and will enjoy sufficient support. Now, let's say, this process is far from complete and not as successful as we would like. And without the support of the people of Odessa the result will be exactly the opposite.
In general, we see that on the anniversary of Maidan there will be a certain surge of activity and ordinary citizens who are unhappy with the situation, and those politicians who try to earn points by discrediting the authorities.
From the new - we see the preparation for the deployment of revenge-winning actions, the prelude to which will be a kind of "summing up" for 4 years in the style of discredit under the slogans such as "boarded on the Maidan", with the subsequent revival of revanchist networks under socio-economic slogans with a view to elections.
The message of the IS group remains the same. Are you going to go to protest? Understand who is the organizer, who will "protest" next to you and for what purpose. So as not to appear, as with the protests of October 17: people were taken out for some demands, they began to change during the play, but now everything has been transformed into "people's impeachment of the president", about which at first no one stuttered. And most of the organizers quickly disappeared, and now shyly hides.
Original.