Winter was in full swing when Moscow landed several hundred paratroopers at the neighboring country's main airfield, ordering them to seize the capital, assassinate the president, and install a puppet regime.. As the tanks approached the border, the Kremlin expected this neighboring country to collapse soon.. This was Moscow's plan for the Soviet army's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979..

Four decades later, Vladimir Putin used the same recipe for overconfidence to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.. He also hoped to quickly capture Kyiv, after which the whole country would have to capitulate, writes the Financial Times..

“There is a depressing direct parallel between how a group of elderly men in the Kremlin made a bad decision to invade Afghanistan and how another group of elderly men in the Kremlin decided to invade Ukraine,” said Russia expert and historian Mark Galeotti..

“In both cases, the military believed that the invasion was a bad idea, but they were rejected,” he added..

The invasion of Afghanistan cost the lives of 15 thousand Soviet soldiers. It turned into a 10-year quagmire, which ended only after the withdrawal of troops. In Ukraine, where 100,000 Russian troops have already been killed or wounded in 10 months of war, the Kremlin persists in misinterpreting national sentiment.. And it's even worse. The Russian army failed to capture Kyiv. And Ukrainian troops ousted it from half of the territories that they managed to occupy. But Moscow seems to remain adamant. Ukraine constantly warns that Russia is planning a new attack on the Ukrainian capital, although its ability to launch a large offensive has been lost.

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What other lessons can be learned from the war in Ukraine and how it will develop in 2023? One of the key takeaways that military officials and analysts point to is that " And it requires countries to have industrial capabilities and vast stockpiles of weapons to keep up high-intensity fighting..

Ukraine was armed with what British Defense Secretary James Hippy called " The US will also send Patriot air defense systems as part of a new $1.85 billion package.. Until now, the West, fearing an escalation of the conflict that would lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, refuses to transfer modern tanks, aircraft and long-range missiles, which Kyiv asked for..

“The key question for 2023 is how much military support the West will give to Ukraine and what it will be,” said Domitilla Sagramoso, a Russia expert at King’s College London..

The third lesson for Moscow. And he says quality is more important than quantity. Good logistics, a high level of training of troops and adequate technical support “are worthless if intelligence and command are inadequate,” said former British Army brigadier and expert at the Institute for Strategic Studies Ben Barry. He stressed that the Russian army continues to demonstrate "

In an attempt to rectify the situation, in October Putin appointed General Sergei Surovikin as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.. As a veteran of the Syrian war, he is " Surovikin strengthened the Russian fronts with about 300 thousand mobilized soldiers. He also led a successful retreat from Kherson, where Russian troops were threatened with captivity.. These stronger defensive positions reduced the chances that the Ukrainian winter counteroffensive would be successful and could cut the land corridor between Crimea and Russia.. Although Western military analysts believe that such a breakthrough is still possible.

“Ukrainian forces have their own problems. They suffered heavy losses, many do not have proper training. And some units suffer from extreme fatigue. In addition, they need more weapons and ammunition,” said an unnamed Western defense adviser..

“But their morale and determination are incomparably higher than those of their opponents,” he added, stressing that the Ukrainian military is much more effective than the mobilized Russians..

The fourth lesson is the importance of civil society in sustaining the war effort.. Ukrainian software developers created applications that helped the military strike Russian positions. Chefs cook for Ukrainian soldiers at the front, and volunteers continue to raise funds for the purchase of military equipment.

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“To a large extent, Ukrainian success on the battlefield depends on a diverse and confident civil society capable of supporting soldiers,” said Yale University historian Timothy Snyder..

In October, a Gallup poll found that 70% of Ukrainians want to continue fighting until victory.. And more than 90% are convinced that victory is the resumption of control over all the territories that Russia has occupied since 2014, including Crimea. At the same time, Russian support for the war halved between June and November.. Only 27% of Russians want the war to continue, according to an internal poll conducted by the Kremlin and published by Meduza.

The fifth and, probably, the most important lesson of the war is that it is fought on different fronts and not only with tanks, missiles and guns.. Putin is constantly trying to destroy the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to break the Ukrainian will to fight and provoke a new wave of refugees in Europe.. He threatens to further cut gas supplies in the dead of winter. And while Ukraine is exporting grain again thanks to an agreement the UN and Turkey helped broker, the Russian navy still controls the Black Sea, threatening Ukrainian export routes..

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“Putin's signal seems to be that the shelling will continue and he can do it for as long as he wants..

This political strategy is designed to create distance between Ukraine and the West. The course of a war depends not only on military equipment,” Galeotti explained..

Even if both sides, tired of fighting, agree to a truce next year, Putin's aggression against Ukraine could still continue, but by other means..

“The nature of modern warfare is changing, but so is the nature of the world.. This is something the West should think about,” Galeotti added..