Moscow has been creating conditions similar to preparing for a new invasion of northern Ukraine since at least October 2022, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). True, analysts note that now the indicators are ambiguous - some confirmed evidence of a buildup of Russian forces in Belarus makes more sense in the context of preparing for a new offensive than the current exercises and training. But at the same time, there is no evidence that Moscow is actively preparing strike forces in Belarus..

“Concern about the possibility that Putin might be pursuing a target is certainly not just a Ukrainian information operation to pressure the West to provide Kyiv with more weapons, as some Western analysts suggest.. ISW continues to assess that a resumption of a large-scale Russian invasion from Belarus this winter is unlikely, but it is a possibility that should be taken seriously..

ISW added that according to the statements of well-known Russian bloggers, the Russian Federation may be preparing a new offensive in the winter-spring period.. Moreover, the purpose of such an invasion may be to seize the territory of Ukraine or divert Ukrainian forces from other sectors of the front..

As early as October, some milbloggers began to speculate about the possibility of a renewed Russian attack on northern Ukraine.. According to ISW, the Russian Telegram channel Rybar, whose author is now part of Putin's mobilization working group, said on October 20 that there were rumors of an imminent Russian offensive against Lviv, Volyn, Kyiv, Chernihiv or Kharkiv.. Another milblogger said on October 20 that the combined forces in Belarus are too small to attack Kyiv, but stated that he would not deny if Russian troops attacked the city of Chernihiv.

Vladimir Putin's upcoming meeting with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg on December 26-27 will, analysts say, push the Russian information operation around a possible offensive, even if it does not directly support preparations for it..

In addition, ISW noted that the Russian military continues to take certain actions, intensifying the information operation aimed at establishing the plausibility of a possible offensive or actually preparing for its implementation.. In particular, on November 24, the Russian Ministry of Defense defiantly stated that he had a field hospital in Belarus.. In turn, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced on December 23 that Russian troops plan to deploy at least one more field hospital in Belarus..

“Field hospitals are not necessary for exercises and may indicate preparation for combat operations. The appearance of field hospitals in Belarus in early 2022 was one of the last indicators seen before Russia launched its full-scale invasion,” the analysts explained..

The Russian Federation also continues to transfer troops to Belarus under the guise of exercises. Some Russian T-90 tanks reportedly transferred to Belarus at the end of December 2022 were seen wearing winter camouflage. ISW noted that equipping tanks with winter camouflage is not absolutely necessary for training and may indicate preparation for real winter combat operations.. However, the deployment of field hospitals and the repainting of tanks can also be part of the information operation..

“ISW’s forecast of a potential Russian offensive against northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 remains the worst-case scenario within the forecast cone. The ISW currently assesses the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low but possible.. Belarusian forces are very unlikely to invade Ukraine without a Russian strike force. The Ukrainian military noted that Russia did not create strike groups in Belarus. Russian milbloggers also point out that Russia has not corrected fundamental shortcomings in its military campaign, such as a lack of new equipment, poor leadership, and insufficient forces to support a successful offensive operation..

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Recall, the military-political command of Ukraine warns that Russia is preparing to launch a new offensive against Ukraine in 2023.. The most optimistic option is if this happens in February-March. At the same time, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny notes that it is not yet clear in which direction this will happen.. Therefore, he does not rule out that the occupiers will again try to capture Kyiv, starting the operation from Belarus.

On December 19, for the first time in three years, Russian leader Vladimir Putin traveled to Minsk to negotiate with dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

Most likely, there he wanted to persuade the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus to directly participate in the war against Ukraine, but analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War believe that Putin did not succeed..

Did Putin manage to get what he wanted during his first visit to Minsk in three years on the issue of Belarus' participation in the Russian-Ukrainian war and integration projects? Address \? Read about the results of the Russian president's trip to Minsk in Vladimir Kravchenko's article "