The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now in its fourth month and is increasingly escalating into a war of attrition, exhausting both Ukrainian and Russian forces.. More indiscriminate killings of civilians and Russian shelling of Ukrainian infrastructure.

There is a chorus of voices among politicians and national security experts in Western Europe calling for an immediate ceasefire.. Several European governments fear that without a cessation of fighting, the war could escalate to the point where Vladimir Putin uses chemical or nuclear weapons.. Hence the tangible uncertainty, especially on the part of France and Germany, regarding the provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine, which would allow it to turn the course of the war against Russia and regain control over the occupied territories..

Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Andrew Michta writes about this in a Politico article.. He adds that the rising volume of this chorus in the West also exposes a lack of strategic imagination about what Europe could become if Kyiv were given significant weapons and support to defeat the Russian army on the battlefield.. This lack of imagination, more than any other factor, explains the low-key trajectory of French and German support for Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to continue to fight but no clear path to victory..

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Similar voices are heard in the US. They insist support for Ukraine distracts from domestic priorities. Other critics of the American position argue that by transferring aid to the Ukrainians, Washington is actually only prolonging their suffering.. And the difference in power between the parties necessarily means that Russia will win.. But in reality, all this talk is leaked by residual thinking from the Cold War, from the point of view of which the Russian Federation is an extension of the USSR and its military capabilities.. This " And this momentum has become particularly strong now that, after three decades of de facto disarmament, most of Europe is left with no real military capabilities to use in the event of a crisis.. Therefore, all these endless fortune-telling takes place, what kind of weapons should not be sent to Ukraine, so that it does not seem like an “escalation”.

Despite this, over the past three months, the West, especially the US, has gradually increased military aid to Ukraine, making Russia pay dearly for Putin's stupidity.. And the structure of the latest US support package was an acknowledgment that it would be a long war.. However, until Ukraine can get serious opportunities to suppress Russian long-range artillery and missiles, this will be an unfair fight with a presumed end.. Putin's forces will continue to burn their way forward. They still hold the corridor along the Black Sea coast and slowly but stubbornly expand the occupied territories in Donbas.

Every nation has a breaking point. And in a war of attrition like the one that is going on now, whoever has more resources and capabilities will eventually prevail.. But it doesn't have to end this way.. The advantage in motivation, training, and especially Western equipment can neutralize the numerical advantage of Russia.

The author proposes to begin by considering the consequences of a hypothetical defeat of Ukraine. At this stage, any truce will allow Putin to maintain control over the conquered territories.. And the rest of Ukraine, which will continue to be under the Russian blockade in the Black Sea, will not be able to support itself economically. More importantly, in a few years, Putin will regroup, rebuild his army and be able to start a new round of conquests to take over all of Ukraine.. Especially if the ceasefire agreement removes all Western sanctions from Russia. Now they are blocking Russian arms production. In such a “third war”, will Ukrainians have the same courage and determination to resist? And will the West again be ready to supply them with weapons and everything necessary? No one can give reasonable answers to these questions.. But it is quite reasonable to assume that in case of defeat in this war, the strength of the Ukrainian people will be further reduced..

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According to the author, right now the biggest obstacle preventing the West from providing Ukraine with all the necessary military and economic support is not its inability to imagine a new configuration of forces in Eastern Europe, which would be based on the corridor of NATO countries from the Black to the Baltic Sea in close alliance with the United States. And given that Finland and Sweden are preparing to join NATO, it can be said that Europe is on the verge of a potential geopolitical reconfiguration, as at the end of the First World War.. The defense of Ukraine is not only a matter of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, although historically these two principles have become the basis of democratic governance.. It is also about driving Russia out of Europe, which means ending three centuries of its imperialist advance..

The independence of Ukraine, and also of Belarus, because Minsk will not remain in Moscow's orbit if Kyiv can defend itself, will end the Russian claim to be the key " Thus, for the first time in modern history, Moscow will have to come to terms with economic and political conditions in order for it to become a “normal” nation-state..

At the geostrategic level, the emergence of a free, independent, and successful Ukraine in alliance with the West will end the two-front crisis that the Sino-Russian alliance is trying to create for the United States.. By protecting Europe's eastern flank and relying on countries that see a long-term alliance with America as vital to their security and willing to do their part to bolster their defenses, the US can safely focus on competing with China.. And all the talk about the so-called "

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In addition, the defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine will open the way to a fundamental reformatting of the balance of power in Europe.. The center of balance will shift from the Franco-German tandem to a wider union of Central Europe, which will include Germany, Poland, the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, as well as Ukraine.

With vast natural resources and some of the best agricultural land in the world, a rebuilt Ukraine—not a post-Soviet state but a prosperous democracy tightly integrated into the European economy—will fundamentally change the dynamics of power both in Europe and the world at large..

The war Putin imposed on Ukraine and the West has already changed Europe. It gave the democratic West an opportunity that comes only once every 4-5 generations.. This is a chance to change the geopolitical map of the continent. Therefore, one should find the courage to help Ukraine win.