Our planet officially crossed the threshold of 1.5 ° C, established as the priority goal of the Paris Climate Treaty, signed in 2015. Despite the promises of humanity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and maintain planetary warming at a level of not more than 1.5 ° C above pre -industrial. In 2024, the temperature on Earth first exceeded this limit and now two independent studies came to the same conclusion: the climate of the planet probably entered a frightening new phase, writes Science Alert.

Good news - last year’s record is still not enough to announce that the Paris threshold has been overcome, since temperature goals under the agreement have been measured for several decades, and not short exits beyond 1.5 ° C..

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In new research, scientists used a completely different indicator: both analyzed historical and climatic data to determine whether very hot years were in the recent past that the future long -term threshold of warming would be violated. The answer turned out to be positive: the results of the study indicate that the record hot 2024 means that the Earth overcomes the limit of 1.5 ° C. Bad news: behind this limit, scientists believe, will follow the catastrophe of natural systems that support life on Earth.

Note that most climatic organizations around the world agree that last year has become the hottest in the history of observations. The global average temperature in 2024 was about 1.6 ° C above the average temperatures of the late 19th century, before people began to burn fossil fuel on a large scale. Recently, on Earth, separate days and months have also been observed, exceeding the warming mark of 1.5 ° C.

Researchers note that the global temperature of the Earth changes from year to year: for example, the temperature jump in 2024 was largely caused by climate change, it was also caused by the natural phenomenon of El Nino at the beginning of the year. At the moment, this trend has been dissipated, and it is predicted that 2025 will be a little cooler.

However, new studies suggest that even one month or year with global warming at 1.5 ° C may mean that the Earth enters the long -term violation of this vital threshold. Both works were carried out independently by researchers in Europe and Canada. In each of the works, scientists were asked the same question: is it a year with global warming above 1.5 ° C a warning sign that we are already crossing the threshold of the Parisian agreement?

In both studies, to solve this issue, observation and modeling of climatic models with slightly different approaches were used. In the European article, scientists examined the historical trends of warming. The team discovered when the average temperature of the planet reached a certain threshold, the next 20-year period also reached this threshold.

This pattern assumes that the Earth reached warming at 1.5 ° C last year and probably entered the 20-year period, when the average temperatures also reached 1.5 ° C. Both studies also show that even if a strict reduction in emissions begins now, the Earth is still likely crossing the threshold of 1.5 ° C.

Researchers came to the conclusion: what humanity will do next is crucial. For decades, it was assumed that the burning of fossil fuel is released to produce energy by carbon dioxide and other gases that heat the planet. However, observations show that greenhouse gas emissions in fact only continue to grow. Since the intergovernmental group of climate experts published its first report in 1990, the annual emissions of carbon dioxide in the world have grown by about 50%. In simple words, the world simply does not move in the right direction.

If the Earth has really crossed a 1.5 ° C mark, and humanity wants to sink below the threshold again, we will need to cool the planet, reaching " Alas, this is a difficult task.

The destructive consequences of climate change are already felt around the world. For future generations, the damage will be even stronger. Unique land systems, such as a large barrier reef, are already suffering because of this warming. Observations show that the oceans are becoming warmer, and the sea level rises, destroying the coastal lines and threatening the sea life.

Forest fires and extreme weather conditions, especially heat waves, become more and more frequent and strong. This exerts pressure on nature, society and our economy.

Fortunately for us, scientists still believe that people can turn the situation, despite the fact that today humanity is in the fight against climate change. The results of two new studies show that we should urgently adapt to further global warming.

Previously, Focus wrote that 20 out of 35 indicators of suitability for life at the limit.