The ambitious scenario of climate change, set forth by the UN climate group, suggests that people have a 50% probability of restraining land warming below 2 ° C by 2100. Note that this is the reserve goal of the Paris Climate Agreement - the main one involves the retention of the warming of the planet on equalization up to 1.5 ° C, but it has already been failed. Now the expert believes that "

The article was prepared and published by the famous climatologist James Hansen, who was previously the leading climatologist NASA. In his work, the scientist came to the conclusion that the climate of the Earth is more sensitive to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, which was previously thought. According to Hansen and his colleagues, the crisis is aggravated by a recent decrease in aerosol pollution blocking sunlight from the shipping industry, which softened part of the warming.

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Now Hansen believes that the ambitious scenario of climate change, which is mentioned in the UN report, is simply " Hansen claims that this scenario is now impossible, and " He claims that the amount of greenhouse gases already thrown into the atmosphere during the burning of fossil fuel means that the intensification of warming the planet is now simply guaranteed.

A new study suggests that the average temperature of the planet will be held at a level above 1.5 ° C in the coming years. This will lead to the devastation of coral reefs and will fuel more powerful storms, while in the end by 2045 the average temperature of the planet will rise to 2 ° C.

However, not all researchers supported Hansen. For example, the former co-chair of the working group on the climatology of the UN Climate Group Valerie Masson-delotot, such statements require " The article is also not published in the journal by climatology and formulates a certain amount of hypotheses that "

In his article, Hansen calculated that the melting of polar ice and the pumping of fresh water to the North Atlantic will stop the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) over the next 20-30 years. The current brings heat to various parts of the globe, and also tolerates the nutrients necessary to maintain life in the ocean. Researchers believe that the AMOC stop is a "

Recall that in 2015, world leaders signed the Paris Climate Agreement, in which they pledged to try to maintain land warming until 2100 at the level of 1.5 ° C above pre -industrial. It is this threshold that is considered critically important for the prevention of the main systems of the ocean circulation, the sharp melting of permafrost and the destruction of tropical coral reefs.

According to the EU climate monitoring system Copernicus, the target of 1.5 ° C has already been violated over the past two years, although the Paris Agreement mentions a long -term trend for decades.

At 2 ° C, the consequences will be even more serious, including the irreversible loss of ice shields of the earth, mountain glaciers and snow, sea ice and permafrost.

The authors of the article admit that the results of their research look very gloomy and anxious, but they also believe that honesty is a necessary component for changes. However, other scientists were careful about Hansen's conclusions.

Previously, Focus wrote that the warmest January in the world in history puzzled scientists: what is wrong with him.