Geologists don't have a crystal ball that can predict future earthquakes, but Japanese seismologists, based on their observations, believe that the likelihood of a major earthquake is gradually increasing. Last year, scientists cited figures that were 10% lower, but today the probability of a catastrophic earthquake has reached 80%, writes IFLScience.

According to the Japan Earthquake Research Committee, the probability that today's largest catastrophic earthquake could occur in the Nankai Trench within the next 30 years is 80%. Something similar has already happened in this region before, and 79 years have passed since the last earthquake. Now scientists say that the likelihood of such an event is growing literally every year..

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The Nankai Trench runs 900 kilometers along the south of Japan's largest island, Honshu.. Researchers note that this subduction zone is located where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts under the Eurasian Plate, making it a hotspot for seismic activity..

Scientists note that the Nankai Trench is notorious for its megaexplosive earthquakes—powerful seismic events that occur when one tectonic plate sinks beneath another, releasing incredible amounts of energy.. Previous studies have already shown that if the Nankai Trench experiences a major shock at some point, it will likely be devastating..

The Japanese government takes this threat seriously, and the Nankai earthquakes are considered a top priority in Japan's disaster management strategy.. The local government is also developing schemes to prepare for a potential release.

Researchers note that one of the earthquakes in Nankai has earned particularly sad fame.. The disaster occurred in 1946: an 8.1 magnitude earthquake killed 1,362 people, destroyed or damaged more than 36,000 homes, and more than 2,100 more were destroyed by a 6-meter tsunami.

Unfortunately, predicting earthquakes is not at all easy, but scientists are using the latest technology to calculate the likelihood that tremors will occur in a certain area at any given time.

Researchers also predict that the mega-explosive Nankai earthquake could be devastating and could cause more extensive damage than the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, with the death toll exceeding 320,000 people. However, scientists once again emphasized that their forecasts are not at all final..

According to Yoshioka Seichi, a professor at the Urban Security Research Center, statistically speaking, earthquakes in this region are likely to occur every 90 to 150 years. At least this is what observational data indicates.. Note that reliable earthquake forecasts must accurately extrapolate three factors:.

Among these three factors, the timing of an earthquake is especially difficult to predict.

Previously, Focus wrote that one event always precedes earthquakes: scientists have finally figured out what it is.