Economist David McCarthy of the University of Georgia and Po-Ling Wang, an expert in risk management and insurance at the University of South Florida in the United States, said that humanity could reach a record life expectancy by 2060. They came to such conclusions by analyzing data on mortality and life expectancy of those born in the same year in 19 developed countries, Science Alert reports..
The current life expectancy record was set in 1997.. Then in the south of France, the super-long-lived Jeanne Calment, who lived to be 122 years old, died.. She set the benchmark for human lifespan. At the moment, there are several dozen people living on the planet at the age of about 110 years, but the chances that they will live to see their 125th birthday are negligible.
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But McCarthy and Wang are more optimistic, believing humans could soon hit a new longevity record.. As the newspaper notes, there are now more centenarians than ever, but so far the “ceiling” of life expectancy is within 110 years..
Scientists used data from a database of human mortality and then applied a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the life expectancy of those born in the same year in 19 different countries that today are considered industrialized.. The researchers also applied a function known as Gompertz's law to better estimate the age at which any person is expected to first reach the estimated death plateau..
Theoretically, such a “Gomperz maximum age” (GMA) should indicate the limit of human lifespan.. If it is relatively constant from one cohort to another, it can be assumed that there is a maximum possible age. And if it increases between cohorts, this indicates that the maximum life expectancy is inherent in our biology..
For most of human history, the GMA has remained relatively stable.. Improvements in sanitation, health care and nutrition have basically enabled more people to reach old age by shrinking the distribution of deaths past a certain level rather than pushing it back.
But it was not always so. For example, in the middle of the 19th century, the GMA increased by about five years for women. A much more pronounced jump in GMA appears to occur among people born between 1910 and 1950..
Currently, they are from 70 to 110 years old, that is, by 2060, some of them may become champions in life expectancy..
According to scientists, the development of medicine and access to social security can lead to the fact that the life expectancy of our descendants will increase by decades. But it's too early to rejoice, because the study is based on many assumptions.. In addition, humanity may not be ready for an increase in life expectancy and the problems that it will entail..