Le Monde: Mortality from Covid-19 pandemic continues to be underestimated worldwide

15 April 2021, 10:10 | Health
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" The counting methods differ from continent to continent, from country to country, "

" This new wave can be explained by more dangerous options first discovered in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, as well as population fatigue in the face of health measures and restrictions, "

" The number also varies depending on the reliability of the health care system, social and statistical systems and the degree of political transparency, "

" In December 2020, the government of Pedro Sanchez had to overestimate the number of deaths for the period from March to May 2020 upwards, as a result of which the figure was 70% higher than the data provided at the time.. At the end of May, the Spanish Ministry of Health reported 27,127 deaths related to Covid-19, which, after being checked by the National Institute of Statistics, increased to 45,684 deaths, "

" Natural population growth, already negative or zero since 2012, fell by 129 thousand in 2020. compared to 36.4 thousand. in the previous year. One of the reasons for this result is an excess mortality from all causes of 20% - a record for the European Union.. Of 486 thousand. deaths "

" In Serbia, for example, excess mortality over the past 12 months exceeds the data of the previous year by more than 15 thousand.. , while the government officially reports only 5270 deaths from SARS-CoV-2, "

" On the last point, the country has a particularly restrictive scoring method, as only patients who died in hospital with several positive tests in their lifetime are counted. "

" Calculations differ from Rosstat data, where higher figures are given. But only at the end of December 2020 did the authorities first mention this discrepancy, which has already become impossible to ignore.. Then Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation for Social Policy Tatyana Golikova cited data on excess mortality observed in the period from January to November 2020 (229,700 deaths more than in the previous year), estimating that "

" Thus, from April 2020 to February 2021, excess mortality is from 376 thousand. up to 415 thousand. people, depending on the points of comparison, which makes Russia one of the countries with the highest mortality rate. As of March 31, the official report showed 96 thousand. deaths due to Covid-19 "

" deaths from the pandemic, that is, about 19% of all deaths worldwide associated with Covid-19. But these numbers are regularly revised at the state level because as of October 2020, the American Medical Association estimated that only 67% of excess deaths reported between March and August 2020 were attributable to the pandemic.. This again allows us to draw a conclusion about the likely underestimation, "

" For example, age-adjusted results from the New York City Health Department as the worst-affected metropolitan area showed that the death rate from Covid-19 is 22.8 per 100 thousand.. people among Hispanics, 19.8 for African Americans and 10.2 and 8.4, respectively, for whites and Asians (this designation in the United States includes Western Asia, including India), "

" announced in mid-March. However, according to the National Register of Deaths (Sinadef), at least 125 thousand. deaths associated with coronavirus, more than double. This gap is only widening: Peru's Ministry of Health only counts deaths confirmed to be positive for coronavirus at the time of death, while Sinadef, for its part, includes deaths "

" deaths, when at the end of March the Ministry of Health quietly admitted another 120 thousand. , as a result of which the total number of deaths exceeded 321 thousand. Excess mortality seriously worsens official mortality rates in this country, not very well accustomed to testing, where people often die at home, "

" WHO acknowledged the seriousness of the situation, but it remains difficult to determine the scale of deaths from the epidemic in the country. While India comes in second among the countries diagnosed with the most positive cases in a year (13.9 million), behind the US and in front of Brazil, the South Asian giant officially reports " deaths, that is, about 3.

4 times less than the United States and more than 2 times less than Brazil in absolute terms, "

" But India is undoubtedly grossly underestimating the death toll, especially in rural areas.. More than two out of three deaths occur at home without a cause of death being identified, and the vast majority of bodies are cremated during the day.. According to Prabhat Jha, a Toronto (Canada) researcher and mortality expert in India, “The underestimation of the number of Covid-19 victims is obvious, but in large cities in relatively modest proportions, between 10% and 20%.. On the other hand, in rural areas the gap with reality can be much wider. "




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