The confrontation between China and the United States in the field of AI is dramatically intensifying. The world has been waiting for several years for a reboot of the outdated fifth technological paradigm to a new sixth one, which will be based, in particular, on information and cognitive mass technologies.
We are talking about the “birth” of a new global mass market and who will produce it and based on whose technologies. The coming years will be a struggle between the USA and China for this mass market and for leadership in the sixth technological paradigm.
Already now, the bigtech market is offering options for investing in shares of Chinese companies specializing in LLM projects - large language models based on an artificial intelligence engine, created using machine learning on global data sets..
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Chinese LLM projects are now the most affordable and most widespread. These are DeepSeek V4 flash (simplified) and DeepSeek V4 pro (analogous to Western GPT-5. 2), GLM-5. 2 by Zhipu AI (Z. ai), as well as Kimi K3 as an antipode to the American Opus-5 and GPT-5. China could capture 70–80% of the AI \u200b\u200bmarket, primarily from Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Among the leaders of the line is the MiMo-V2 model. 5 (Xiaomi) and Hy3 (Tencent), “expert model” with 295 billion parameters (21 billion active). For comparison, Nemotron 3 Ultra from NVIDIA has 550 billion parameters (55 billion active) - the figures are similar, but the context window of Hy3 (256 thousand. tokens) are twice as many, so the model allows you to download entire books and massive codes.
For a long time, shares of Chinese tech giants were less interesting compared to their American counterparts.. But in July 2026, the rapid growth of Chinese bigtech shares began. Chinese companies have cheaper products and lower capital costs, and there is also information that the Celestial Empire is starting mass production of lithographs for creating microchips.
In recent days, the downward correction has continued, although some investors took advantage of this tactical “bottom” to buy shares “cheaply”. Moonshot AI (Kimi) and High-Flyer (DeepSeek) are not yet listed: the rights to them belong to private venture funds, and access to the stock exchange is possible only if the capitalization grows to $50 billion.
Z shares. AI Co. over the entire investment period showed a profitability of 618%, over the last six months - 278%. Xiaomi Corporation - 87% for the entire period and 17% for the last month. And Tencent Holdings Ltd, the largest Chinese tech giant in the field of video games and AI, gave 58,000% during the entire trading period.. It is quite possible that investor cash flows will turn towards Chinese bigtech in 2027.
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As for the “crypto outlook” of the United States: one of the failures in building a new global financial model was the Senate’s withdrawal from voting of Trump’s key initiative - the CLARITY Act, a bill on regulating the crypto market. Congress went on recess until mid-September, and then there are elections. Democrats initiated postponement of hearings.
The bill developed a mechanism for quasi-private money in the form of stablecoins secured by tokenized Treasuries and private corporate assets - this created a liquidity channel for the private economy and a safety channel for refinancing the US government debt with its own rate level, and not that set by the Federal Reserve.. The Fed was prohibited from issuing a digital dollar, so USDT as quasi-private money became an alternative to fiat currencies, which was consistent with the libertarian theory of money of Mises and Hayek.
The Fed, Wall Street and Democrats opposed the model, and the US technological elite, formed on the philosophy of Ayn Rand, and the Republicans were in favor.. But their strength is not yet enough to undermine such a mainstream trend as classical banking.
American hegemony is based on the colossal parameters of accumulated capital. In essence, the USA is the quintessence of Marx’s theory, capital as constantly self-growing wealth. Key capital flows in the stock market are now directed to the AI \u200b\u200bsegment. And US hegemony rests on the dollar as an instrument of global unequal exchange - and this exchange model itself is based on America’s technological and military leadership. This model has two growth accelerators: the stock market and the real estate market..
Mike Dolan, in the article “America's Mass Prosperity Is Greater Than You Think,” described the US economic model as a K-model of rising wealth for the rich and falling wealth for the poor.. How does it maintain electoral stability The fact is that there are a lot of rich people in the USA - there are about as many millionaires as there are poor people, and there are no fewer home owners with mortgages than there are trailer dwellers. The country has 145 million households, of which 70 million are middle class, supported by mortgages and rising property prices and stock markets.
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The stock market is growing at an average of 30-40% per year, and all it needs is a soft Fed policy and another “tech boom”. Today is the boom of AI. About 73 million American households have retirement accounts, mostly in the form of 401(k) plans (an increase of $6.7 trillion. from 2020), and most of them are dominated by shares, in particular AI projects.
What can shake the K-model:.
loss of US military and technological dominance;
regionalization of the United States in the Western Hemisphere;
internal social conflict;
loss of the dollar's status as a leading instrument of global unequal exchange or the collapse of this system itself;
collapse of the real estate and/or stock markets.
Despite my personal belief that America is as stable as ever and the Republican base will only grow stronger, there is still an urgent need for the US to maintain positive liquidity flows into the AI \u200b\u200bsector. If they lose this sector, they will lose stock market leadership and ultimately world hegemony. But the first “glitches” are already there: during the June IPO, SpaceX shares rose to $160. , then on “hype” - up to $200. , but have now fallen to $111.
What is the average level of revaluation of US bigtech flagships From 100% for military-industrial complex companies to 50% for companies relying on AI, and up to 20–30% for hardware developers for the AI \u200b\u200bsector. But this revaluation will only work in the event of a deep downward market correction.
So, the competition for the mass market of the sixth technological order between the USA and China is moving to stock exchanges, where there is a fierce struggle for global investments, and the task is to skim off the maximum “cream” during the IPO and finance technological capital investments.
Shares of Chinese memory chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) soared 531% on the first day of trading on the Shanghai Exchange's STAR Market - from 8.66 to 54.65 yuan per share, and capitalization rose to 3.66 trillion yuan ($541 billion).. CXMT surpassed China's largest private bank, ICBC, and its IPO became Asia's largest this year and the largest offering in the history of the Chinese semiconductor market..
Meanwhile, Alphabet received negative net cash flow for the quarter for the first time since reporting.. It is quite possible that the trajectory of US big tech is moving not only towards the end of the “major IPO” cycle, but also towards the end of the growth cycle, similar to the dot-com crisis of the early 2000s.
Modern monetary policy makes it possible to prolong the cycle of irrationality of stock market growth while it costs the Fed less than its decline. But does the Fed have enough capacity
The Federal Reserve is also hanging on to the US government debt system, which has grown to $40 trillion.. with a GDP of $32 trillion. To double the debt from $20 trillion to $40 trillion.. it only took 9–10 years, and by 2050 it will amount to 200% of GDP. This does not mean a default, since the US is printing the dollar, but it does mean that the geopolitical potential of the US will be tangled by the threads of national debt - like Gulliver, who was tied in thousands of knots by the Lilliputians. Then a significant part of the federal budget will go to debt servicing and will exceed spending on the military, infrastructure and economic stimulation.
Only the Fed's zero rate policy or deflation could save the situation, but such a scenario is unlikely: the service sector and the labor market will drive inflation. And deflation, although theoretically will reduce the cost of debt servicing to zero, will sharply increase the indirect burden of repaying its “body” due to a reduction in the GDP deflator. As monetarist Irving Fisher said: then “debt overcomes the process of repayment”.
At the same time, China plans to become a technological superpower by 2050. According to Western analysts, the real value of US GDP will then be $37 trillion.. , and China - $42 trillion. That is, China will become the number one economy in terms of nominal GDP (in terms of purchasing power parity it is already number one in the world).
The confrontation is escalating, and that is why Xi Jinping will make an unscheduled visit to the United States on September 24, 2026. The presidents will discuss the topic of AI, or more precisely, the creation by China and 28 other countries in Shanghai of the World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO).
In the 21st century, the new world-system will be modeled around the sovereignty of the core of AI development, and there will be two such projects: American and Chinese, plus a European sub-project, which sooner or later will join one of the leaders. WAICO is a new intergovernmental organization designed to become a platform for synocentric cooperation of participating countries in the development of joint AI projects.
WAICO composition: Algeria, Belarus, Brazil, Cambodia, Cameroon, China, Congo, Cuba, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lesotho, Malaysia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, Senegal, Serbia, South Africa, Tajikistan.
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China's advantage in the development of AI is the absence of a moral filter, which the West still has (in particular, we are talking about the position of the Catholic Church): it came to the point that Peter Thiel called the Pope a “Chinese agent” because of his position on restrictions in the development of AI.
Signing the WAICO agreement for 29 countries is identical to entering into the Sinocentric model, because AI becomes a marker of belonging to one or another world system: equipment for mobile communications, server storage of data, purchase of weapons - all these are issues of geopolitical alliance, and you cannot be “friends” with the United States and at the same time cooperate in the field of AI with China. The list will most likely be adjusted in both directions.
As a result, we will get a Chinese “short list” of allies in the field of AI and an American. The winner will be the one who can launch a mass market of cognitive products, affordable for the price and quality of technology..
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