A change of prime minister and government is the bird in the hand that Vladimir Zelensky is forced to content himself with instead of the bird of an election in the autumn sky. The stars have aligned. Europe gave money. Oil refineries and Russian tankers are on fire. Owners of apartments, rooms and hotels on the South Coast, who drank the blood of all Soviet, Ukrainian, and then Russian citizens, are severely punished. And the President gave a stern answer to the Poles, towards whom there has always been an ambivalent attitude. Each electoral group received its own energy drink, and all at once, instead of being doomed to peace through compromise, they were inspired by the idea of \u200b\u200bpeace through victory.

Sociologists confirmed the mood of society, and the results of surveys were placed on the president’s desk with the comment: “Now there are better trends, everything is growing.”. According to the Rating group, in June 45% of Ukrainians confirmed that the state is developing in the right direction, while in February there were 6% fewer who were confident in this. 78% of our citizens look with hope at the future of Ukraine - an increase of 5% in six months. 68% of Ukrainians approve of the activities of President Vladimir Zelensky, and 32% of all respondents surveyed are ready to vote for him in the first round of the presidential election.

This is the plateau of a leader “who will lead us through the war” (despite serious corruption scandals in his inner circle, mobilization problems, etc.): a year ago Zelensky had almost the same figure, but Zaluzhny then had 25%, and now - 16%. It was on this wave that there was a willingness to go to the polls. After all, holding them against the backdrop of martial law ensured the concentration of administrative, financial, security and media resources in one hand.

But in order to eliminate surprises and win convincingly in the first round, Zelensky needed to resolve two issues. The first is to remove significant competitors from the path: the current Ambassador to Britain Valery Zaluzhny, the head of the OPU Kirill Budanov and the Minister of Defense Mikhail Fedorov. Fedorov immediately renounced his claims to the presidency, which he announced not only to his team, but also publicly in his last sensational interviews. Zaluzhny made it clear that not everything is so simple. And Budanov directly stated that since Zaluzhny is coming, then he must go too. Like, Zaluzhny’s votes flow not to Zelensky, but to Budanov. The president, of course, figured out this trick and realized that he would not be able to get rid of Zaluzhny and Budanov in the presidential race, if it happened in the fall..

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The second insurmountable difficulty was the lack of ready-made changes to the election law. And David Arakhamia, after consultations with the vice speaker of parliament Alexander Kornienko, who was responsible for its preparation, stated to the president that it was impossible to prepare these changes before mid-October. Therefore, the festival of expression of will is most likely postponed to spring.

A folder called “Elections during martial law” is always on the president’s desk for one more reason: his main competitors are not even Zaluzhny and Budanov, but time and ratings. Social psychologists are convinced that while the war is going on, the voter judges Zelensky as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and guarantor of security - and this time works for the president. But it will present the bill when the war is over and society begins to evaluate not the leader of the war, but a politician who has something to ask for. Moreover, if peace conditions are difficult and unfair for Ukraine. Bankova’s technologists understand this very well, and Zelensky is always ready to take risks in order to preserve and strengthen power. And not only with elections.

The card has gone! And if you can't play poker, then why not play fool? After all, ratings can be converted into strengthening the government, which should become one of the pillars on the path to future re-election. We cannot believe that the government is being changed in order to more effectively prepare for winter.? Isn’t First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denis Shmygal, who ate all the dogs in communications with donors and knows the energy complex like the back of his hand, not enough for this How can a good specialist and glorious “white collar”, the current head of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, Sergei Koretsky, strengthen him in this matter With his deep, but rather narrow expertise. Or will the government strengthen the police force as defense minister Or the “executioner” at the SBU? Or the inviolable head of the State Financial Monitoring Service, Philip Pronin, is in his place? But the movement!

On Sunday, without warning or hesitation, the president announced a change of government. And yesterday the parliament already voted for the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, brought to this post by the ex-head of the OPU Andrei Ermak. According to the law, all ministers transferred to the status and. , and in the coming days the Rada plans to approve the new prime minister, the Cabinet of Ministers as a whole, as well as two ministers - foreign affairs and defense, which the president personally submits to the deputies for approval. There are still no votes for the appointment of the head of the SBU.

The decision to resign the government was made in an extra-narrow circle. Even the head of the OPU was far from details, unlike David Arakhamia, Rustem Umerov and Ermak remotely. The decision, of course, was made by Zelensky, but the key role in preparing this step belonged to the head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, David Arakhamia. This man has transformed from a commercial infection, the rapid spread of which was fun to watch, into a new support for the president. Former head of the presidential office Andriy Yermak withdrew from active participation in shaping the daily agenda of the authorities. He's still close to the president, but not on hand. With the collective “Ermak”, torn apart by Umerov, Budanov, Litvin, Tatarov, Poklad et cetera, the president feels uncomfortable working. Everyone has their own role, but the team cannot be the master key. But Arakhamia can.

Budanov had no desire to replace Ermak in the shadow functionality that he had been putting on himself for years, like millions of cabbage leaves. And Arakhamia had. Just six months ago it was between Scylla and Charybdis. On the one hand, the president could not hear about him because he considered him a traitor. Arakhamia was indeed the leader of the front (Budanov, Shmygal, Malyuk, Tatarov, Fedorov, Sviridenko), which, taking advantage of the situation of NABU searches at Ermak, opposed him. However, he fought for a place in the sun, responding to Ermak’s constant intrigues. The latter not only put pressure, but temporarily squeezed Arakhamia out of the tax office with colossal losses. On the other hand, Arakhamia is considered the organizer of the processes of illegal payments to people’s deputies in parliament. NABU prepared suspicion for him. This could still result in 12 years in a private room with no grass, no vinyl, no Balenciaga. How did he get out of this situation He became so indispensable for the president that he was forced to ask NABU to take into account the exceptional and uncontested importance of Arakhamia in the negotiation process and the stable work of the Rada during the war. Oh boy!

It cannot be said that Arakhamia has become the new Ermak. Because he is different. The difference between Ermak and Arakhamia is like between dead and living water. Ermak created a vertical, at the peak of which there was one person. Arahamia works horizontally, constantly circulating between people, interests and conflicts. Ermak was next to the president 24/7, and he was exclusively interested in presidential comfort, presidential pleasure and presidential power, which he used in building Zelensky’s monarchy. But he didn't care about everyone else. Arakhamia is alive and walks around the hall, corridors and trump offices, solving and creating problems. He’s like Doctor Aibolit: he can put drops in your ears, protect them from parasites, but at the same time sew on the fifth leg in someone else’s business.

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This is a guy you can rely on. He solves problems not because he manages the system, but because he knows how to stitch its elements together. When Ermak was there, Arkhamiya did everything the same, he was just objectively smaller. But with his quick brain, sincere lack of understanding of boundaries (including the law), immense sociability and unique commercial home, Arakhamia filled all the space vacated by the elephant removed from the president's shop. And when you are present (don’t understand why) at all the president’s meetings, including international ones, you automatically receive the mandate of a tax collector and from the tax back office you multiply it to almost all areas where there is money in the country.

Why does the president need all this Zelensky cannot be alone, he needs a companion. And Arakhamia is a convenient assistant here and right now. Nimble, mellow, not stuffy, cynical. Indecently multitasking: from negotiations with the United States and Russia to calling witnesses in the Nord Stream case as part of a campaign to discredit Valery Zaluzhny. First of all, he convinced Zelensky that he irreplaceably holds the parliamentary majority and is capable of collecting it in different configurations. Zelensky does not accept deputies. He disdains to pronounce this word. But he understands that without relying on the parliamentary majority he will lose the Cabinet of Ministers, and therefore royal power.

Arakhamia has already tasted the monetization of managing the parliamentary majority and now understands perfectly well that in the next parliament neither he nor Zelensky will have such a single canvas to paint on. But no one is going to give up, and if it is not possible to get a whole canvas, then it means you need to sew a patchwork quilt.

To implement this scenario, Arakhamia, together with a fighter from the Monaco battalion, Igor Abramovich (do not confuse the Kharkov oligarch with the Russian one), has been patronizing a party incubator for several years, where good organizers and political strategists have been hired. They have already offered services to various politically active people. It is necessary to form detachments for parliamentary elections? It's easy. Featured in the “Association of Frontline Cities”, the mayor of Kharkov Igor Terekhov and the head of the Nikolaev OVA Vitaly Kim are the work of Arakhamia.

And these are by no means one-time political assignments.. Arakhamia is building its own infrastructure of influence. Knowing that under the behind-the-scenes patronage of Zelensky, it is possible to create and support the sprouts of political projects for every significant piece of the electorate: nationalists, military, quilted jackets, liberals, business executives, anti-corruption activists and others. Zelensky will give him a label, opportunities, a resource, and Zelensky will form a majority in the future parliament, which he will be able to personally influence. It's a kind of unity of fate. He won’t find anyone better than Zelensky. And Zelensky won’t find a better Bender. But if Zelensky needs one chair, then Arakhamia needs 226 chairs.

To solve this problem, a number of prerequisites are needed. And the Cabinet of Ministers, which can be managed correctly, is one of them. Therefore, Arakhamia takes an active part in its formation.. The list of ministerial candidates in the event that someone is cut off by the president is quickly updated by other candidates proposed by the same Arakhamia. The main principle of replacement is responsiveness to the requests of senior comrades.

Candidate No. 1 for the post of Prime Minister Sergei Koretsky is not Arakhamia’s priority. Of course, Shmygal or the highly understandable Terekhov would be better. Koretsky, who was brought to power by Shurma and patronized by Ermak (and it is possible that he reminded the president of him), is not his avatar for Arakhamia, but also not a problem. Koretsky is not seasoned in political battles. Next to him is the tailor-Tatarovsky Valery Pisarenko, who will not teach good things and will not protect him from big ones. The future candidate does not cheat, but carries out instructions. It’s not for nothing that it was he who Ermak and Chernyshov put in charge of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine after Chenyshov was moved to the Ministry of Ed.. A loyal, professional, understanding person who will definitely pick up the phone if he sees “David Arakhamia” on his mobile phone.

Yulia Sviridenko, for example, stopped answering the phone. Because every call to Arahamia requires an answer to a number with nine zeros. Therefore, Arakhamia makes up the Cabinet of Ministers from people who answer the phone and understand that they cannot refuse. Investigators will definitely not need to look for who is whose godfather, brother, partner, etc.. Godfathers fight, relatives kill each other over inheritance, mistresses get boring, former colleagues become impudent. And the new operator of the presidential console simply reads human psychology. Arakhamia is a dog handler who determines who is an uncontrollable animal and who can be trained.

Everyone knows something else: David Arakhamia will never just let anyone take a bite of his sandwich.. . Arakhamia is everywhere today - and businessmen, cigarette and vodka manufacturers on submarines, drug importers, tax officials, gambling owners, individual drone manufacturers and others know about it.. It seems that it’s not for nothing that we called him the “king of money” in this country.

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But Arakhamia doesn’t succeed with everyone. For example, it didn’t work out with Fedorov. This is an old dislike dating back to the times of CRAIL and PlayCity.. In the battle for the gambling regulator, Arakhamia has now won - the PlayCity State Agency has been removed from the Ministry of Digital Development and is in the airless space of lack of control. But things didn’t work out very well with the military-industrial complex (the weapons budget and the weapons business). Arakhamia’s battle with Fedorov overlapped with Zelensky’s wary attitude towards the Minister of Defense. Many believe that, in fact, the movement of beds in the Cabinet of Ministers was started so that the noise would make the removal of Mikhail Fedorov from his post unnoticed.

The head of the Ministry of Defense Mikhail Fedorov has a severe and insurmountable conflict with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky. Even before Fedorov’s appointment (and rumors that he could become Minister of Defense circulated long before he became one) there was a very high probability that the generals would not let him into their fiefdom. But Zelensky, as part of the “post-Midas” facade operation, not only refreshed the presidential office with Budanov’s reputation, but also appointed Fedorov to the Ministry of Defense.

For six months, the Minister of Defense solved problems to the best of his ability, trying not to get into the labyrinth of military bureaucracy and building a parallel ministry nearby in the form of a digital tower. He developed the reform of the army (although it was received with hostility by the military themselves, it was the first real step towards the military personnel), did not renounce the problems of mobilization (the minister said that he would deal with this at the second stage of the reform). He promoted smart commanders. Created a synergy of drones, tied to Ukraine as a testing ground, but for us profitable and important giants of world military technologies. He announced the establishment of order in the procurement of the Ministry of Defense and his constant resistance to the pressure of corruption clans that have been formed in the defense sector for years.

And here the only question was how much patience the president would have, who, according to Fedorov himself, supported him and told him to “act according to his conscience”. Yeah. Less than two weeks after the minister’s high-profile interviews, the whole country is discussing his imminent resignation. President Zelensky preferred not a minister in figures, but a general in lamps. In addition, no one is going to leave unattended the tens of billions that go into our arsenal from the EU and NATO. But Fedorov is definitely not the kind of character who will turn a blind eye to the fact that other people will simply take money from the budget and take it home. We don't think Fedorov is a saint. But he doesn’t like the primitive, and his high efficiency is a priority for the country today.

At the same time, Zelensky understands perfectly well that although Fedorov is not a revolutionary today, no one knows what will go to his head tomorrow if the successes of drones and other transformations that he started and the results of which are really visible on the battlefield continue to be associated with him. Moreover, Fedorov, despite all the important political statements for the president, did not disband his team of political strategists. Who needs this civic visionary presidential candidate Zelensky - definitely not. Therefore, as in that joke, “you need to kill him when he’s young.”.

The President could have stopped the dirty campaign against Fedorov launched in pro-government Telegram channels. But I chose not to.

Fedorov is a bone in the throat for everyone: for Zelensky, Syrsky, Arakhamia, Budanov, Ermak. Therefore, the interests of the state in this situation are of no interest to anyone, excuse the tautology.. And Fedorov will most likely be taken out of power. What can stop the president These are international partners, drone manufacturers, and the military, who are not delighted with the start of the reform, but are encouraged by the changes that have begun to seep even to the front lines. Not to mention the huge number of civilians who consider it their duty to leave a post on Facebook in support of Fedorov. But all this only increases the likelihood that Zelensky will decide to brush Fedorov off the political board. But even if Mikhail Fedorov retains his post, the president will not forget all this protection for him.

The story of Fedorov is important not because we are talking about one minister. It shows that when the composition of the next Cabinet of Ministers changes, the basic settings of the instruments of power remain unchanged: competence has never been the main criterion, and independence still remains dangerous.

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And who is brought into power and strengthened As we said at the very beginning, today there are no votes in the Rada for a new head of the SBU. We are talking about Alexander Poklad, the current first deputy head of the service, a man whose name is pronounced in a whisper in informed circles. Zelensky has long wanted to see Poklad as the main guardian of the inviolability of his power. To tame competitors, political opponents, independent journalists and activists. But the main thing is to neutralize NABU and SAP.

And it must be said, despite the fact that deputies voted unanimously just a year ago to curtail the powers of anti-corruption bodies, many of them understand the risks of such an appointment. Paying tribute to Poklad as a person who is a specialist in very active measures, people are simply afraid to give him and the team he formed uncontrolled control of such a serious instrument as the Security Service of Ukraine.

It must be said that, according to our information, standing on the way to this fateful vote are not only deputies who do not want to take such responsibility before history, but also the current head of the presidential office, Kirill Budanov. There is a long-standing and fierce enmity between him and Poklad over different interpretations of the circumstances and causes of the death of Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation in Belarus in 2022.. We still have to dot the i's in this story, but, according to our information, Kirill Budanov quite openly tells everyone around him, including the president, that he will leave the team if Poklad is appointed head of the SBU.

And what will you and I ultimately get in the coming days Another division of ministries, as sabotage and senseless as all previous divisions and mergers during the war? We will quietly lose Kuleba? According to the principle: “I am not me, and corruption is not mine”. Let's get a prime minister without the set of polyexpertises required for the head of the executive branch? After all, the Cabinet of Ministers is not only about energy. The Minister of Justice, surrounded by Tatarov's deputies? ? Will there finally be at least one visionary in the economic bloc and education Or maybe the smart head of the Foreign Intelligence Service? Subject Minister of Foreign Affairs? Independent and competent head of the tax office?

What will change for us?

Or will we simply be replaced by others watching, gnawing, chewing and sucking the last juices of the country

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