Ukraine asks for mandatory security guarantees to ensure survival. Allies are not yet ready to do it. Despite months of talk on the topic, the Western Alliance is still divided on how to respond to Kyiv's request.. POLITICO writes about this with reference to a survey of five European diplomats..

Should NATO, which Ukraine seeks to join, have this conversation with the entire Alliance Or perhaps the most powerful military forces in the world should provide individual commitments? Are guarantees needed other than NATO membership And officials are also asking themselves the question - what are these “security guarantees”?

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Diplomats say all these questions remain open even if the allies are only five weeks away from meeting in Vilnius at a key NATO summit.. Ukraine set the summit as a deadline, requiring allies to make clear commitments to the meetings to admit Ukraine to the Alliance and provide security guarantees along the way..

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Thus, Kyiv's supporters are facing an uncomfortable reality: many really don't want to give Ukraine a concrete timetable for joining NATO at the moment.. But they also don't want to leave Ukrainians frustrated or vulnerable to another invasion..

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As a result, a number of Western European leaders are increasingly withdrawing security guarantees and offering more optimistic language about membership.. But hidden behind such rhetoric is actual planning, which is nevertheless confusing - a reflection of the difficulty of pushing a heterogeneous group of governments into disputes while fighting is underway in Ukraine..

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NATO? Spectrum of options from Macron and Sunak.

Ukraine wants NATO leaders to give Kyiv a post-war accession roadmap and concrete security guarantees from Western capitals. Several Western leaders have spoken at least verbally about the need for security guarantees in recent days..

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French President Emmanuel Macron backed " And British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak added a vague commitment of his own, saying allies "

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But current and former officials say there is no consensus on providing guarantees — not on what they would mean and what format could be used..

“At one end of the spectrum,” said Camille Grand, a former Assistant Secretary General of NATO, “is full NATO membership.. This option carries with it the ironclad guarantee of Article 5 - an attack on one ally counts as an attack on all allies..

At the other end of the spectrum, he noted, are what could be considered "

There are many “options” between them, he said, from bilateral treaties to actual political commitments, and the challenge is to find the “right place.”.

One of the proposals on the table is the so-called Kiev Security Treaty, a concept developed by the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky together with former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Under this plan, a core group of allies will make binding commitments to strengthen Ukraine's defenses over many years through both military and non-military assistance..

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Separately, a group of former senior Western defense officials and scientists put forward an idea aimed at long-term cooperation and assistance to Ukraine in the rapid expansion of its own defense industry..

It would be " And this will be an "

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However, officials say that when politicians now talk about "

“More often we hear about assurances rather than guarantees,” said a senior diplomat from Central Europe. “It looks like it comes down to the long-term provision of protective equipment”.

Western European diplomat agreed: "

Scandinavian Scenario: Hasty Attack Before Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

Yes, such a plan of Moscow regarding Scandinavia has not been implemented.. But as far as Ukraine is concerned, promises to get more weapons are not exactly what Kyiv wants..

Zelensky increasingly asked - including during a personal speech to European leaders in Moldova - to touch on unbreakable promises that are a stepping stone to NATO.

Stefanyshyn, Ukraine's vice prime minister, clarified that Ukraine wants something like the military commitments that Finland and Sweden received after filing their own NATO bids in the weeks following Russia's invasion..

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At the time, there were fears that Russia could use the period between application and accession to prosecute the two countries, knowing that they could soon fall under the binding Article 5 of the Mutual Protection Alliance.. Several great NATO nations have filled this gap by signaling they will intervene if Russia crosses the border..

“We need clear security guarantees, following the example of Finland and Sweden,” said Stefanishina. And these guarantees, Stefanyshina added, should be valid "

However, this is part of the problem..

The Security Assurance Debate Outside NATO.

Diplomats divided over whether guarantees or assurances should be part of NATO's conversation about Ukraine's bid. Now, most of the people who follow the discussions say that the guarantees debate is likely to take place outside of NATO..

" “I know,” he added, “that there are also discussions and consultations on bilateral agreements between Ukraine and some allies.”.

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But even if the issue is not formally on NATO's agenda, the safeguards debate is now on everyone's mind as allies gear up for the July summit..

“Whether [guarantees] are mentioned in the NATO communique or not, practically they will indirectly affect the alliance,” said a senior diplomat from Central Europe, “so they are pushing this issue out and pretending that this is not a NATO issue.”. , Does not help"

For some officials, the debate over security guarantees diverts attention from the one guarantee they say really matters: possible NATO membership..

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Is any country seriously considering giving Ukraine real bilateral security guarantees Only Article 5 guarantees value,” said the first diplomat from Eastern Europe.

This diplomat argued that long-term arms deliveries "