Since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in Turkey 20 years ago, he was in little danger of losing it.. With his Justice and Development party, he won every presidential and parliamentary election, usually by a comfortable margin.. During this period, he became increasingly authoritarian, exercising undue influence over the courts, the central bank, and other government agencies, intimidating the opposition and independent media.. If the vote is fair enough, Erdogan could very well be ousted by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads a united opposition that seeks to restore democracy, The Economist writes..

Counting of votes and observers.

The first question is whether an accurate vote count will be made.. Opposition politicians claim they have the means to ensure this. The opposition plans to send at least two observers to each of the 192,000 ballot boxes, conduct its own vote count and compare its numbers with those issued at night by the Turkish Election Commission (which supports Erdogan, but is not completely controlled by him). In addition, the public organization Oy ve Otesi plans to send at least 70,000 non-partisan observers. According to Hande Turan, a board member of this organization, in the three largest cities of Turkey - Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara - there were so many applicants that the group closed the registration.. In her opinion, a high level of control means that the risk of voter fraud on a large scale is negligible..

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The aftermath of the earthquake.

A serious problem could be the situation in parts of the country, devastated by a double earthquake in February, which killed more than 50,000 people.. Of the 3 million people displaced by the disaster, only half registered to vote in the places they moved. Turkey has virtually no provision for absentee voting.. Those who will have to return to their devastated hometowns to vote make up about 2% of Turkey's 64 million voters.. The political parties have offered them to return by bus, but many of them will not be able to make this long journey.. It is not clear who will win if the turnout among such voters is low.

Potential loss for Erdogan.

It also raises the question of what Mr. Erdogan will do if he does not get enough votes.. Senior officials reject any suggestion that the president will refuse to hand over power. But dozens of people with a lot to lose, including corrupt officials and businessmen dependent on government contracts, may try to convince him to hold on to power, especially if he loses.. To do this, Mr. Erdogan will need the backing of the bureaucracy and security forces, says Gonul Tol, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank.. " "

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Fraud can spark protests.

Many observers outside of Turkey believe Erdogan cannot afford to lose the election.

The more common view domestically is that he can't afford to buy an election.. Turks Are Convinced Their Voices Matter. The turnout in the last four elections averaged 85%, which puts most European countries in an awkward position.. Past elections were flawed but never bought. Any attempt at electoral fraud or coup could spark massive protests, violence and economic disruption.. The ballot box has become perhaps the last valve for dissent in Turkey: close it and the country could explode.