The All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, headed by the former GRU colonel Vladimir Kvachkov, recently presented its candidate for the presidential elections in Russia, a certain retired captain of the Marine Corps of the Russian Armed Forces Ivan Otrakovsky.

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After watching the video of the candidate, a balding officer with poor diction and lack of charisma, it is hard to imagine that he can really compete with Vladimir Putin. However, the nomination of Otrakovsky fully fits into the Kremlin's strategy to sewer Z-patriots and create a stub for the emergence of a potential leader in this electoral group.

By starting a war against Ukraine, the Kremlin released a genie that will eventually be hard to put into a bottle - radical patriots. Those who categorically disagree with ending the war with Ukraine, completely denying Ukrainians the right to be a separate nation and have a sovereign state.

In Russian society, these are about 20%. This is every fifth Russian! But sociologists note: the number of ultra-patriots is growing by 1-2% per month. This is facilitated by the zombification of the population with state propaganda, and the disappointment of Russians from the discrepancy between propaganda stereotypes and Russian realities, and irritation from military failures, everyday disorder and prosperity of the oligarchs.. Finally, strikes on the Kremlin or the Kerch Bridge also multiply the ranks of Z-patriots.

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Having been cultivating turbopatriots for many years, the Kremlin seeks to use this segment of Russian society for its own purposes..

First, radical patriots provide tangible support for the very idea of \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bwar.. And the death of iconic representatives of the Z-patriots - Daria Dugina, Vladlen Tatarsky - provides the authorities with an additional argument to justify the need for " Secondly, ultrapatriots are one of the resources for replenishing volunteers to participate in a protracted war.. Third, the Kremlin shows the West who can come to power in Russia. Against the background of such speakers of turbopatriots as Igor Girkin broadcasting on YouTube or Yevgeny Prigozhin threatening with a sledgehammer, Vladimir Putin does not look like such a complete scumbag.

But ultrapatriots also carry a certain risk for the authorities: they potentially threaten the stability of the political system, the balance of power between the Kremlin towers and stability in Russian society..

Dissatisfied with Putin’s inability to win the war, outraged by drone strikes on the Kremlin, the speakers of the “angry patriots” predict the collapse of Russian statehood in the event of a defeat from NATO and the “Ukronazis”. They actively criticize the president for inconsistency and blame the military leadership for the failures of the " Demanding martial law and talking about the rampant corruption in the army and shortcomings in providing soldiers.

Although the radical patriots are deprived for the most part of their political subjectivity, the political and informational activity of their speakers - Yevgeny Prigozhin, Igor Girkin, Vladimir Kvachkov, Alexander Dugin, Viktor Alksnis, Pavel Gubarev and others - today is a headache for the presidential administration of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin is not even irritated by criticism, but by the fact that “angry patriots” are trying to dictate the political agenda, urging “wake up and start fighting in earnest”: “The time has come, Vladimir Vladimirovich”.

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The Kremlin is also worried about the speakers' attempts to link ultra-patriotic themes with anti-establishment rhetoric.. In particular, as Prigozhin does, when he is not limited only to the accusations of the governor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglov that he “openly crap” on the issue of “special operation”.

In mid-April, the owner of Wagner PMC published an article “Only a fair fight: no agreement”, in which he spoke out against “near-state elites who act independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda”. In Prigozhin’s view, even in the event of a military defeat, Russia, having thrown off the burden of the “deep state”, will “float up like a huge sea monster, demolishing everything in its path, including the plans of the United States”.

Finally, the Russian government fears the reaction of turbopatriots to the expected Ukrainian offensive.. After all, even if the land corridor in the Sea of \u200b\u200b\\u200b\\u200bAzov, connecting the Rostov region with the Crimea, is only cut, the Russian society will take it as a defeat. And if the Ukrainian territories seized by Russia after February 23, 2022 are liberated? And if Sevastopol, Donetsk, and Luhansk are also de-occupied?

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Will the Kremlin be able to control the ultra-patriots in this situation

So far, the mass protest of radical patriots on the streets of Russian cities looks like a chimerical threat: only 5% of Russians - the most ardent jingoists - are ready to take to the streets, not resigned to defeat or a truce with Ukraine. Russian media write: “Sociologists hired by the Kremlin conclude that the patriotic public, although it was in a state of severe stress due to what the war brought Russia to in the fall, did not become a threat to the authorities, because. criticism remains at the "

The fact that for almost a year now 62-64% of Russians support any actions of the authorities gives the Kremlin confidence in its abilities.. The silent majority, as in the case of the liberation of Kherson and the Kharkiv region by the Ukrainian army, is likely to put up with failures in the war, threatening the world with nuclear weapons over a plastic glass of vodka and talking about the greatness of Mother Russia: propagandists from TV screens will tell that “war.

But while the administration of the Russian president is trying to figure out how to turn a genie, potentially threatening the regime, into its stronghold. And most importantly, this part of society, although not numerous, but extremely aggressive, should not interfere with the re-election of Vladimir Putin in 2024: the Kremlin is already preparing for his impressive victory, which will demonstrate to the Russians, the West and the whole world the popularity of the aging president and the stability of the Putin system.

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Defeats on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian war, mobilization, zinc coffins, the deterioration of the economic situation in the country, the fall in the level of incomes of Russians have not yet affected the rating of the Russian president. FOM polls show: 75 to 81% of respondents trust Putin. Similar data from VTsIOM and the Levada Center. But what will happen to Putin's popularity after the Ukrainian offensive? What rating will he have in March 2024 - against the backdrop of a protracted war and the absence of high-profile victories?

The Kremlin is trying not only to take control of the ultra-patriots, but also to blur this electoral segment, preventing the appearance of a charismatic leader in the upcoming election campaign who can compete with Putin.

Today, it is Prigozhin, and not Strelkov or Medvedev, who is the leader for the majority of radical patriots.. The owner of Wagner PMC, having hooked some strings of the “deep people”, inspires confidence among 48% of Russians, and distrust among 21%! (It is significant that the failed leader of the Z-patriots Dmitry Medvedev is trusted by 48% of respondents, and not trusted by 46%. ) This data is a wake-up call for the Kremlin, where they model the situation with Prigozhin’s participation in the elections and state the risks of his participation for the existing system.

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The administration of the Russian president intends to stop the potential threat, including by using the nomination of an ultrapatriot with low recognition as a candidate for the head of state. As in the case of Ivan Otrakovsky mentioned above. In general, the task facing the administration of the Russian president is either to force the turbo-patriots to vote for Putin in the elections in 2024, or to discourage them from voting, or to force them to vote for a marginal who has no chance..

One of the options for sewerage of Z-patriots, which is being considered in the Kremlin, is the creation of a political party.. Apparently, they have not yet decided which option to choose: whether to create a party with Prigozhin’s participation on the basis of A Just Russia or “push” Prigozhin’s separate political project. And in general, should such a project be created, the risks of which may outweigh the potential benefits?

At the same time, other players also want to ride this wave of Z-patriotism.. In particular, Konstantin Malofeev.

On the basis of the Orthodox fundamentalist movement " However, apparently, this political force has no electoral prospects..

Today, the Kremlin does not yet see radical patriots as a serious threat to the regime.. Rather, they are opportunities for realizing their domestic political and military goals.. However, this does not mean that one day Putin will not be convinced that the Z-patriots pose a threat to his regime.. And then the flywheel of repression will be spun against them, as against Alexei Navalny and his supporters.

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