In March, the average salary in Ukraine may increase compared to February by 0.5-1.5%, or approximately 150-450 UAH, due to a shortage of personnel and seasonal economic recovery. At the same time, the gap between industries will remain; IT specialists now earn the most, while the budgetary and cultural sectors remain with the lowest incomes. Such thoughts were voiced by economic experts Oleg Pendzin and Andrei Zablovsky in a media commentary, analyzing current trends in the labor market. According to their estimates, business is gradually adapting to wartime conditions, and staff shortages and seasonal economic activity are forcing employers to reconsider wage levels. Experts identify several key factors that form the upward trend. First of all, this is a shortage of labor, especially in blue-collar and technical professions.. Mobilization and migration have reduced the supply of talent, while business demand remains stable or even growing. The second factor is increased competition for qualified workers, when companies are forced to increase salaries in order to retain staff.
The gradual adaptation of enterprises to the realities of war also plays an important role, which makes it possible to carefully increase the wage fund. Separately, experts note the spring revival of economic activity, in particular in the agricultural sector, where the demand for labor traditionally grows.
Pendzin predicts that in March the average salary could increase by about 1.5% - this is about 400-450 hryvnia. He points out that the state budget for 2026 includes an average salary of UAH 30,032, but this figure is likely to be reached or even exceeded in the first half of the year. According to him, the labor market is still feeling the effect of the January increase in the minimum wage, and the reduction in the number of specialists in shortage professions is pushing employers to more rapidly increase wages in these segments.
According to Pendzin, the incomes of builders, drivers, engineers, technologists and highly qualified IT specialists are growing fastest.. At the same time, state employees can hardly count on a significant increase, and office workers, particularly in sales, will have to increase their income through their own results and intensification of work.
Zablovsky is somewhat more restrained. He estimates the possible increase in average wages in March at 0.5-0.7%, which is equivalent to approximately 150-200 hryvnia. According to him, there are no official data for February yet, but the estimated average salary is 28.8-28.9 thousand. UAH.
March is traditionally a month of revival of business activity, especially in the agricultural sector, which ensures positive dynamics.
Zablovsky emphasizes that the imbalance between industries is only increasing. The highest salaries remain consistently in IT and telecommunications - more than 75 thousand. UAH, while the lowest figures are recorded in the sphere of culture and creative industries - at the level of 17-18 thousand. UAH. Therefore, the overall increase in average wages does not mean a uniform increase in income for all categories of workers.