The winter will be very difficult... No one knows how much. In short, there is no gas for the normal passage of winter, and it is unlikely that there will be. So far, it is not enough even for scenarios with minimal consumption - only for the population and heat generation. For industry and energy, in fact, there is no gas at all.

Question: where to get it and how to pay?

So far, domestic production has not fallen very much, but the key Kharkov, Poltava and Sumy regions are in the zone of fighting and shelling, and Russian tanks in Sumy Akhtyrka were burning right next to oil wells. According to the results of the year, gas production losses are still expected at the level of 8–10%. Naftogaz hopes to produce 12 billion cubic meters by the end of the year, another 5 billion will be provided by private production and a billion by Ukrnafta. In total, this is 17–18 billion cubic meters. And much more is needed.

Saves a little the presence of natural gas reserves in underground storage. We came out of winter with reserves of 9 billion cubic meters, and now in storage - 10.3 billion. Basically good. The problem is that almost half of this gas, or 4.7 billion cubic meters, is a buffer gas needed to maintain pressure in the reservoir.. To raise it is to ditch the underground vaults. So for many years it was framed with the euphemism " But perhaps at least partially.

In general, everything is difficult.

Back in early May, NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine presented a program for passing the winter according to a tough scenario: it was supposed to increase reserves to 12.6 billion cubic meters by November. So little storage in storage facilities has never been planned (the minimum was in 2016 - 14.6 billion cubic meters, that warm winter was enough back to back).

However, even for this it would be necessary to import 2.7 billion cubic meters and also (for the first time in history) buy gas from private traders. More than a third (1.8 billion) of 5 billion cubic meters of privately produced gas were bought out.

In total, it was planned to allocate almost UAH 190 billion (USD 6.6 billion) for the purchase. Gas turned out to be prohibitively expensive, but even in this scenario it was not enough, and it was planned to continue imports in the first quarter of 2023.

In total, the NAC wanted to import almost 4 billion cubic meters until the spring of next year to overcome the cold weather. However, the Cabinet of Ministers did not inspire plans to go through the winter at a super-minimum, and in June the prime minister announced new tasks.

Now, instead of 12.6 billion cubic meters of gas, it is planned to bring reserves to “at least 19 billion cubic meters” by the beginning of the heating season. And plans for the purchase of imported gas before the start of the season more than doubled - 6 billion cubic meters. At current market prices, its value will be about $8 billion.. This is a serious challenge.

The figures are, of course, beautiful, but unrealistic. And this worries: there is a war, the tasks should be set real.

Although the announced figures are largely public, different options are being considered.. Several scenarios for the development of events have been calculated for maximum readiness for the heating season. The volume of gas production in them ranges from 16 to 19 billion cubic meters. The lower production limit is significantly worse than the one announced by NAK. The country's consumption in the amount of 21 to 24 billion cubic meters is also significantly less than last year's 26.8 billion. Industry is in a particularly bad situation: gas demand is more than halved to 4 bcm. The Russians have already destroyed the Mariupol group of consumers, and now their shells are blowing up the Severodonetsk Azot.

However, in any scenario, buying gas will require a lot of money, which the country does not already have.. NAC has already voiced the calculations of how much it needs. General conclusion - a hole on a hole. And even optimists do not believe that debts will be returned.

It is supposed to "

Interestingly, the Ukrainian side plans to settle accounts with the United States after the domestic gas production is increased.. “They were surprised to hear this idea, but they took it well,” said Yuriy Vitrenko.

To be honest, after the enchanting failure of the program to increase its own production by 2020, the reason for surprise, alas, is significant.. But help is really needed.. Six billion by November looks unlikely, but three or four over the winter would be very useful.

Although lend-lease money is October at best. It's a bit late... Probably, the European Union will throw something else, but before that we will have to work on other sources.

From the good - gas (at least in plans) has fallen in price. Until recently, they were going to buy it for almost one and a half thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters (including on the domestic market). But now on Eurohubs it can already sometimes be purchased for about a thousand.

They are going to sell to the population for UAH 7,420 ($250. ) per thousand cubic meters, that is, several times lower than the European price. Partially, this allows the low cost of production from old deposits, but importing something, let alone investing, with such accounting will no longer work.. Moreover, judging by the words of the prime minister, the government is going to leave such prices until next spring (while they were extended until August). According to the calculations of Naftogaz of Ukraine, the consumption of the population will be 7.7 billion cubic meters (in 2021 - 8.6 billion), enterprises of heating and communal services - about 5.5 billion cubic meters (in 2021 - 6.3 billion).

The numbers depend on the situation at the front and the level of enemy attacks on infrastructure. The same Severodonetsk thermal power plant or the defeated Akhtyrskaya will definitely not work this year.

But even the reduced volume of consumption of the population and district heating exceeds the production of NAK under the most optimistic scenario (hello, the failed program to increase its own gas production).

At the same time, Naftogaz was hung up on providing gas to customers of Firtash's regional gas companies (but not fundraising, by the way). Now it has added about 8.8 million new consumers. You could say his dream came true.. True, partially and not in the way I wanted.

So again, imports and problems of both money for gas and the availability of gas itself.

Now, in fact, the system is filled with gas from domestic production and Russian gas. Moscow has played the game of reducing the pressure in the pipeline more than once and almost certainly can repeat it again or even interrupt the transit.. The scenario against the backdrop of missiles and shells falling on the country is by no means fantastic.

Although the possibilities for physical imports from Europe have expanded, the question arises: do neighboring countries have free gas? With him in the European Union this season will be very difficult.

So it is unlikely that it will be possible to urgently buy on the market in case of force majeure, especially since with increased demand, prices will definitely jump.

The Cabinet of Ministers has already created a headquarters that is preparing for the heating season 2022/2023. It will be headed by the Minister for the Development of Communities and Territories Alexei Chernyshev. The headquarters will include local authorities, heat suppliers, the regulator and representatives of Naftogaz of Ukraine. The task is to balance the power system, repairs and prompt problem solving.

Headquarters is not bad, but here is its level. With all due respect to Mingromad, it should be headed by at least a Deputy Prime Minister, and with broad powers.. If anyone thinks that the war has canceled the squabbling of departments on the topic “who is in charge of whom”, then this, unfortunately, is not so.. And the task of the headquarters, if you need more than just a sign, is more than serious.

Now the fire is being extinguished, but we will have to think about what will happen next. This winter it will be much cooler in the apartments, even if we are lucky with the weather. And this is not the last winter. It is clear that now the government is working on the principle of “we could stand for a day and hold out at night”, but we will have to think about the future. International assistance is not eternal, and you will have to swim out yourself.

It is quite possible that “potbelly stoves” will be needed somewhere (sorry, solid fuel boilers), the maximum transition to biomass, thermal modernization, and so on and so forth. In general, everything that should have been done 10-15 years ago. It's too late to move now, of course, but there is no choice.

Winter will indeed be hard, but we will break through. But what conclusions we will draw and what the next winter will be depends on us..

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