According to a National Bank survey, in the third quarter of this year, Ukrainian enterprises maintained positive assessments of the development of business activity over the next 12 months. At the same time, business expects an increase in the production of goods and services, despite a moderate increase in inflation and exchange rate expectations. NBU reports this.

The business expectations index (BII) amounted to 102.5% compared to 103.1% in the second quarter of 2025.

Optimistic estimates remained in terms of product sales volumes, investments in machinery, equipment and inventory, as well as the financial and economic state of enterprises. Enterprises in 15 regions and most types of activity expected a revival of business activity, while estimates regarding the future number of employees remained restrained.

An increase in production volume is predicted by respondents from 12 regions and most types of economic activity. Energy and water supply enterprises, large companies and those carrying out only export operations have the highest expectations..

As for inflation, expectations rose to 11.4% compared to 10.9% in the previous quarter, and the share of respondents expecting inflation of more than 15% increased to 22%.. Exchange rate expectations increased to 44.11 UAH/USD, with 60.2% of respondents predicting an exchange rate higher than 43.50 UAH/USD.

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However, the financial and economic state of the business remained negative: the balance of responses was minus 4.5% compared to minus 5.3% in the second quarter. At the same time, positive expectations for the state of enterprises in the next 12 months amounted to 1.7% versus 2.4% in the second quarter.

The most optimistic forecasts come from energy and water supply enterprises, processing industries and agriculture.