Donald Trump expanded the increased duties for the entire globe, including the islands where only penguins live. Customs tariffs announced by the White House exceeded all the most daring expectations and sowed clear anxiety. The world is preparing for a global recession, but panic early.

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A sharp change in the course.

An explanation of the methodology for establishing tariffs from the Trump administration fundamentally shifts emphasis in the motives of the US tariff war. Its main goal is now to shift the existing trading balances in favor of the States. Countries that had a positive trade balance with the United States (that is, sold them more than they bought from them), received rates that are half of the ratio of the US share in their general export. Countries that had a negative or conditionally equal balance of foreign trade with the United States received a fixed plus 10%. That, according to the conviction of the formulas, should finally reduce the deficit of US foreign trade to zero.

Recall that initially the purpose of the tariff war was to stimulate the return of American manufacturers home. We have already explained that the main product of the United States is services, the production of which was concentrated by the domestic market, and the production of goods were transferred to other countries with cheaper labor and logistics by closer raw materials, primarily to Canada, Mexico and China. So Trump's preliminary plan consisted in transferring these industries back to the United States.

But we are all witnesses that just the nearest Canada and Mexico avoided another increase in duties, and not because they had already received a 25% allowance for the import of all goods. Indeed, then the Trump administration clarified that the increased duty will only be used for goods outside the framework of the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA). In this case, very large sectors are covered by agreement - agriculture, automotive, Pharma, IT and others. So these two countries as a result escaped the worst script in which all existing chains of joint production were torn and the main sales market was closed, and the United States is no longer so afraid of the risks of commodity deficit for the main consumer products.

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At the same time, the fight against foreign trade deficit came to the fore in the Tariff War, which in the States is almost 4% of GDP and remains permanent since the 70s of the last century. In chronically negative indicators, the sensation of deception is clear. Like the enemy. He determined his Trump during his first presidency, noting that the share of China in the foreign trade deficit from the beginning of the zero has confidently increased from the fifth part to half. Duties increased then then.

In 2024, the share of goods received in the United States without duties was 99.9%for Mexico, 98.2 for Canada, and China had only 38%of China. But there were no Dragon duties, the average tariff for Chinese goods, taking into account the volume of trade, still barely reached 3%. Of course, this is significantly more than 0.12% in Canada, but with the current 54% not to compare.

However, more stringent conditions for China did not affect the trade deficit, it still grew up, since Chinese goods on American regiments happily replaced imports from other countries, in particular from Vietnam, South Korea and India.

The offensive by a wide front.

So, this time Trump went a wide front, not forgetting about anyone. Duties in total are imposed on 180 countries of the world, of which 60 - received rates higher than “universal” by 10%.

Actually, the scale of the introduction of new customs tariffs causes great concern in the world, up to talking about the global recession and advice from the Americans from quite sane analysts to make stocks of soap and toothpaste. Panic is clear: the forecast, taking into account such a number of countries, commodity operations, production chains and possible mirror answers, is impossible even during the active use of AI.

However, something is already clearer now clear-the main blow of the United States was inflicted on the second economy of the world.

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After the introduction of 54% of duties, only direct losses of China from limited access to the US market can reach $ 510 billion. The goods for which will be recorded the largest minus, we simulated using ObservATory of Economic Complesity (see. rice. 1). As you can see, this is not a raw material, but a list of rather specific finished products, for which buyers for replacement should be sought only in mature economies, and taking into account Chinese volumes - in large mature economies. So it’s unlikely that China will be able to quickly and without problems find the replacement of the States and will definitely encounter big problems. Especially if on the domestic market you now have deflation and a decline in demand.

Chinese economists are sure that the catastrophe will not occur, the Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has already predicted a reduction in the Celestial Empire by 1.7%, a decrease in total exports - by 4.5, and exports in the United States by 30%. The Gorky taste is added by the fact that many Chinese manufacturers on the eve of the election in the United States began to transfer production to Vietnam and Thailand, but after Vietnam received a fee of 46%, and Thailand - 36%, these investments turned out to be in vain.

There would be a lot of people who wanted to replace China in the States, but not all of them are now on equal terms. From countries that could quickly enter the American market with similar goods (see. rice. 2), only Mexico and Canada remained, which was returned by USMCA.

So while East Asia, led by China, will weaken, North America will clearly become stronger.

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Influence on the EU will not be so dramatic, but you can’t call it inconspicuous either. From the countries of the Union, the main trading partner of the United States is Germany, the top five also include Ireland, Italy, France and the Netherlands. Accordingly, it is these economies of the Union that will suffer most of the introduction of 20% of the duties by the United States. Germany and Italy mainly due to the supply of cars, Ireland - medicines, vaccines and chemicals, France and the Netherlands - oil products. The volumes of supplies are relatively small, it will not be difficult to redirect them to other markets, but the country's temporary shock will still experience: Germany in the amount of $ 156 billion. , Ireland - 71.6 billion, Italy - 70.5 billion, France - 51 billion, Netherlands - $ 32.9 billion.

And what is Ukraine? We will be frank, the announced 10% duties are unlikely to significantly undermine the Ukrainian economy. Our trade with the United States has always been sluggish, with rare exceptions not duty -free and mainly focused on metallurgical products, the manufacturers of which after a full -scale invasion of permanent crisis. For other goods (such as vegetable oil, fruit juices or chocolate), supplies are so insignificant that finding other buyers on them will not be a problem. But do not rush to rejoice, the global crisis is unlikely to go around us, since it may well reduce the demand for Ukrainian export from our main partners if they are weakened.

Probably, the pressure on the part of large businesses to open access to the capacious and solvent market of the Russian Federation will also increase, now inaccessible to the majority due to sanctions, but very tempting under the current conditions.

Trade with the states for most of the main trading partners was very attractive - the average duties rate was about 3%, a significant amount of goods was supplied at all at zero rates. And for all, without exception, these conditions will no longer act, which will not pass unnoticed.

Global shock.

After the latest customs decisions, the average effective customs rate in the United States will increase to 22% with 3%, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates, and the forecast of the president of the Inflation LLC OMAIRA Sharif - from 25 to 30%. But even universal 10% - a lot if your country actively traded with the United States.

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The chief economist of Moody's Analytics, Mark Zandi, noted that the current increase in duties is quite comparable to the import duties that the country introduced in the 1930s and which contributed to the great depression. Now the US economy is more strong, therefore, there is no question of depression, but a recession, that is, a long decline in economic activity in all sectors, and stagnation (lack of economic growth) are the main consequences of the current customs policy of the White House, according to the conviction of the economist Moody's.

Economist Sam Tombs with Pantheon Macroeconomics calculated that with other equal, the inflation rate in the United States could grow from 2.8 to 4.8%. We can’t scare us with such figures, but for the stability of Americans, this is a tangible increase, with a “covid” crisis, the highest inflation rate recorded in the United States was 5.6%.

However, over time, some market “compensation” is possible - by reducing the volume of imports, the dollar will be strengthened, which in the future may have somewhat reduced imports to the Americans. Also, American analysts hope that local distributors who have earned well on duty -free supplies for years, will be shared with consumers “tariff burden” and will not lay in final prices all expenses associated with rising duties.

There are expectations that the US Federal Reserve will try to soften the situation, although its decisions will not be simple.

On the one hand, an increase in inflation will require a strict monetary policy from them, that is, increasing the key rate. At the same time, support for economic growth and deterrence of unemployment will require, on the other hand, a decrease in the key rate and monetary softening regime.

Actually, the choice of the federal reserve system, among other things, will determine the depth of the global crisis, since the Fed’s accounting rate directly affects the US stock market - a bouquet of global companies. If the rate rises, then, on the one hand, the expenses of companies for servicing debts are growing, which all of them have, which means that the prices of companies are reduced on the other hand, because they are mainly tied to predicted future cash flows. Actually, the markets have already reacted with light panic: the Dow Jones index lost 2.7%, the S\u0026P500 index - over 3.2, NASDAQ index - 4%.

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So, we have the following factors that can potentially shake the world economy: in fact, the unprecedented scale of the distribution of duties and the size of the rates; the probability of stagnation in the first economy of the world, which will affect all its partners; its indirect impact on the stock market and the profit of global companies; The expected decline in the second economy of the world and influence on its main partners; possible mirror duties in response from other countries.

There will be so much cooling that it will not seem enough, but it is too early to panic.

Global markets experienced a lot of shocks and always adapted to a new reality faster than forecasters expected. Additional diversification, as well as insignificant cooling, may well be not torture, but health procedures. Moreover, Trump's arrogant duties, introduced without any consultations with the World Trade Organization, put the same fat cross on international economic law as Putin's invasion of Ukraine put on international law. So it's time to temper.

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