The banking system of Ukraine on the eve of the war was in good shape. There was enough cash in bank accounts (in the form of balances on correspondent accounts and NBU certificates of deposit). This is what made it possible to survive the outflow of cash through the panic of the first days.. Experts of the project “What’s with the economy” write about this?

It is noted that not a single bank fell, two Russian state-owned banks (Prominvestbank and a daughter of Sberbank) were withdrawn from the market. Their depositors will be paid money by the Guarantee Fund.

Since February 24, the NBU has issued UAH 125 billion in refinancing to banks, and also reduced pressure on the hryvnia due to foreign exchange and import restrictions.

Non-cash payments have been going smoothly since the beginning of the invasion.

What will happen next?

It is expected that the volume of problem loans in several years will exceed the level of 2014-2015.

The economy contracted by almost 50% - this is also a rough estimate of the losses of the banking sector.

They will have to endure the currency shock a little later - while the NBU has fixed the rate, but this cannot last forever.

In all likelihood, after the shock experienced, the system will be transformed. Private banks will be heavily dependent on NBU refinancing loans. And the share of the state in the sector will increase.

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Earlier, the National Bank introduced certain rules in connection with the declaration of martial law throughout Ukraine..